Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Super Bowl is almost here, but we still have time to get those final bets down. Some of the prop numbers and betting lines have moved which create value that might not have been there earlier in the week.
BetMGM has a special bonus for the big game with a 100% deposit match up to $560 for new signups. After you do, here are three of my favorite plays to use that free money on.
Top 3 prop bets at BetMGM for the Super Bowl
Here are three prop plays I am looking at on BetMGM.
Cooper Kupp Scores Yet Again
(Anytime touchdown, -165)
Cooper Kupp has had 20 touchdowns on the season. He’s scored in five straight games and eight of the last nine. He’s had a TD in 13 of the 20 games the Rams have played this season, meaning he has scored in 65% of games. Our Jeff Ratcliffe has him projected for an 80% chance to find the end zone, which means fair value on Jeff’s number is -400. This is sitting at -190/-200 on Caesars and DKSportsbook, so the discounted price on BetMGM is the lowest in the market for a Kupp TD.
Matthew Stafford Is Held in Check
(Under 284.5 passing yards, -115)
The Bengals defense rushes three and drops eight more than any other team in the league. They force you to beat them by running and dinking and dunking down the field this way. It is a bend-but-don’t-break style of defense. They have executed it well, as no QB has thrown for 300 yards against them since Week 8 when Mike White and the Jets did it. Don’t expect Matthew Stafford to go crazy here.
Kendall Blanton Gets Plenty of Work as a Fill-In
(At least 5 receptions, +200)
Tyler Higbee is ruled out, and that means Kendall Blanton should get all the snaps he can handle in the Super Bowl. Not only that, but you have a tough matchup on the outside for Odell Beckham, a likely double-covered Kupp, and a Van Jefferson that is less than 100% against a team that plays a shell eight-man zone more often than any other NFL team did in 2022. Blanton had 5 catches last week against a tougher SF defense and he was not even in for all the snaps, as he didn’t really come on until after Higbee went down. +200 is a nice payout for a guy who is set to be Stafford’s security blanket in this one.
