NBA Best Bets of the Day (12/2)
Alex Christenson
There’s no rush quite like the rush of being right about a player no one else wanted. “Pure elation” is the only way to describe the feeling of watching your 3% rostered receiver catch his second TD on the way to 150 yards. We are forever chasing this feeling in DFS, but it’s not just about the feeling. Contrarian upside plays are the keys to GPP takedowns. The difficulty is finding them.
Rarely will we find players who are under-rostered in an obviously great matchup. Not never, but rarely. If a player is facing a bad defense, with a high team total, everyone knows that. These days, in order to find a great matchup that no one else knows about, we often have to go deep into the data with StatsHub — these plays will be highlighted as StatsHub Specials. Or, we can rely on the GPP Scores (found on the ownership page or in the optimizer) to tell us who’s under-rostered for myriad other reasons. In either case, here are my Top 10 plays under 10%. This week, as you’ll soon be able to tell, is all about stacks. The first two are easy to identify as potential slate winners, but I can easily see the third (No. 6 and No. 7) being the key to the slate and the stack that makes us all rich.
10 Under 10% for DFS Week 9
1. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders — StatsHub Special
Sometimes it’s easy to overthink things in DFS. Jayden Daniels this week is the epitome of “keep it simple, stupid.” He basically has a 20-DK-point floor (unless he gets injured again), and choosing who to stack him with is super easy (more on that in a second). The Giants are the eighth-best matchup for QBs and they’ve allowed the most scramble yards in the league. Yeah, we have scramble yards allowed in StatsHub — just use this advanced filter:
Daniels doesn’t just have the best GPP Score among QBs — he has the best GPP Score on the slate.
2. Terry McLaurin, WR, Washington Commanders
Terry McLaurin has at least 98 yards in four of his last six games and is now up to four TDs on the season. He has been everything we thought he could be with a real quarterback, yet he’s consistently low-rostered. The Giants are the 10th-best matchup for WR1s, and McLaurin has next to no target competition.
He has the fifth-best GPP Score among WRs so again, we probably shouldn’t overthink this one.
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