Tom Brady 2022 Prop Bets: Passing Yards, TD Predictions

The 2022 prop bets for Tom Brady suggest that the greatest quarterback of all time is set to have another Pro-Bowl-caliber season. Only one NFL player has higher totals than Brady for projected passing yards and passing touchdowns.

Brady’s over/under for passing yards in the 2022 season is 4,650.5 yards at DraftKings Sportsbook. Brady’s TD prop bet puts his season total at 35.5 scores. Despite briefly retiring in the offseason, Brady is arguably still the best player at the sport’s most important position. 

If Brady can replicate his 2021 campaign with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, he’ll have no trouble going over both totals. On his way to finishing second in the 2021 NFL MVP race, Brady led all passers with 5,316 yards and 43 touchdowns. It was the fourth time in his career that Brady averaged more than 300 passing yards per game in a season.

In order to put up those numbers, Brady ranked first in the league with a career-high 719 pass attempts. Brady had never thrown more than 637 times in any of his previous 21 seasons. In his first season with Tampa Bay, Brady threw for 4,633 yards and 40 touchdowns in 16 games. 

During his last four years with the New England Patriots, Brady never threw for more than 32 touchdowns in a season. He set a career-high with 50 touchdown passes in New England’s perfect 2007 regular season.

Let’s take a look at the odds for Brady’s passing totals in the 2022 NFL season and the best bet for each prop.

Tom Brady Prop Bets for 2022

All odds given are from DraftKings Sportsbook.

How Many Passing Yards Will Tom Brady Have In 2022? 

Over 4,650.5 Yards (+100)

Brady’s 2022 projected yards total is well short of what he posted in 2021. The five-time Super Bowl MVP was the NFL passing leader by more than 300 yards, putting up stats that he’s unlikely to match again. Brady can still come within 665 yards of that number and go over this year’s total.

Betting the over for Brady’s passing yards prop is essentially predicting that he’ll be a top-five passer in the NFL. Five quarterbacks finished with more than 4,605.5 yards last season. In each season from 2018 to 2020, at least five quarterbacks threw for 4,377 yards in 16-game seasons, a 4,651-yard pace in a 17-game season.

Even at 45 years old, Brady should be as durable as any quarterback. Brady hasn’t missed a single game due to injury in the last 13 seasons. He plays behind a top offensive line and makes sure to take as few unnecessary hits as possible. Maybe he’ll decline one day, but betting on Brady to continue being great has been a much safer option than trying to get ahead of his downfall.

How Many Touchdown Passes Will Tom Brady Throw In 2022?

Over 35.5 TDs (-110)

Passing touchdowns are more unpredictable than passing yards, but Brady is likely to throw for at least 36 touchdowns if he hits the 4,651-yard mark. Four of the five quarterbacks who reached that total in 2021 had more than 36 passing touchdowns. Three of the five signal callers who threw for more than 4,500 yards in 2020 had at least 37 touchdowns.

Rob Gronkowski, one of Brady’s top red-zone targets, is no longer with the team. Chris Godwin is recovering from a torn ACL one season after he ranked fourth in the league with 25 targets inside the 20-yard line. Most importantly, Mike Evans is back for another year. Evans led the Bucs with 14 touchdowns in 2022. In 32 games, Brady has connected with Evans for 26 touchdowns, and 17 of Evans’ 26 targets inside the 10-yard line have been turned into scores. 

Tampa Bay’s schedule could allow for Brady to have another 40-touchdown season. Brady had 13 combined passing touchdowns against the Atlanta Falcons and Carolina Panthers last season, and neither team is expected to be much better in 2022. The Bucs will probably ask a lot of Brady in games against the Dallas Cowboys, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams and Green Bay Packers. Tampa Bay has scored the most points in the NFL since signing Brady, so they should keep their pass-heavy offensive formula.

How To Bet Tom Brady Props

Player prop bets aren’t only available for individual games. Sportsbooks allow bettors to wager on player totals for the entire season.

Once you’ve set up an account with a sportsbook that operates in your state and you’ve deposited money, you’re ready to bet on player futures. In the player props section, quarterbacks are given a passing yards total, along with odds for both the over and the under.

Tom Brady’s regular-season passing yards total, for example, is 4,650.5 yards. The under has -120 odds, while the over has +100 odds. When the odds have a minus sign, the number represents how much you would have to risk in order to make $100 for a winning bet. If there’s a plus sign next to the odds, the number represents how much you would profit for a winning $100 bet.

Let’s say you bet $100 on Brady to throw over 4,650.5 yards. A winning bet would result in a profit of $100. In total, $200 should be added to your account, including a $100 profit and the $100 you originally wagered. A winning $100 bet on Brady’s under for passing yards would come with a $83.33 profit

Check out the FTN Bets Parlay Calculator to see how much you’d win based on the odds and amount wagered.