Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
We get a very important NFC West matchup for Thursday Night Football this week, and this game should be a good one. The spread is under four points, and both the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks need the win here. The 49ers are dragging a very injured offense up the coast into Seattle as the Seahawks are reeling after losing to the Carolina Panthers. This is not the defense I’d want to see as a Seahawks player, but let’s break it down and talk about who to target for our DFS lineups.
Be sure to check out David Jones’ “General Rules” article for Showdown Strategy and his piece for each game, along with the DFS showdown strategy articles for each slate. Additionally, the FTN Livestream every game night will provide the latest insight for each slate.
NFL DFS Thursday Night Breakdown: San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks
Patriots -1.5, O/U 43.5 (Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook)
San Francisco 49ers Plays for Week 15 DFS – TNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – QB Jimmy Garoppolo, WR Deebo Samuel (O), Brock Purdy (Q)
Quarterback
Brock Purdy is enjoying his time as the starting quarterback for San Francisco, with three combined touchdowns against the Bucs Sunday en route to over 21.0 DK points. He was only required to throw the ball 21 times but had a 134.0 passer rating, and now he gets a better matchup on the short week. Seattle is only 18th in DVOA against the pass and 15th in points per game allowed. It hasn’t resulted in a ton of sacks, but the Seahawks have managed to post a top-10 pressure rate this year, and Purdy has not done well under pressure. He hasn’t even thrown 20 passes when pressured, so we have to keep the sample in mind, but the passer rating drops to 58.3 — though most of the struggles came before his start Sunday; Purdy had a perfect 158.3 passer rating when pressured against the Bucs. San Francisco has been excellent in allowing a pressure rate under 25% so far this year, so that shouldn’t be too bad of an aspect for Purdy. His points per dropback would be in the top 10 with more repetitions, and the play-action game looks great for him in this spot. Seattle has allowed the 11th-highest passer rating (107.5) and the highest completion rate in football (74.0%) against play action, while Purdy has a passer rating of over 110.0 when using play action. This could bite me in his first road start, but I’m buying into Purdy in this offense and want to play him in most of my lineups on this slate.
Running Back
It’s difficult to not want to lock Christian McCaffrey in every lineup and figure out everything else. He turned 16 touches in 32.3 DK points last game and had his best game rushing since he’s been in San Francisco. That’s something we had talked about unleashing an ever higher ceiling for him, and he only played 69.8% of the snaps due to blowout. Jordan Mason handled 11 carries, but if the game stays close, he’s likely to fall into the four- to six-carry range more than anything. It’s possible that the split is a bit more even on a short week but I’m not exactly buying that. The 49ers were willing to risk CMC up 35 points Sunday. and they need to keep winning. With a third-string quarterback (even one who has played well), most teams are going to lean on their All-Pro back and Seattle is 26th in DVOA against the run, 31st in points allowed per game, 28th in yards per attempt allowed, and 28th in receiving yards allowed per game. CMC has the highest ceiling on this slate in addition to being seventh in yards per touch, 12th in yards created per touch, sixth in breakaway runs, third in points per game, second in receptions, and second in receiving yards. I will have very few lineups without him on this slate.
Wide Receiver
It’s unfortunate for the 49ers that Deebo Samuel is injured, but that’s going to allow us to use players in the offense with a bit more confidence than normal. Brandon Aiyuk, Jauan Jennings and even Ray-Ray McCloud should be more involved in the offense. Since Week 10 (that was the first game after a bye week when CMC was fully up to speed), Samuel has the team lead in target share at 23.7% with a 16.0% air yards share, so there is a distinct role to fill. I don’t expect anyone to get the extra carries that Samuel got through the season but there is still plenty to go around. Aiyuk already had the lead in air yards share at 34.4% and was tied with Samuel in red zone targets with four so his ceiling definitely creeps up a bit. The receiver move across the alignment but Aiyuk’s highest rate is 38% against Mike Jackson, who has allowed a 64% catch rate and 0.21 points per route.
Jennings has played 34.1% of the snaps and McCloud was at 16.5%, so the natural assumption will be Jennings jumps into the largest chunk of snaps in the absence of Samuel. Jennings is also playing 62% of his snaps from the slot, which is something I don’t think the 49ers want to change on a short week and without Samuel. That’s a boost for Jennings since Coby Bryant is the slot corner, and he’s been the worst option in the secondary with a 75% catch rate and 0.28 points per route. That also means McCloud could see a large amount of Tariq Woolen, and that is not a matchup I’d want to chase. Woolen has been outstanding as a rookie with a 56% catch rate and 0.19 points per route while McCloud is typically a special teams player. Danny Gray is likely to serve as the No. 4 receiver, but the rookie has just one reception on seven targets across nine games. He’s nothing more than a dart throw in large-field MME, while Aiyuk and Jennings would get the bulk of my attention in the receiving corps.
Tight End
I can see George Kittle disappointing us yet again here, even though the targets should be more condensed. It’s so weird that he’s only had a 12.8% target share over the past five games and the aDOT of 5.8 yards is not very high at all. The good news is that the lone big game for Kittle came against the Cardinals, who are dead last in points allowed per game. Well, the team sitting at 31st in points allowed is none other than Seattle. Kittle is outside the top five in points per game, which is weird considering he’s been mostly healthy this season and has played in every game since Week 3. He’s just 14th in receptions, 15th in yards run per route and 12th in target share so the numbers just aren’t Kittle-like as we’ve come to know him. Given the circumstances and matchup, I’m going to hold my breath and play Kittle but he’s been a conundrum this season.
Defense Special Teams
The San Francisco unit is a little more expensive than normal but not outrageously so. This is one of the best options in football since they are second in total DVOA, first in points allowed per game (by 1.8 points), and are tied for fourth in takeaways. They are also in the top 10 for sacks this year while the Seahawks are in the bottom 10 for sacks allowed and have turned it over 15 times. I’ll never say to not play the 49ers, even on the road.
Kicker
Robbie Gould isn’t going to hit a lot of long field goals — just two have hit from 50 yards or more — but he also hasn’t had a ton of chances. Gould is 19th as far as attempts this year, but he’s hit 34-of-35 extra points. The 49ers are still moving the ball and Seattle is 28th in yards allowed per game and 25th in red zone conversion rate allowed. We can add Gould to any lineup with confidence.
Seattle Seahawks Plays for Week 15 TNF DFS – TNF Showdown and Primetime Slates
Notable Injuries – RB DeeJay Dallas, DT Al Woods, S Ryan Neal (Q)
Quarterback
It wasn’t his best game ever, but Geno Smith did manage to score over 22.5 DK points on 36 attempts last week, and the Seahawks may not be able to deviate from that approach this week. Not only could they still be missing running backs, but they’re also the underdog in this game and could be trailing for a significant portion of it. The problem here is that the 49ers’ defense is one of the top three defenses in the league and they present a major issue for anyone they face. This defense already held Smith to his worst game of the season and it’s not particularly close. Granted, the Seahawks were on the road in some poor weather conditions but San Francisco is fifth in DVOA against the pass, fifth in points allowed per game to the position, and is one of three teams with more interceptions than touchdown passes allowed.
I don’t want to completely dismiss a player that is ninth in points per dropback, seventh in points per game, fourth in yards per attempt, sixth in yards and fourth in touchdown passes but the salary is likely to force some choices. I would rather play CMC and Purdy even if that means not playing a ton of Smith. He is over a 124.5 passer rating in play-action and over 155.5 in deep pass attempts but the 49ers are in the top 10 for passer rating allowed when defending play-action and the top 12 in yards allowed on deep passes. Smith is certainly playable but I will probably wind up lower than the field and hope the 49er defense show up like they have all year.
Running Back
So much for the Tony Jones start Sunday. Adam Schefter got that portion of this backfield way wrong since Jones only played 7.1% of the snaps while 90.7% of them went to Travis Homer, who handled nine of 10 running back attempts and took up three targets. The fantasy score was hideous and it doesn’t look as though he’s going to have another start. Kenneth Walker practiced in full Tuesday, so he’s going to be on the road back, but he may wind up wishing he sat out one more game. San Francisco is second in DVOA against the run, first in points per game allowed, third in stuff rate, first in yards per attempt and first in gash rate allowed. There are just not many cracks in the armor against this defense because the worst stat we can find is they are 12th in receiving yards allowed. Even though Walker will make it back, I’d be nervous playing him against an elite defense after an injury.
Wide Receiver
The receiving room took a bit of a turn this past week when Marquise Goodwin led the receivers in scoring and logged 75.9% of the snaps. The scoreboard likely had something to do with it since they were behind for basically the whole game. The snap rate for Goodwin was far above his seasonal rate of 50% so that could be something that happens again this week. The “weakest” part of the 49er defense is defending the pass so the Seahawks could just put the game into the hands of Smith and these receivers, Goodwin included. He does get the slot matchup 60% of the time and Jimmie Ward has guarded that position 99% of the time with an 82% catch rate allowed and 0.36 points per route. I feel like the big game Sunday inflated the salary for Goodwin a little too much but wouldn’t take him out of the pool.
Let’s also not bury the lede, which is Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf are the lead receivers here. In the first matchup, Lockett had the big day with over 22 DK points while Metcalf was held to just 7.5 but these two receivers have been nearly identical through the season for overall fantasy production. Lockett is at 71/896/8 and Metcalf is at 72/869/6 even though Lockett has 11 fewer targets. It’s highly debatable if it comes to fruition against the San Francisco defense but Metcalf’s 22 red zone targets and 19 end zone targets certainly suggest that his six touchdowns have been bad luck. He should be scoring more with this amount of work inside the 20-yard line and if that positive regression hits, he could have a massive game.
After all, Metcalf is what you would get if you entered a lab and tried to make the prototype receiver. Deommodore Lenoir isn’t a terrible corner with 0.21 points per route but he’s giving up about five inches and 30 pounds in this matchup. Metcalf is up to 16th in points per game, 10th in receptions, and 14th in yards, and those red zone targets lead the position. It feels like it’s a sleeping giant just waiting to score three times in a game. As for Lockett, he’s going to face some of Charvarius Ward and his 60% catch rate with 0.19 points per route when he’s on the boundary. Lockett kicks into the slot for over 40% of his snaps and he’ll see Jimmie Ward there while Lockett is 12th in points per game, 10th in yards, 11th in receptions, and 24th in yards run per route. The salaries are about equal so I plan to be heavier on the lower-rostered option between Metcalf and Lockett.
Tight End
We’re still rolling with Noah Fant if playing a tight end from this offense, since he has an 11.3% target share compared to 8.6% for Will Dissly. They are tied in red zone targets with six each, and Fant is only six points ahead for scoring on the year but he’s been playing better lately (until the goose egg last game). Playing better is a relative term since he’s only the TE25 in points per game, 17th in yards, 16th in receptions and 17th in yards run per route. Just like they are pretty much everywhere else, the 49er defense is elite against this position since they are sixth in points per game allowed and one of nine teams that hold the position under 10 points per game. I don’t have a lot of love for Fant at the salary for this slate, nor do I want to tangle with Dissly that much. I do understand him as the last man into the lineup style player though.
Defense/Special Teams
I have a feeling we’re going to see the Seahawks come in pretty low-rostered here, and I fully understand why. Purdy is the darling of the NFL right now and the San Francisco offense is a good one, to be sure. However, playing in Seattle is a challenge and the Seahawks are in a must-win spot. They are suddenly looking very iffy for making the playoffs and even though they are 21st in total DVOA and 30th in points allowed per game, they are a ball-hawking unit as they are tied for the fourth-most takeaways in football. Purdy is making his first road start and is down his top receiver, not the best combo. It’s still an extremely talented offense but Seattle should be able to keep it close and one or two turnovers could shift this game.
Kicker
Jason Myers hasn’t had the most opportunity this season either, just 14th in attempts, but he has hit five attempts of 50-plus yards, so he has a bit more leg to him. He likely needs that since the 49ers’ defense is first in yards per game allowed and one of two teams that have allowed fewer than 300 yards per game. They also rank 11th in red zone conversion rate allowed and even if Seattle can move the ball (that’s questionable), it’s probable that they can have issues with cashing those drives in. The Seahawks aren’t enough of an underdog to worry about that aspect of the game.
