Tipico Tips: Betting 2021 NFL team futures

The MLB All-Star Game is over, and the NBA Finals are down to the last 2-3 games. The weather is hot, and the sun is shining bright. All of this together means that football season is fast approaching.

Tipico Sportsbook has futures available on many different things, like the number of games a team will win, who will win each division, and ultimately who will be the Super Bowl champion. In a perfect world, the odds on these various events happening will follow a nice, neat pattern that all makes sense based off the other numbers. We do not live in a world that is nice and neat, though.

Sportsbooks may have everything calibrated perfectly when they originally release their numbers, but as things begin to move we start to see inefficiencies in those markets. Finding these inefficiencies and being able to capitalize on them is how we find value in betting markets. Here are some things to think about when looking for where the value might be.

How to find the best bets

All bets are not created equal. This holds true even for some of the ones that have the exact same payouts. The Buffalo Bills had an unbelievable 2020 season. They finished the regular season 13-3 before knocking off the Colts in the Wild Card game and the Ravens in the Divisional Round before losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. They finished 2020 three wins clear of the second-best team (the Dolphins) in their division and six clear of the third-place New England Patriots. The No. 4 in the division was the lowly New York Jets, who had a major roster overhaul this offseason and got a new coaching staff as well. Needless to say, the Bills are again favored to win the division. Their win total is the highest of the four teams at 10.5, and they are a -150 favorite to top that 10.5 number this year, the highest projected number and lowest payout of any team in their division. They are also a -150 favorite to win their division. With the payouts being equal, which would be the better bet to play?

In 2020, only one divisional winner won fewer than 12 games — the Washington Football Team, in what was one of the worst overall divisions in football. The NFC East did not have a single team at or over .500 last season, meaning Washington made the playoffs despite a 7-9 record. Last year, we had four teams reach 11 wins in a 16-game schedule and not win the division — the Colts, Browns, Ravens and eventual Super Bowl champion Buccaneers. Remember that this year we have an extra game as well, so that could lead to even more teams winning 11 games or possibly more and not being crowned a divisional champ. I mention this because 11 wins in a 16-game season was only enough to win one division last year. That will be even harder to do that this year with an extra game. The payouts for a team like Buffalo are the same to win the division as they are to win over 10.5 games. That means if one of those two things was easier to accomplish than the other, that would be the better of the two bets to make. Since seven of the eight divisional winners needed more than 11 wins to take the division last season, then it stands to reason that it is slightly harder to win a division than it is to get to 12 wins. Remember, we have eight divisional winners per year. We had 11 teams win over 10.5 games. With the additional game, that could even jump up to 12 or 13 for 2021. If more teams have a shot to win at least 10.5 games than win a division, we can look at the win total as having more value than the divisional winner bet because of the higher likelihood of that to occur.

Who will win the AFC North in 2021?

Two years ago, the Browns were a heavy favorite to win the AFC North and also a small number to win the Super Bowl. The Ravens came out and crushed the division that year. Last year, the Ravens were the chalk, but they needed a five-game, late-season winning streak to even get within one game of the eventual division champion Pittsburgh Steelers. The Ravens and Browns both finished with 11 wins, one behind Pittsburgh’s 12. This year, the Ravens and Browns both project for 10.5 wins or better. The Ravens are being given an implied chance of 60% to go over that number, while the Browns are even money to do it on Tipico Sportsbook. Even the Steelers still have a legit shot as they are projected just two games behind at 8.5 wins and standard -110 juice.

Unlike the Buffalo example above, this division is a lot more unpredictable. You have two teams with the same number of projected wins, although the Ravens are slightly more likely to get there according to the implied odds. At -150, the Ravens have a 60% chance to get over 10.5 wins as opposed to the Browns who have a 50% chance at even money. When you look at the divisional payouts though, the Ravens are +110 and the Browns are +140. Unlike the Buffalo example where it made more sense to take the Bills win total at a lower number and the same payout, in the AFC North at these prices it makes more sense to take the Ravens to win the division. The difference between the two examples here is the payouts offered. If the Ravens were also -150 to win the division like they are to win over 10.5 games, then the decision would be the same as it was for Buffalo. In this case though, the payouts are 60 basis points away from each other. I think the Ravens are a fair value to win the division at +110, which would also mean the Browns at +140 are slightly overvalued. In this case it makes more sense to take the higher payout on the divisional number vs. the payout on the win total, even though the win total is more likely to cash.

You can look through every division without knowing a thing about football or projections for the 2021 season and just bet on the market that offers the best value for the team you want to put some money behind. Remember, Tipico offers multiple ways to get money down on any team you want to bet on, so look at all the prices in every market they offer (win totals, chance to make the playoffs, chance to win the division) before deciding which one offers the best value.

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