NBA Postseason Best Bets (5/17)
Alex Christenson
Week 4 of the NFL season is set to kick off Thursday with the Jacksonville Jaguars visiting the Cincinnati Bengals. It’s been a rough start to the year for the rookie overall No. 1 pick Trevor Lawrence. His seven interceptions currently lead the league, although he has had some promising moments too.
Last year’s top drafted QB, Joe Burrow, is picking up where he left off before his injury in 2020. The addition of his buddy Ja’Marr Chase has been a huge boost to a very talented skill group on the offensive side of the ball. Chase seems to find the end zone every game and has more TDs through his first three NFL games than some guy named Randy Moss, who used to hold that record.
Let’s take a look at some of the numbers on this game and see where the betting value is.
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Cincinnati Bengals
You can still find the Bengals on DraftKings Sportsbook at a flat -7, but they did juice it up to -115. Plenty of sites have this game at +7.5 (-110) on the Jaguars side if you want to get down on it there. I do think Cincy wins, but my number on this game is only -5.5, so I’m not willing to lay the -7 and certainly not the -7.5. I do however think this is an excellent teaser piece to start the week. You can tease the home team here down from -7.5 to -1.5, getting us through the -7 and the super key number of -3. I’m avoiding a spread bet here but love this as part of my teasers for the weekend with teams like the Titans and Saints as the other piece of the puzzle. Jacksonville is 0-3 ATS this season while the Bengals have covered in two of their three games. Maybe that trend continues, but I’m not willing to bet on it here at that number.
As for the total, both teams have gone over once and under twice in the first three games. The 46 total here is not a massive number and has been inching down throughout the week. I do not expect it to turn, so you can wait until closer to game time if you want to bet an over as you may see a 45 handle soon. If you want to go under, DraftKings is the site with the highest current number at 46.5 and I would take that now. My lean is to the under here, so that number is a good one as everywhere else it is 46 and some are even juiced to that side.
Thursday Night Football prop bets
Ja’Marr Chase anytime TD
The rookie had a rough preseason, but as the lights have come on for the real show he has been unbelievable. Ja’Marr Chase has four touchdowns in his first three NFL games, breaking a record that was held by Randy Moss. That is some sick company to be in this early in your NFL career. Chase is not seeing massive volume, but the guy has made one play downfield for at 34 yards in every one of his first three games. Cincy has weapons all over the field and a QB that can make all the throws. This offense could use some upgrades on the line, but the skill position players are all young and talented.
Joe Burrow over 1.5 passing TDs
Joe Burrow needed only 18 pass attempts in the last game to reach three passing touchdowns. He had two in each of the first two games to give him seven on the season. Burrow is a top-tier QB with an amazing set of weapons. Even if Tee Higgins sits again, he has a top-tier RB and two very talented WRs to play catch with. This number is -170 on most other sites for over 1.5 touchdowns. Not only do I think this is likely to happen, but when you get a 20-basis-point discount on the rest of the market, it’s a great value as well.
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Marvin Jones over 4.5 receptions
Marvin Jones has become the de facto No. 1 WR in Jacksonville. His 28 targets through three games lead the team, and he has seen at least 8 in each game. He has cleared this 4.5-catch number in every game this season as well. The Jaguars are likely to be trailing here, which means they are likely to be a pass-heavy offense, especially late in this game. Jones has been productive and has a good relationship with his rookie QB. The game flow sets up for him to continue to outperform his expectations moving forward.
