Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Los Angeles Rams and Dallas Cowboys game for Week 8.
Week 8 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Los Angeles Rams @ Dallas Cowboys
DAL -6.5, O/U 45.5
Pace: LAR: 27.9 sec/snap (25th), DAL: 27.1 sec/snap (15th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Darrell Henderson played 58% of the snaps and handled 60% of the Rams rush attempts in Week 7.
- The Rams rank 12th in the NFL in red zone rush rate at 54.5%.
- Puka Nacua has a 35% target share since Cooper Kupp’s season debut in Week 5.
- 69.2% of the touchdowns scored against the Rams this season have come via the run, the highest rate in football.
Quarterback
I completely missed on Matthew Stafford last week. Given the injuries to the Rams running backs, I thought Sean McVay would lean on Stafford and the passing game. Instead, Stafford attempted just 29 passes, giving him fewer than 30 in each of his last two games. He threw one touchdown pass, giving him one or fewer touchdowns in all but one game this season. His passing touchdown rate of 2.7% ranks 25th among qualified signal callers and now he faces a tough Dallas defense that is allowing the fifth-lowest completion percentage in the league (60%). The Rams rank 12th in the NFL in red zone rush rate at 54.5%, which is also hurting Stafford’s touchdown upside. He is a mid-range QB2 yet again.
Running Back
With Kyren Williams sidelined, there was a lot of discourse surrounding the Los Angeles backfield entering Week 7. Would it be Zach Evans, or would the Rams stick with veterans to get the job done? It was clearly the latter, as Darrell Henderson led the way, playing 58% of the snaps and handling 60% of the team’s rushing attempts. He had 19 touches for 66 yards and a score, while Royce Freeman was on the field for 42% of the snaps and ran for 66 yards on 12 carries. McVay spoke highly about the importance of pass protection, as well as how impressive Henderson and Freeman were in that department, which led to Evans not even taking the field. Henderson got the goal line touchdown and played both of the team’s snaps in the two-minute drill, though he and Freeman essentially split snaps on third down. Henderson is a viable flex play against the Cowboys, while Freeman is someone I would add in most formats.
Wide Receiver
Puka Nacua is coming off a spectacular game, catching 8-of-12 targets for 154 yards. While Cooper Kupp has been back in the lineup for a few weeks now, it hasn’t led to Nacua becoming an afterthought. In fact, since Week 5 (Kupp’s season debut), Nacua is posting a 35% target share, while Kupp is at 36% during that span. And during that stretch, Kupp and Nacua have combined to account for over 75% of the Rams receiving yards. Both Kupp and Nacua are obvious must-start wide receivers each and every week.
Tight End
Since Kupp returned to the lineup, Tyler Higbee is still running a route on 85% of dropbacks but is only sporting a 12% target share during that span. He has just nine total targets and 45 receiving yards in those three games. The Cowboys have been in the middle of the pack against opposing tight ends, but there is really no ceiling with Higbee right now.
Quarterback
When we last saw Dak Prescott in Week 6, he had his best fantasy outing of the year, passing for 272 yards and a touchdown against the Chargers, while adding 40 rushing yards and a rushing score. Four of his seven rushing attempts were designed, which is pretty encouraging, and now he faces a Rams defense that is coughing up the 26.3 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season, the fourth-most in the league. The Rams have done a good job limiting touchdown passes this season, allowing the second-lowest passing touchdown rate at 1.7%. And Dallas’ red zone offense is still trying to figure things out. But Prescott should be able to post a solid game at home this week, making him a high-end QB2.
Running Back
It hasn’t been the greatest stretch for Tony Pollard, who ranks second among all running backs in expected fantasy points (109.2), but has scored 17.6 fewer points than expected, the sixth-most among all running backs. The volume has been great, as Pollard is averaging a healthy 20.1 touches per game on the year. He’s played 70% of Dallas’ offensive snaps (seventh) and 94% of the team’s two-minute snaps (fifth). His 17 rush attempts from inside the 10-yard line are the third-most in the league and while the efficiency hasn’t been the same, it just feels like he is going to have a monster game before we know it. Could it be this week? It is entirely possible. 69.2% of the touchdowns scored against the Rams this season have come on the ground, the highest rate in the NFL. The Rams are also allowing the ninth-most yards before contact per rush attempt this year (1.54). I’d like to see more runs to the outside for Pollard, but better days are certainly ahead.
Wide Receiver
CeeDee Lamb has been a bit disappointing this season. His 22% target share puts him outside the top-30 wide receivers this season, down from his 28.7% target share from a season ago. After leading the league in targets and receptions in pre-snap motion a year ago, Lamb has been used far less often in that way under Mike McCarthy. His 30 snaps in pre-snap motion are tied for 27th among all wide receivers. Dallas hasn’t been scheming targets up for Lamb at nearly the same rate as they did with Kellen Moore calling the plays. The Rams have been a pleasant surprise against wide receivers this season, allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to the position. You are still starting Lamb, but he is quickly becoming more of a WR2 than a top-12 option.
Tight End
After seeing seven targets in three of his first four games, Jake Ferguson has seen just four total targets over his last two outings. The good news, at least, is that Ferguson has now set season-highs in route participation in both of those contests (73%, 84%), while his 85% snap share in Week 6 was also a season-high. Ferguson also continues to see high-value targets, as he ranks fourth in the league with six targets inside the 10-yard line. He has also accounted for almost 30% of Dallas’ targets from inside the red zone. This is a solid matchup for Ferguson, as the Rams are coughing up the sixth-most fantasy points (13.7) and fifth-most receiving yards (62.4) per game to opposing tight ends this season.
