Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Cincinnati Bengals and San Francisco 49ers game for Week 8.
Week 8 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Cincinnati Bengals @ San Francisco 49ers
SF -5.5, O/U 45
Pace: CIN: 27.7 sec/snap (22nd), SF: 29.6 sec/snap (30th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Christian McCaffrey played 100% of the snaps Monday night.
- He has seen a carry or a target on 38.3% of snaps this season.
- The Bengals are allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (14.3).
- George Kittle is averaging 7.5 targets per game without Deebo Samuel in the lineup in six games since 2021.
Quarterback
Joe Burrow looked a lot better in Weeks 5 and 6, and after having Week 7 off, hopefully he is as healthy as he has been all year long. During practice, the Bengals have actually been operating from under center, which hasn’t been the case at all this season. Burrow has been out of the shotgun formation 96% of the time this season so perhaps more under center is a sign that Burrow is healthier. We still haven’t seen a very aggressive passing attack from the Bengals, mainly due to Burrow’s lack of mobility with the calf, as well as the offensive line. Burrow ranks last in intended air yards per pass attempt (6.1), while his 3.6 air yards per completion also ranks worst in football. San Francisco just allowed Kirk Cousins to finish as the QB6 against them last week, but this is still a defense that is allowing the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers. Burrow is on the QB1/QB2 borderline.
Running Back
You are continuing to rely on volume if you are starting Joe Mixon, who has played 74% of the snaps and handled 83% of Cincinnati’s rushing attempts so far this season. Mixon is averaging about 19 touches per game, however, he ranks 38th among all running backs in yards per touch (4.2). It is difficult to expect much efficiency against a tough San Francisco run defense, though he should still see enough work to warrant mid-range RB2 status yet again.
Wide Receiver
You are obviously starting Ja’Marr Chase, who has a target share north of 30% and is being targeted on 29% of his routes. The Bengals have changed his role a bit this season, moving him into the slot a career-high 25% of the time. He has dominated from the slot against zone coverage, which is mainly what the 49ers run. Against zone coverage this season, Chase is sporting a whopping 36.3% target share, while averaging 1.91 fantasy points per target against the coverage. We just saw Jordan Addison torch this defense last week, as the 49ers are now coughing up the fifth-most receptions (15.4) and targets (22.9) per game to opposing wide receivers.
Tee Higgins was limited when we last saw him in Week 6, running a route on less than 60% of dropbacks. We have seen him be a bit of a decoy when he’s not 100% healthy but following the bye, he should be good to go. It has been a rough season for Higgins so far, but he still has plenty of upside to be started as a WR2.
Tight End
Irv Smith has a 5% target share on the season. You should not be starting him in any formats this week.
Quarterback
We don’t know who will be under center for San Francisco this week, as Brock Purdy is suddenly in the concussion protocol. He practiced Thursday, but he obviously has to clear the protocol in order to play. If he is out, the 49ers will turn to Sam Darnold, who should be good enough to support the players from this offense that we want to start for fantasy, but he himself won’t be on the fantasy radar. Purdy, meanwhile, has struggled over the last two weeks, finishing as the QB26 and QB16. This San Francisco offense doesn’t look the same without Trent Williams, who could be out again this week, and we know Deebo Samuel will be out. If Purdy starts, he’s a QB2 with less confidence than usual.
Running Back
Despite leaving Week 6 with the oblique injury, Christian McCaffrey ended up not only playing on Monday, but logging 100% of the snaps. He handled 75% of the team’s rush attempts and scored two touchdowns. It was great to see McCaffrey look healthy and now he gets a very inviting Cincinnati run defense. The Bengals are allowing a league-high 2.65 yards before contact per rush attempt this season, while 15.9% of the runs against this defense have gained 10-plus yards, the highest rate in the NFL. McCaffrey has seen a carry or a target on 38.3% of snaps this season, one of the highest rates in the league. We could see a vintage performance from CMC Sunday.
Wide Receiver
With Deebo Samuel almost certainly out, we should once again see a ton of targets head to the direction of Brandon Aiyuk, who had a strong first half last week, but did nothing in the second half. He still had a solid 22% target share, giving him a target share of 27% over the course of the season. This is a tough matchup, as the Bengals have made things difficult for opposing outside wide receivers this season. Cincinnati is allowing the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing pass-catchers on the left side of the field (7.3), which is where Aiyuk lines up about 50% of the time. The Bengals have used Cam Taylor-Britt in shadow coverage at times this season, though I trust Aiyuk’s ability to get open against anyone. He’s a mid-range WR2 for me.
Tight End
You are starting George Kittle, regardless of who is under center for San Francisco. He caught 5-of-7 targets for 78 yards last week, sporting a 26% target share, his second-highest rate in a game this season. With Trent Williams sidelined, I was worried that the 49ers would ask Kittle to block more, but he still ran a route on nearly 90% of dropbacks. Since 2021, Kittle is averaging 7.5 targets in six games without Deebo Samuel and now he faces a Bengals defense that is allowing the fourth-most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends this season (14.3).
