Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. Below, check out his breakdown of the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys game for Week 13.
Week 13 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Seattle Seahawks @ Dallas Cowboys
8:15 p.m. ET Thursday, Amazon (announcers: Al Michaels and Kirk Herbstreit)
DAL -9, O/U 46.5
Pace: SEA: 26.0 sec/snap (9th), DAL: 26.0 sec/snap (9th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Tony Pollard forced a total of eight missed tackles in Weeks 1-9.
- He has 15 forced missed tackles the last three weeks.
- Dak Prescott is averaging 311 passing yards, 3 TDs and 26 fantasy points per game at home this season.
- Zach Charbonnet played 87% of the snaps and handled 78% of the rush attempts in his start last Thursday.
Quarterback
Geno Smith played through an elbow issue last week and really struggled against a tough 49ers defense, completing 18-of-27 passes for just 180 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. Pressure has been a factor for most of the year, as Smith has been pressured on 39.6% of his dropbacks, the ninth-highest rate in football. And now he has to head to Dallas to face a Cowboys defense that is among the best in the league at generating pressure, while allowing just 4.5 yards per play when at home, the third fewest in the league. Already with a suddenly limited ceiling (two finishes better than QB16), Smith is an uninspiring QB2 this week, even with so many teams on bye.
Running Back
The Seahawks were without Kenneth Walker on Thanksgiving, as their star running back continues to deal with an oblique injury. He hasn’t practiced to open the week — I’d be pretty surprised if he plays Thursday. If that is the case, Zach Charbonnet would once again play a near every-down role for Seattle. With Walker sidelined last week, Charbonnet played 87% of the snaps and handled 78% of the rush attempts. He touched the ball 18 times and played every snap in the two-minute drill, giving him 100% of the snaps in that scenario for five straight games. That usage and playing time makes him gamescript-independent, which is great considering the Cowboys are relatively large home favorites here. Charbonnet is a volume-based RB2 against a Dallas defense that is surrendering the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing backfields on the year.
Wide Receiver
The bad news? Tyler Lockett caught just three passes for 30 yards last week. The good news? He ran a route on 97% of dropbacks, while logging 95% of the snaps, a huge uptick from his Week 11 usage (55% snaps, 71% routes). Still, the veteran wideout has now failed to reach 55 receiving yards in seven games this season, as he’s been much more of a WR3 this season. He has a tough matchup this week, facing a red-hot Dallas secondary that is deploying man coverage at the highest rate in the entire NFL (41%). Lockett, meanwhile, is averaging just 0.99 yards per route run against man coverage this year, which ranks third among Seattle’s wide receivers and 84th in the league. He should see primary coverage from Stephon Gilmore, who is allowing a 50% catch rate in coverage this season.
DK Metcalf, meanwhile, led the team in targets last week, but struggled against Charvarius Ward. He converted just three of those targets for 32 scoreless yards, though the volume remains very promising. Since Week 6, Metcalf is averaging nearly 10 targets per game, while sporting a target share of 27% during that span. Metcalf fairs better against man coverage than Lockett, averaging 1.95 yards per route run (37th), while his 35.1% target share against the defense ranks seventh in all of football. Also averaging more fantasy points per target against man than zone (1.87 to 1.51), Metcalf remains a boom/bust WR2 against the Cowboys.
Finally, Jaxon Smith-Njigba continues to showcase all of the potential in the world, but it hasn’t led to trustworthy fantasy football usage. He did run a route on 83% of dropbacks last week, even with Lockett returning to his usual role, but the inconsistent usage keeps him in the WR4 discussion at best.
Tight End
Still a committee at tight end in Seattle? Feel free to look elsewhere.
Quarterback
Dak Prescott continued his scorching stretch on Thanksgiving, passing for 331 yards and four touchdowns against Washington. Since Week 6, Prescott ranks second in passing yards (1,874), first in touchdown passes (18), second in completion percentage (70.5%) and second in fantasy points per dropback (0.70). And with Prescott playing at an MVP level, the Cowboys have been playing to that strength, ranking second in the NFL in early down pass rate since Week 6 (63%). Sure, he has gotten it done against some of the worst pass defenses in football, while Seattle’s pass defense has been above average. And while I absolutely wouldn’t expect him to post similar stat lines like we’ve suddenly grown accustomed to, Prescott still belongs in every fantasy lineup.
Running Back
Don’t look now, but Tony Pollard has found the end zone in consecutive games. After rushing for 61 yards and a touchdown on 12 carries against Carolina in Week 11, Pollard rushed for 79 yards and a score on 13 carries last Thursday against Washington. He still isn’t showcasing the consistent explosive run ability that we have seen over the past two years but as of late, Pollard does look more dynamic. After forcing a total of eight missed tackles from Weeks 1-9 combined, Pollard has now forced 15 missed tackles over just the past two weeks. He now faces a Seattle defense that just coughed up 114 rushing yards and a pair of touchdowns to Christian McCaffrey and over their last five contests, the Seahawks are surrendering over five yards per carry to opposing running backs.
Wide Receiver
The yardage has come down over the last two weeks, but CeeDee Lamb has made up for it by continuing to score touchdowns. He has now found the end zone in three straight games — since Week 6, has basically been unstoppable, averaging 8.5 receptions, 11.5 targets and 118 receiving yards per game. Lamb now leads all of football with 15 end zone targets, while sporting an overall target share of 27%. He’ll now face a Seattle defense that is coughing up the most receptions (6.9), second-most targets (9.6) and fourth-most fantasy points per game (15.2) to opposing pass-catchers from the slot, which is where Lamb lines up about 60% of the time.
Brandin Cooks, meanwhile, remains a boom/bust WR4. He has now found the end zone in three of his last five games, though he has certainly taken advantage of some great matchups during that span. Cooks only has a 13% target share on the season and now faces a Seattle secondary that has been much better at defending the boundaries over the course of the season.
Tight End
Early in last week’s game, Jake Ferguson caught a 35-yard pass down the seam, but he did nothing after. Like many tight ends, Ferguson is unlikely to have a strong floor if he doesn’t score a touchdown. Fortunately, he plays in one of the top offenses in the league and still leads all tight ends with 10 targets from inside the 10-yard line this season, accounting for 30.3% of Dallas’ total targets from that area of the field. The Seahawks have allowed just one tight end to score against them all year long. Ferguson is on the TE1/TE2 borderline this Thursday.
