Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the San Francisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks Thanksgiving game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: San Francisco 49ers @ Seattle Seahawks
SF -6.5, O/U 43
Pace: SF: 29.7 sec/snap (31st), SEA: 26.0 sec/snap (7th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Zach Charbonnet logged 85% of the snaps and handled 71% of Seattle’s rush attempts Sunday.
- Tyler Lockett played just 55% of the snaps against the Rams.
- Christian McCaffrey has either a carry or a target on 38.8% of his snaps this season.
Quarterback
Brock Purdy put together a flawless game Sunday, completing 21-of-25 passes for 333 yards and three touchdowns. With the 49ers offense at full strength over the past two weeks, Purdy has now finished as the QB6 and QB2 in fantasy during that span. On the season, Purdy is averaging an impressive 0.63 fantasy points per dropback, tied with Jalen Hurts for the most in football. Purdy has been stellar against zone coverage this season, completing 74% of his passes and 62% of his deep passes against the defense. Seattle, meanwhile, runs zone 65% of the time, the seventh-highest rate in football. Purdy is a low-end QB1 against his division rival Thursday.
Running Back
After failing to find the end zone in Week 10, Christian McCaffrey scored Sunday. He touched the ball 26 times for over 100 scrimmage yards and for the season, McCaffrey is now averaging 21.7 touches per game, while seeing either a carry or a target on 39% of his snaps, a top-three rate in the league. Seattle has been solid against the run this season, but they are coughing up the ninth-most receptions (5.2), seventh-most receptions (7.0) and seventh-most receiving yards (43.7) per game to opposing backfields. You are obviously starting McCaffrey in all formats, all the time.
Wide Receiver
Brandon Aiyuk torched Tampa Bay’s secondary to the tune of five catches, 156 yards and a touchdown Sunday. He’s now scored in consecutive games and is up to the WR15 on the season in total points and WR12 in points per game (16.7). Aiyuk leads the team with a 24% target share on the season, as he continues to operate as San Francisco’s number-one wide receiver. Deebo Samuel, meanwhile, is hovering around a 15% target share, as Aiyuk and George Kittle have handled more of a role in the passing game lately. Samuel is always exciting against zone-heavy defenses, as he’s sporting a 27% target share against zone coverage this season. Seattle is also top-10 in yards after the catch allowed this season, making this a potentially advantageous spot for Samuel. Aiyuk is a borderline WR1, while Samuel is a middling WR2.
Tight End
It has been nice to see George Kittle continue to produce, even with this San Francisco offense at full strength. Over the last three weeks, Kittle has hauled in 20-of-24 targets for 354 yards and two touchdowns, sporting a 30% target share during that span. It sure looks like Samuel is suddenly the third option in this passing game. Kittle has remained elite, averaging 2.35 yards per route run, the best mark among all tight ends. He is also averaging 6.4 yards after the catch per reception (third best) and is my TE4 for the week.
Quarterback
Geno Smith exited last week’s game with an elbow injury but returned late in the contest. Smith isn’t a lock to play Thursday night, though I’d guess he suits up. He’s taken a bit of a step back this season and now has to face a San Francisco defense that is coughing up the third-fewest fantasy points per game to opposing signal callers on the season (13.7). Averaging just 0.39 fantasy points per dropback on the season (23rd among quarterbacks), Smith is nothing more than a low-end QB2 against the 49ers.
Running Back
With Kenneth Walker leaving last week’s game early with an oblique injury, Zach Charbonnet took over Seattle’s backfield. The rookie logged 85% of the snaps and handled 71% of Seattle’s rush attempts on Sunday. He has also now played 100% of the team’s snaps in the two-minute drill each of the last four games. It seems unlikely that Walker plays on Thursday, paving the way for Charbonnet to dominate the workload against San Francisco. The matchup isn’t the greatest, but Charbonnet had 21 touches last week and has now caught 10 passes over his last two games. Charbonnet should see as much volume as almost any running back in the league this week, which makes him a viable RB2.
Wide Receiver
DK Metcalf caught 5-of-9 targets for 94 yards and a touchdown last week and now faces a San Francisco defense that gives up plenty of production to opposing wideouts. The 49ers are allowing the second-most receptions (15.5) and targets (22.8) per game to opposing wideouts, and now will be without starting safety Talanoa Hufanga for the remainder of the season. San Francisco also plays a lot of single-high, which makes them vulnerable to splash plays over the top. Tyler Lockett, meanwhile, continues to deal with a hamstring injury that kept him out of practice for much of last week. He ultimately suited up but was only on the field for 55% of the snaps. It is definitely something to keep an eye on, especially with Jaxon Smith-Njigba playing more and more as of late and making the most of his opportunities. I have Metcalf as a mid-range WR2, while Lockett is closer to a WR3 right now. He is, however, still fourth in the league in end zone targets with 11.
Tight End
No thank you.
