Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals
PIT -1, O/U 35
Pace: PIT: 27.4 sec/snap (18th), CIN: 28.1 sec/snap (27th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Jaylen Warren leads the NFL in avoided tackles per rush attempt (0.41).
- He is fifth in runs of 10-plus yards (18) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (9).
- He only ranks 41st in carries (80).
- 15.3% of the runs against the Bengals have gained 10-plus yards, the highest rate in football.
- 14% of Pittsburgh’s pass attempts have been to the middle of the field, the second-lowest rate in football.
Quarterback
It’ll be interesting to see what this Pittsburgh offense looks like without Matt Canada as the offensive coordinator. My guess? It’ll look better. I’m not sure it will suddenly make Kenny Pickett fantasy relevant, though. He has just one touchdown over his last five games, while averaging 0.32 fantasy points per dropback, which ranks 30th among quarterbacks. The Bengals have been a pretty generous defense this season and allow plenty of explosive plays. They actually are surrendering 6.1 yards per play, the second-most in the NFL. However, with no teams on bye in Week 12, it is unlikely that you will have to rely on Pickett in fantasy.
Running Back
This Thanksgiving, I’m thankful for Jaylen Warren. He continued his stellar season Sunday, rushing for 129 yards and a touchdown on just nine carries against an elite Cleveland defense. Warren has been the most efficient running back in football this season, leading the league in avoided tackles per attempt (0.41). Warren also ranks fifth in runs of 10-plus yards (18) and second in runs of 15-plus yards (9), despite ranking just 41st in the league in carries (80). Warren is still the RB2 on the Steelers in terms of usage, averaging 11.4 touches per game and logging 46% of the snaps, compared to 14.7 touches per game and 54% of the snaps for Najee Harris. Still, Warren has outscored Harris every week in PPR formats, and has now finished as a top-15 fantasy running back in each of his last three games. We’ll see if Warren will start to see more touches in this new offense (I doubt it) but this is a great spot for him to remain efficient on limited volume. The Bengals are an inviting run defense, as 15.3% of the runs against the Bengals this year have gained 10-plus yards, the highest rate in football. Cincinnati is also 2.50 yards before contact per rush, the worst mark in the league, while Pittsburgh’s run game has looked much better as of late, especially with rookie tackle Broderick Jones on the field. Warren and Harris are both low-end RB2/high-end flex options this week.
Wide Receiver
The Pittsburgh wide receivers could see the most noticeable impact from the new offense. We know Canada has done a terrible job of generating layups for this passing attack, especially in the middle of the field. So far this season, just 14% of Pittsburgh’s passes have gone to the middle of the field, tied for the second-lowest rate in the league. I expect that to change going forward, which is good for everyone, but especially George Pickens, who might finally be able to run more than vertical routes. I do believe that the Steelers, especially facing a backup quarterback again, will continue to build off their success on the ground. Over the last four weeks, the Steelers are sporting the league’s fifth-highest neutral script rush rate (49.1%), which has led to Diontae Johnson catching just three passes for 33 yards over the last two games. Since returning in Week 7, Johnson still leads the team with a 30% target share, and I am excited to see if he and Pickens see more targets in the middle of the field. Cincinnati has done a pretty good job against perimeter wide receivers this season but did just allow over 100 yards to Odell Beckham, and if they are without top defensive back Cam Taylor-Britt, they could be in trouble. Johnson is my WR29 this week, while Pickens remains a boom/bust WR3.
Tight End
Pat Freiermuth returned from a hamstring injury on Sunday, though he was definitely limited. Freiermuth played just 53.4% of the snaps, while running a route on just 39% of dropbacks. This is one of the best matchups in fantasy so if he can return to his usual role, Freiermuth could post top-10 production here. Cincinnati is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points (14.4), sixth-most receptions (5.8) and third-most receiving yards (63.5) per game to opposing tight ends this season.
Quarterback
With Joe Burrow now out for the rest of the season, the Bengals will turn to Jake Browning. I actually thought he looked okay in relief of Burrow last Thursday, though this entire offense is obviously going to take a pretty massive hit going forward. We’ll see what he can do for the pass-catchers in this Cincinnati offense, but Browning is not on the fantasy radar, especially against a tough Steelers pass rush.
Running Back
Joe Mixon has looked really good in three of his last four games and has now found the end zone in each of his last four games. However, the Bengals offense isn’t going to move the ball down the field as often, which obviously hurts Mixon. The volume should still be solid, which has been the case all year long. Mixon is averaging 18.4 touches per game on the season, logging 73% of the snaps and handling 80% of the team’s rushing attempts. Over the years, Mixon has benefited from seeing so many light boxes in Cincinnati’s spread offense led by Burrow. But teams could start stacking the box against the Bengals, which is worrisome for a running back who hasn’t even been that efficient against light boxes. Mixon has moved down to low-end RB2 range for me going forward.
Wide Receiver
Garbage time helped Ja’Marr Chase get there last week, as he ultimately finished the game with two catches for 12 yards and a touchdown. He should continue to dominate the targets the rest of the way, especially if Tee Higgins remains sidelined. However, the quality of targets won’t be the same without Burrow, especially deep down the field. Chase will face a man-heavy Pittsburgh defense that was struggling against opposing lead wideouts to start the year but has been much better since having Joey Porter play more in shadow coverage. Chase is now outside my top-12 fantasy wide receivers but still just inside my top-15 at the position.
Tight End
I understand Tanner Hudson has been involved quite a bit as of late, hauling in 14 passes over the last three weeks. However, you can find better options at the tight end position this week and going forward. The Steelers, meanwhile, have been a top-five defense against opposing tight ends this season.
