Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Read-Option is Adam Pfeifer’s weekly fantasy football game-by-game breakdown, covering everything a fantasy manager needs to know before setting or building lineups for the week. And this week it’s all free! Below, check out his breakdown of the Los Angeles Rams and Arizona Cardinals game for Week 12.
Week 12 Fantasy Football Breakdown: Los Angeles Rams @ Arizona Cardinals
ARI -1, O/U 44.5
Pace: LAR: 27.6 sec/snap (23rd), ARI: 27.4 sec/snap (18th)
FTN Data Breakdown
- Puka Nacua posted a 32% target share and 30% target per route run rate without Cooper Kupp in Weeks 1-4.
- Tutu Atwell had a 23% target share during that span.
- Arizona is allowing 91.6 yards per game to opposing lead wideouts, the fourth most in the league.
- They are also coughing up the highest completion rate (58.8%) and second-most yards (720) off deep passes.
- In Weeks 1-6, Kyren Williams posted an 84% snap share, 73% rush share and averaged 18.3 touches per game.
Quarterback
For whatever reason, Matthew Stafford just can’t seem to get that second touchdown on a weekly basis. He threw for 190 yards, one touchdown and one interception last week and has now failed to reach 250 passing yards in every game since Week 4. Stafford has also failed to score multiple touchdowns in eight of nine games, and although this is a favorable matchup, it is still tough to envision a huge ceiling for Stafford, especially if Cooper Kupp is sidelined. Arizona, however, is allowing the fourth-highest completion rate in the NFL (69.6%), as well as the sixth-highest yards per pass attempt (7.6) and sixth-highest passing touchdown rate (5.0%). Stafford is a mid-range QB2 that has the matchup you want to chase if you need a streaming option for Week 12.
Running Back
Kyren Williams will make his return this week, and if the release of Darrell Henderson is any indication, Williams should be full-go, which is what Sean McVay expects. (They did add Henderson back to the practice squad and he could be elevated Sunday, but it seems unlikely they’d have even taken that chance if they weren’t secure about Williams’ status.) Assuming that is the case, I don’t know how you don’t view him as a must-start running back. Before landing on injured reserve in Week 7, Williams had an outstanding role. In Weeks 1-6, he posted an 84% snap share and 73% rush share and averaged 18.3 touches per game. During that span, Williams was the RB4 in all of fantasy, averaging just over a fantasy point per snap. The Rams rank 10th in rush rate inside the red zone this season (51.8%) and Williams should get most of the work against an Arizona defense that is allowing the fourth-most yards before contact per rush attempt this year (1.81). Meanwhile, only the Panthers and Broncos are allowing more fantasy points per game to opposing backfields.
Wide Receiver
Cooper Kupp left last week’s game with an ankle sprain, and although he’s been limited in practice, he could very well miss this game. If Kupp is active, you are starting him, despite the slump he currently finds himself in. The Cardinals are allowing 91.6 yards per game to opposing lead wideouts, the fourth-most in the league. That is great for Kupp but would also be great for Puka Nacua if Kupp does not play. He was the clear WR1 for the Rams to start the season without Kupp. In Weeks 1-4, Nacua posted a 32% target share and 30% target per route run rate. He also averaged 13 targets per game during that stretch, while ranking top-three in the league in first-read targets. Regardless, this is a really good spot for Nacua, as Arizona is deploying zone coverage 63% of the time, a top-10 rate. Nacua, meanwhile, has a 31.3% target share against zone defense this year, while ranking sixth in the league in yards per route run against the defense (2.88). Continue to keep an eye on Kupp’s status heading into the weekend. If he plays for the Rams, he plays for your fantasy team. If not, Puka becomes a top-10 wideout.
Meanwhile, Tutu Atwell would become a high-upside WR3 if the Rams are without Kupp. During that four-week span without Kupp to open the year, Atwell posted a healthy 23% target share, while accounting for 28% of the team’s air yards. He also averaged 8.7 targets and 14.4 PPR points per game. This is a really good matchup for Atwell, who leads the Rams with 12 deep targets on the year. Arizona, meanwhile, is coughing up the highest completion rate (58.8%) and second-most yards (720) off deep passes this season. If Kupp is out, Atwell will see primary coverage from Marco Wilson, who is allowing 0.42 fantasy points per coverage route this year.
Tight End
Maybe Tyler Higbee can post low-end TE1 production if Kupp is sidelined. And in the four games without Kupp to start the year, he posted a 15% target share and averaged about nine PPR points per contest. If Kupp doesn’t play, Higbee is a borderline TE1 in fantasy.
Quarterback
In two games this season, Kyler Murray has scored 18.2 and 22.6 fantasy points. He has seven designed rush attempts during that span, rushing for 33 and 51 yards to go along with two touchdowns. Murray has been so close to connecting on a few more deep balls (specifically to Marquise Brown) but so far, has only completed 3-of-8 passes 20-plus yards down the field. Murray should start to hit on some of those passes and gets to face a Rams defense that is coughing up about 21 rushing yards per game to opposing signal callers this season (10th-most). Murray is a low-end QB1 going forward with upside for more.
Running Back
James Conner has also been back in the lineup for two weeks now. During that stretch, Conner has logged 66% of the snaps, handled 68% of the Cardinals’ rushing attempts and is averaging 16 touches per game. The usage in the passing game hasn’t quite been there yet, as Conner has only been on the field for 15% of Arizona’s long down and distance snaps over the last two weeks, as well as just half of their snaps in the two-minute drill. I’d love to see Conner get back to playing more on passing downs but when he’s on the field, he is getting the football, which should give him a floor of 15-17 touches each week. I have him as my RB21 ahead of this NFC West matchup.
Wide Receiver
Despite having Kyler Murray back under center, Marquise Brown hasn’t gotten it done over the last two weeks, catching just 3-of-9 targets for 46 scoreless yards. He has caught just one of four deep targets during that span and now Hollywood is suddenly dealing with a heel injury that kept him out of practice Thursday. With Michael Wilson (shoulder) once again out, both Rondale Moore and Greg Dortch would become very solid WR3 plays if Brown is unable to suit up this weekend. Moore caught a deep touchdown last week, while Dortch hauled in 6-of-8 targets for 76 yards. Almost any time Dortch gets the opportunity to play, he is a fantasy-relevant player.
Tight End
You are absolutely starting Trey McBride, who has run a route on 81% of his dropbacks since Week 8, while sporting an insane 31% target share during that span. McBride played every single offensive snap last week and still ranks second among all tight ends in targets per route run (26%) and third in yards per route run (2.17) on the season. He now faces a Rams defense that is surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points (13.2) and receiving yards (56.8) per game to opposing tight ends.
