The Perception/Production Gap in Fantasy Football 2024: QB/RB

As a community, fantasy football drafters are very good at valuing Derrick Henry. His ADP the last four years was, in order, RB6, RB4, RB4 and RB7, and he’s finished as the RB3, RB22 (injury year), RB4 and RB8. If we could get draft every player as well as we have drafted Henry, we could more or less announce the winner of each league at the end of draft night.

Obviously, we can’t do that, and we aren’t as good at drafting everyone as we’ve proven to be with King Henry. That’s fine — it’s part of the fun of this game, in fact. The thing is, if we just get a pick wrong generally, it doesn’t tell us much. We were just wrong. But if there is a player or type of player we get wrong consistently, that tells us something. Is there someone the drafting community always overrated? Underrates? And what does it mean if there is?

That’s the idea here. The perception/production gap. Which players do we get wrong most often, and can we learn anything from that? That’s what I’m exploring today and Thursday (quarterbacks and running backs today; wide receivers and tight ends Thursday). All ADP and fantasy finish information is PPR and per FantasyPros.

Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions

After being wrong on Goff his first few full years as a starter, he kind of bottomed out in Los Angeles and was shipped to Detroit as more-or-less a throw-in in the Matthew Stafford trade. Accordingly, we bailed on him in fantasy, not even taking him as a top-32 quarterback his first year as a Lion. We were wrong, but only by a little (he finished as QB24 in 2021), but our minds decided there wasn’t much to get excited about with Goff. He was still only QB27 by ADP in 2022 and gave us a QB10 season. We bumped him to QB14 in 2023 for his QB7 finish. At this point, Goff is still not yet 30 (29 until October), he has established weapons in Amon-Ra St. Brown, Sam LaPorta, Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, he has one of the most exciting offensive coordinators in the league in Ben Johnson, and we’ve still only bumped him to QB12? I’m open to the idea that Goff has a cap on his ceiling that other quarterbacks don’t, but if I had to commit to one quarterback to finish exactly between QB7 and QB10 in 2024, it might be him.

Brian Robinson, RB, Washington Commanders

2022: “Yeah, Brian Robinson is interesting, but Antonio Gibson is there and will catch passes, so he can’t be that valuable, right? Oh, he beat our expectations by a bit.”

2023: “Yeah, Brian Robinson is interesting, but Antonio Gibson is there and will catch passes, so he can’t be that valuable, right? Oh, he beat our expectations by a bit more.”

2024: “Yeah, Brian Robinson is interesting, but Austin Ekeler is there and will catch passes, so he can’t be that valuable, right? We’ll draft him at RB35 for this year.”

Devin Singletary, RB, New York Giants

If you want a type that we get wrong a lot as a drafting community, it’s the guys who can regularly finish as low-end starts or high-end flexes in fantasy but have precious little chance of being a top-10 guy. It makes sense to shoot for the ceiling of a guy who can be RB5 but also might be RB50 at the expense of a guy who won’t kill you but won’t be the reason you win the title. Devin Singletary is a great example of that, beating his ADP in four of his five seasons (and coming in just short in the fifth) and not missing a game to injury since his rookie year. Even in 2023, when Singletary averaged under 25 snaps a game in the first eight weeks, he still took over and finished on the fringe of the flex ranks. Now, he’s set up to be the No. 1 with the Giants, and his ADP is … lower than last year’s finish? Singletary won’t be a top-15 back in 2024, but he’ll beat his RB34 ADP.

James Conner, RB, Arizona Cardinals

So if you had to draw up how the drafting community acts, you’d probably get it right overall. If we draft a guy low and he does well, we raise him in draft esteem the next year. If we draft him high and he struggles, we drop him the next. It makes sense. And no one exemplifies that more than James Conner. Match up his positional finish one year with his ADP the next, and you’ll do pretty well. RB6 in 2018 leads to RB7 in 2019 ADP. Check out the above chart and it tracks really well. And right now, Conner is RB21 in 2024 ADP, close enough to last year’s RB18 finish. It’s also worth noting: With one exception, Conner has bounced between over- and underdrafted through his career, and we underdrafted him in 2023. Given his age (29) and health history (multiple games missed every year of his career), and the arrival of Trey Benson in Arizona for 2024, I wouldn’t be shocked if his over/under trend persists yet again.

Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon’s reputation has bounced around over the years, which is why it’s fascinating that his ADP has stayed fairly steady. Starting with his second season, he’s been drafted between RB7 and RB14 every year, basically a low-end RB1 or high-end RB2 every year. This despite going from exciting, flashy young back to guy who only has a job because there was no one else. But no matter Mixon’s reputation, he’s been about the same guy, with between 1,410 and 1,519 scrimmage yards in four of the last six years (and in the two he came up short, he was on pace to do so absent injuries). He’s the ultimate “by hook or by crook” guy, and his ADP (RB15) and team situation (only game in town for an excellent Texans offense) says he might just continue to be that.