Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
As more quarterbacks have changed teams in recent offseasons, those quarterbacks have stolen more of the headlines. It makes sense for real football talk. Quarterbacks are the biggest drivers of team success. But for fantasy football, skill players carry an outsized importance. And frequently, the quarterbacks who change teams make their biggest impacts with their old and new receivers and tight ends.
More than a dozen important fantasy receivers will have a new quarterback on their same team in 2024. And while my projections will have my final say on their changing circumstances, I ran a regression to estimate the fantasy impact of those new quarterbacks. I compared the fantasy differences in their old and new quarterbacks the year before the switch with receiver fantasy differences before and after that switch since 2012. And with the resulting regression formula, I projected the half-PPR fantasy points the 2024 New QB Club will gain or lose with their new passers this season.
Drake London and Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons
Quarterback Change: Desmond Ridder to Kirk Cousins
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: +3.5
New Falcons coach Raheem Morris may want to get the ball to Bijan Robinson as much as possible this year. But you shouldn’t let that scare you away from Drake London and Kyle Pitts. That duo saw more than their fair share of uncatchable targets the last two seasons. In fact, Pitts was a negative outlier with a 62.8% catchable target rate that was more than 10% lower than the second unluckiest tight end with 75 or more targets. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins led regular passers with a 94.9% accurate pass percentage in 2023. He should make a massive difference for his skill players in fantasy.
Garrett Wilson, New York Jets
Quarterback Change: Zach Wilson to Aaron Rodgers
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: +2.7
Garrett Wilson’s 67.9% catchable target rate ranked 53rd of the 80 wide receivers with 50 or more targets in 2023 — likely closer to the middle of the pack than you expected with Zach Wilson as his quarterback. But Zach also threw a ridiculous 50% of his passes behind the line of scrimmage. His replacement Aaron Rodgers threw barely half as many passes (27%) behind the line in 2022 and should unlock new areas of the field for his talented third-year receiver.
George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
Quarterback Change: Kenny Pickett to Russell Wilson
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: +0.6
Russell Wilson may be past his deep passing prime. But the veteran quarterback still bested his Steelers predecessor Kenny Pickett with a 16% versus 11% deep attempt rate in 2023. Pickett was a bad fit for his field-stretching former No. 1 receiver George Pickens. Wilson seems more likely to air it out and trust Pickens to make a play. That may lead to a few more interceptions. But Pickens should win in fantasy for the trade-off.
DJ Moore and Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears
Quarterback Change: Justin Fields to Caleb Williams
Projected* Fantasy PPG Difference: +0.2
DJ Moore and Cole Kmet debunked the theory that Justin Fields couldn’t support his skill players in fantasy. But Kyler Murray, Justin Herbert, C.J. Stroud and several other young quarterbacks have debunked the conventional wisdom that rookie passers need time to hit their strides. If you substitute his comp Kyler Murray’s rookie efficiency for Caleb Williams’, then Moore and Kmet look poised for encore fantasy seasons. Keep them high on your draft boards.
*Williams is projected with statistics from his comp Kyler Murray.
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts
Quarterback Change: Gardner Minshew to Anthony Richardson
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: +0.2
As a dual-threat passer and runner, Anthony Richardson might seem like bad fantasy news for his No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman. But at least in a small sample in 2023, that wasn’t the case. Richardson matched his injury replacement Gardner Minshew with an above-average 92.3% accuracy percentage. And he effectively matched Minshew enabling 34.2 versus 35.6 fantasy points per game for his wide receivers and tight ends. Pittman is a safe WR2 for 2024. And if your leaguemates let him slip in your drafts, jump at the chance to take him.
Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, Las Vegas Raiders
Quarterback Change: Aidan O’Connell to Gardner Minshew
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: +0.1
The projected Anthony Richardson passing upgrade may be a veiled criticism of his injury replacement Gardner Minshew. But the veteran journeyman still looks like an improvement over fourth-round rookie Raiders starter Aidan O’Connell. Davante Adams lost 372 yards and six touchdowns despite an almost identical 180 and 175 targets from 2022 to 2023. Don’t expect a full rebound in 2024, but Adams and Jakobi Meyers could take small steps forward in fantasy with Minshew.
Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson, Washington Commanders
Quarterback Change: Sam Howell to Jayden Daniels
Projected* Fantasy PPG Difference: 0.0
I doubt even a North Carolina alum could temper the Commanders’ excitement for their quarterback shift from Sam Howell to the No. 2 pick Jayden Daniels. But even if the latter player makes a seamless professional transition, his receivers Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson could lag behind in fantasy. Howell may have ended drives early with his league-leading 21 interceptions. But he also paced the position with 37.6 pass attempts per game in his 15 complete games. Daniels is unlikely to match that standard with his rushing versatility, and McLaurin and Dotson may tread water if they trade some team target volume for a few more red zone trips in 2024.
*Daniels is projected with statistics from his comp Robert Griffin III.
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Quarterback Change: Russell Wilson to Zach Wilson
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: -0.5
On paper, the Russell to Zach Wilson — or Jarrett Stidham or rookie Bo Nix — downgrade looks substantial. But Russell wasn’t the same player in Denver that he was in his prime in Seattle. His completion percentage and touchdown bounceback in 2023 captured a Sean Payton-driven shift to conservative play. Wilson still had a below-average passing DVOA last year, a distinction he avoided in his 10 seasons with the Seahawks. Courtland Sutton will likely see his statistics dip in this apparent Broncos rebuild. But those stats may not suffer as steep a decline as you expect.
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, Minnesota Vikings
Quarterback Change: Kirk Cousins to Sam Darnold
Projected Fantasy PPG Difference: -3.6
Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison had a taste of life after Kirk Cousins after the veteran tore his Achilles in Week 8 last season, and they likely found it bitter. Jefferson slipped from 18.2 to 15.4 fantasy points per game, and Addison fell dramatically from 13.6 to 8.7 points per game. That latter decline may overstate the quarterback impact since Addison enjoyed a target share bump when Jefferson missed time with a chest injury. But Cousins contributed more to his receivers’ fantasy success than even a typical high-volume pocket passer. When he was healthy, the Vikings ranked second in the league with a 63.5% pass percentage in the red zone in 2022 and 2023. Head coach Kevin O’Connell may not trust Sam Darnold as much in those spots, and that distrust would damage both their fantasy potential.
