Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
It isn’t often we get what appears to be a season-ending surgery this late into the offseason that has a chance to completely alter the fantasy landscape weeks before kickoff.
With the recent news that J.J. McCarthy suffered a torn meniscus and is set to undergo surgery, we now have access to an almost free starting quarterback in Sam Darnold, who is less likely to get benched, still available in Round 18 of best ball drafts and going beyond the top 200 picks. On the surface, Darnold holding onto the starting role for all 17 games may not seem like a big deal.
However, he had been undrafted for the majority of the offseason, which has created a massive leverage point in Best Ball Mania. With the contest already over 70% full, even if Darnold gets selected in every draft here on out, his rostership will come in far lower than it should be, which will make him arguably the best pick on the board. He’s a screaming value based on median projection alone and will give you massive leverage if you can sneak a Darnold team into the playoffs when players begin to overlap and appear on multiple rosters in Weeks 15-17.
Outlook
I won’t go as far as to call Sam Darnold a “league-winner,” but it would not at all be shocking to see him put together a Baker Mayfield-esque season, who coincidentally also happened to be top-three pick in the 2018 class who was written off way too early and turned his career around on his fourth NFL team.
Like Darnold, Mayfield was a new free agent acquisition with no guarantee to start all 17 games when he entered training camp in quarterback battle against Kyle Trask last season. Even after winning the job and being named the Week 1 starter, Mayfield continued to be overlooked and was still available in the final round and went mostly undrafted for the duration of the offseason. Those who took a shot on Mayfield were rewarded with low-end QB1 production that required almost no draft capital. He finished as the QB9 on the season and averaged 17.4 points per game (Weeks 1-17) and 22.4 points in the playoffs, the fifth most among all signal-callers in Weeks 15-17.
He was one of many late-round quarterback hits last season and joined Jordan Love (QB5), Brock Purdy (QB9) and Sam Howell (QB11), who all finished inside the top 12 at the position, despite being drafted beyond the first 14 rounds or not at all. Even C.J. Stroud just barely missed the cut and finished as QB13 overall (Weeks 1-17) and QB11 per game and was regularly available in Rounds 17-plus. A QB1 finish is well within the range of outcomes for Darnold, which would more than pay off his 205.6 ADP. He’s currently being selected as the QB28. There is some benching risk, but his 3,475.5 passing yard prop and 20.5 passing touchdown prop (FanDuel Sportsbook) bodes well for his outlook for most, if not the entire season.
Our projections see Darnold falling a tad short of both marks and are baking in the downside that another signal-caller may also see the field.
There isn’t a right or wrong way to draft Darnold, but I prefer him in three-quarterback builds or paired with an elite option. That will give me the flexibility to punt the position until the final rounds. I’m okay reaching for him to boost my exposure. That will cancel out the negative closing line value by maximizing leverage against the field. Because he won’t be drafted as often if the J.J. McCarthy news broke earlier, his ADP is irrelevant and won’t ever come close to optimal with only a few weeks remaining till Best Ball Mania closes or fills.
Stacking
I wouldn’t ever advocate for drafting a “naked” or unstacked pocket quarterback but am willing to make an exception for Darnold, who will come in under-rostered no matter what. With that said, I still prefer to draft Darnold with other Vikings on the team because if he hits, he’ll likely bring someone along for the ride. Justin Jefferson (ADP: 5.5, WR4) is clearly the priority to stack with Darnold, but there are other options dispersed all throughout the draft who require far less capital such as:
- Aaron Jones (ADP: 80.3, RB20)
- Jordan Addison (ADP: 86.9, WR47)
- Ty Chandler (ADP: 139.0, RB44)
- T.J. Hockenson (ADP: 143.1, TE16)
- Jalen Nailor (ADP: 214.7, WR97)
Jalen Nailor is the most fragile stacking partner but appears to have a lock on the third wide receiver role as the replacement for K.J. Osborn. He played all 12 snaps with the starters in Week 1 of the preseason and led the team with an 85.1 Pro Football Focus grade in the opener.
Although it is a small sample size, Nailor had already been generating buzz throughout training camp and has made the most of his opportunities. He caught all three targets from both quarterbacks for 63 yards.
His primary competition for the slot, Brandon Powell, also got some run with the first-team offense with Jefferson resting. But he only came on the field in 11-personnel or three-wide sets. Nailor should see an easier path to targets early in the season with Hockenson’s status up in the air (still recovering from a torn ACL and MCL). He’s currently on the PUP list with less than two weeks remaining to get activated. Otherwise, he will be forced to miss at least four games. Addison is also dealing with an injury of his own. He tweaked his ankle and got carted off earlier in the week and may face a suspension depending on the verdict of his October 2 court hearing. Nailor makes a lot of sense as a late-round pick for similar reasons as Darnold, but he will not be drafted at nearly the same rate.
