Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
The folks here at Fade the Noise have assembled an impressive array of talent. Whether it’s for season-long or DFS fantasy football, some of the industry’s best and brightest have joined the FTN team in an effort to guide you to glory.
The plan was to offer the same sort of high-end quality IDP coverage as well. But all the good IDP writers were otherwise occupied — so they got me instead.
Just call me Plan B. OK, actually it’s more like Plan W, but you get the gist.
In the weeks to come, I’ll be breaking down each of the major positions in IDP leagues, spotlighting some undervalued players to target on draft day and overvalued guys best left alone — all that good stuff. During the season, there will be tips and tidbits galore to help you navigate the weekly gauntlet successfully.
Oh, and there will be rankings. Because rankings are good. (In short order, my IDP rankings will appear on that page. For now, scroll to the bottom to get my initial balanced scoring IDP ranks.
In this inaugural edition of this column though, we’re going to look at the single biggest pitfall in IDP drafts and try to answer the question asked most often by people as they cast off the shackles of oppression that are boring team defenses in favor of the added strategy and excitement of individual defensive players.
Know your scoring
One would think it would go without saying that IDP managers should take some time to acclimate themselves to a particular league’s scoring prior to the draft. Just as in standard fantasy football leagues, there are innumerable scoring variations in IDP leagues. But every year, teams get torpedoed before Week 1 even gets here because drafters don’t bother to scope the scoring.
In IDP leagues, there are three basic types of scoring, all based on how valuable big plays like sacks and interceptions are relative to solo tackles.
The majority of IDP leagues are “tackle-heavy,” which means that the ratio of big-play scoring to tackles is 3-to-1 or less. In a tackle-heavy league, it’s all about high-volume “tackle vacuum” linebackers and safeties. Pass-rushing 3-4 linebackers take a big hit in value, and unless the league requires cornerbacks, all but a few are waiver wire fodder.
If the ratio of big-play scoring to tackles is 4-to-1 or more, the league is “big-play heavy.” In that flip side of the IDP coin, those same pass-rushing linebackers and ball-hawking corners that aren’t worth jack in tackle-heavy formats get a big boost. Tackle producers are still going to be the most consistent IDP options, but having a sack artist or three can make for some big weeks.
Finally, if the ratio of big-play scoring to tackles is between 3-to-1 and 4-to-1, the IDP scoring is considered “balanced.” Just as the name indicates, finding a balance between the consistency of high-tackle options and the upside of big-play guys is the key to success in that format.
Then there are the equally important matters of how deep the defensive lineup is and how those IDPs score relative to their offensive counterparts. Both play a huge part in developing a winning draft strategy.
If your IDP league starts just a single IDP (or one at each position), then regardless of how many fantasy points the top IDPs pile up, there’s no point in drafting defense early. There are just too many productive IDPs available late to burn a pick that could be better spent on offense.
Conversely, if your IDP league starts a full defensive lineup of 11 players that includes defensive tackles and cornerbacks, then it pays to be more aggressive when targeting defensive players. Winning your fantasy draft is all about scoring an edge at as many positions as possible. And in IDP leagues that deep, there are edges to be had by getting after it defensively.
Most IDP leagues fall somewhere in between. A fairly standard IDP setup features two defensive linemen, two defensive backs, two or three linebackers and a “flex” spot. In that sort of setup, how the IDPs score relative to offensive players becomes that much more important.
If Indianapolis Colts LB Darius Leonard (the consensus No. 1 IDP in 2020) only scores on par with a WR4, then he and all the IDPs behind him drop down draft boards. If the defensive scoring is meaty and Leonard slots among the top 30 players overall, that’s another story.
That brings us to the $64 question — the query most often asked in regard to IDP draft strategy (especially by newcomers to the format).
When should you start drafting IDPs?
The easy answer to that question is there is no easy answer to that question. Given all the possible permutations of lineup size and scoring, there’s no set time IDPs should come off the board. If you only start a few IDPs and/or the scoring is light, then the word of the day is patience — wait and wait some more before looking to the defense.
If the defensive lineup and/or scoring is stacked, loaded and/or otherwise chockablock (double word score!), you can expect the big names to come off the board early. I’m taking part in a slow draft right now in just such a deep league. The first IDP left the board in Round 2.
In a standard 2 DL/3 LB/2 DB/FLEX IDP league that awards 1.5 points (or so) for a solo stop and 4 points (or so) for a big play, the high-end IDPs like Leonard will generally start coming off the board somewhere between Round 4 and Round 6. Even then, that’s not cast in stone — it only takes one drafter to start the ball rolling.
If all that doesn’t seem especially helpful, we’ll finish off this debut column with a tip that is — you don’t have to be a pace-setter with IDPs to have a winning draft. If you’re unsure of when defensive players will start coming off the board and are leery of reaching, let someone else take the lead.
Once the first few elite IDPs are taken, there will almost always be a short lull — followed by the first real run on defensive players. Get in on that run, and you should be fine.
Of course, by the time we’re finished over the next few weeks, you’ll be ready to get aggressive. To attack your IDP draft. To cut through the noise.
Assuming, that is, that I don’t get fired in the interim.
Balanced scoring IDP rankings for 2020
Defensive linemen
1. Danielle Hunter, DE, MIN
2. Myles Garrett, DE, CLE
3. Aaron Donald, DT, LAR
4. Joey Bosa, DE, LAC
5. Cameron Jordan, DE, NOS
6. Nick Bosa, DE, SFO
7. J.J. Watt, DE, HOU
8. Chase Young, DE, WAS
9. Sam Hubbard, DE, CIN
10. Maxx Crosby, DE, LVR
11. Cameron Heyward, DE, PIT
12. Yannick Ngakoue, DE, JAX
13. Calais Campbell, DE, BAL
14. Brian Burns, DE, CAR
15. Carlos Dunlap, DE, CIN
16. Chris Jones, DT, KCC
17. Justin Houston, DE, IND
18. Frank Clark, DE, KCC
19. Josh Allen, DE, JAX
20. Dante Fowler, DE, ATL
21. DeForest Buckner, DT, IND
22. Arik Armstead, DE, SFO
23. Demarcus Lawrence, DE, DAL
24. Akiem Hicks, DE, CHI
25. Melvin Ingram, DE, LAC
26. Trey Flowers, DE, DET
27. Jonathan Allen, DT, WAS
28. Jurrell Casey, DE, DEN
29. Brandon Graham, DE, PHI
30. Dee Ford, DE, SFO
31. Derek Barnett, DE, PHI
32. Sheldon Richardson, DT, CLE
33. Geno Atkins, DT, CIN
34. Marcus Davenport, DE, NOS
35. Ryan Kerrigan, DE, WAS
36. Bruce Irvin, DE, SEA
37. Javon Kinlaw, DT, SF
38. Clelin Ferrell, DE. LVR
39. Mario Addison, DE, BUF
40. Kenny Clark, DT, GBP
41. Grady Jarrett, DT, ATL
42. Montez Sweat, DE, WAS
43. Stephen Weatherly, DE, CAR
44. Ed Oliver, DT, BUF
45. Linval Joseph, DT, LAC
46. Olivier Vernon, DE, CLE
47. Stephon Tuitt, DE, PIT
48. Jarran Reed, DT, SEA
49. Shaq Lawson, DE, MIA
50. Yetur Gross-Matos, DE, CAR
Linebackers
1. Darius Leonard, OLB, IND
2. Bobby Wagner, ILB, SEA
3. Blake Martinez, ILB, NYG
4. Cory Littleton, ILB, LVR
5. Jaylon Smith, ILB, DAL
6. Joe Schobert, ILB, JAX
7. Devin White, ILB, TBB
8. Fred Warner, ILB, SFO
9. C.J. Mosley, ILB, NYJ
10. Roquan Smith, ILB, CHI
11. Jordan Hicks, ILB, ARZ
12. Leighton Vander Esch, OLB, DAL
13. Lavonte David, OLB, TBB
14. Zach Cunningham, ILB, HOU
15. Shaq Thompson, ILB, CAR
16. Devin Bush, ILB, PIT
17. Deion Jones, ILB, ATL
18. Demario Davis, OLB, NOS
19. Jayon Brown, ILB, TEN
20. Christian Kirksey, ILB, GBP
21. Patrick Queen, ILB, BAL
22. Tremaine Edmunds, ILB, BUF
23. Isaiah Simmons, ILB, ARZ
24. Eric Kendricks, ILB, MIN
25. T.J. Watt, OLB, PIT
26. Todd Davis, ILB, DEN
27. Danny Trevathan, ILB, CHI
28. Khalil Mack, OLB, CKI
29. Kenneth Murray, ILB, LAC
30. Alexander Johnson, ILB,
31. Nick Kwiatkoski, OLB, LVR
32. Jarrad Davis, ILB, DET
33. Myles Jack, OLB, JAX
34. Chandler Jones, OLB, ARZ
35. Kwon Alexander, OLB, SFO
36. Tahir Whitehead, ILB, CAR
37. Rashaan Evans, ILB, TEN
38. Jamie Collins, OLB, DET
39. Thomas Davis, ILB, WAS
40. Germaine Pratt, OLB, CIN
41. Matt Milano, OLB, BUF
42. Jerome Baker, OLB, MIA
43. Logan Wilson, ILB, CIN
44. Sione Takitaki, ILB, CLE
45. K.J. Wright, OLB, SEA
46. Shaquil Barrett, OLB, TBB
47. Von Miller, OLB, DEN
48. Za'Darius Smith, OLB, GBP
49. Avery Williamson, ILB, NYJ
50. Benardrick McKinney, ILB, HOU
Defensive backs
1. Jamal Adams, S, NYJ
2. John Johnson, S, LAR
3. Derwin James, S, LAC
4. Landon Collins, S, WAS
5. Budda Baker, S, ARZ
6. Jordan Poyer, S, BUF
7. Keanu Neal, S, ATL
8. Jessie Bates III, S, CIN
9. Tracy Walker, S, DET
10. Malcolm Jenkins, S, NOS
11. Jabrill Peppers, S, NYG
12. Taylor Rapp, S, LAR
13. Minkah Fitzpatrick, S, PIT
14. Justin Simmons, S, DEN
15. Harrison Smith, S, MIN
16. Tyrann Mathieu, S, KCC
17. Kevin Byard, S, TEN
18. Johnathan Abram, S, LVR
19. Vonn Bell, S, CIN
20. Ha Ha Clinton-Dix, S, DAL
21. Karl Joseph, S, CLE
22. Terrell Edmunds, S, PIT
23. Justin Reid, S, HOU
24. Xavier McKinney, S, NYG
25. Damarious Randall, S, LVR
26. Bradley McDougald, S, SEA
27. Kareem Jackson, S, DEN
28. Chuck Clark, S, BAL
29. Eddie Jackson, S, CHI
30. Adrian Amos, S, GBP
31. Kyle Fuller, CB, CHI
32. Ronnie Harrison, S, JAX
33. Sean Davis, S, WAS
34. Shawn Williams, S, CIN
35. Justin Evans, S, TBB
36. Khari Willis, S, IND
37. Jeremy Chinn, S, CAR
38. Tre Flowers, CB, SEA
39. Marshon Lattimore, CB, NOS
40. Quandre Diggs, S, SEA
41. Jaquiski Tartt, S, SFO
42. Kenny Moore II, CB, IND
43. James Bradberry, CB, NYG
44. Antoine Winfield Jr., S, TBB
45. Micah Hyde, S, BUF
46. Marcus Peters, CB, BAL
47. Jalen Mills, S, PHI
48. Donte Jackson, CB, CAR
49. Jeff Okudah, CB, DET
50. Grant Delpit, S, CLE
