Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It’s second and three from around midfield. Lamar Jackson fakes a handoff, bounces to the left and sees daylight. After cutting back inside, Jackson gets to the 30-yard line, sees two Cincinnati Bengal defenders converge on him and spins away from both, forcing them to collide. A few seconds later, it’s 47 yards to the house, making for one of the best highlights of the 2019 season.
Jackson put together one of the greatest fantasy seasons of all time last year. He was impressive and efficient as a passer, but that was a secondary factor, because the difference-maker was his rushing, as Jackson set a single-season rushing record by a quarterback with 1,206 yards and seven touchdowns. Jackson, despite ranking 26th in the league in pass attempts (401), outscored the next-closest fantasy quarterback by more than 70 points. That’s an extreme example, of course, but it goes to show how advantageous the dual-threat quarterback continues to be in fantasy football.
Of the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks last season, eight rushed for at least 240 rushing yards, while five averaged at least 4.5 rushes per game. Overall, this group of 12 averaged 4.6 carries per contest. Seven quarterbacks averaged at least 20 rushing yards per contest in 2019 — that may not seem like a huge number, but that’s an extra two fantasy points each game. Since the 2010 season, there have been 41 instances where a signal caller has averaged at least 25 rushing yards per game in at least eight starts for a season. Of those 41, nearly half posted top-10 fantasy numbers at the quarterback position for that year. Year after year we continue to see rushing quarterbacks boost both their weekly floor and ceiling.
A big part of that added ceiling comes from rushing touchdowns — remember, in most fantasy leagues, passing touchdowns are worth four points, while rushing scores are worth six. We are seeing more and more teams utilize big, athletic signal callers from in close, giving them even more touchdown equity (see the touchdown totals of guys like Josh Allen and Dak Prescott). No, you cannot project rushing touchdowns, especially at the quarterback position, but since entering the league in 2018, Allen leads all players at his position with 17 rushing scores. The Bills also aren’t shy when it comes to putting the ball in his hands in close. Last year, Allen was responsible for 27.8% of Buffalo’s carries from inside the 5-yard line, the second-highest rate for any quarterback. He also averaged 1.4 red-zone carries per contest.
Allen is the prime example of why those rushing attempts are so valuable, as the quarterback’s well-documented issues as a passer haven’t filtered down into troubles as a fantasy asset. Despite ranking third-worst in completion percentage (59%), 33rd in deep completion rate (25%), 21st in pass attempts (461) and 30th in passing yards per game (193.1), Allen finished as the QB6 in all of fantasy in 2019, in large part due to his 6.8 carries and 32 rushing yards per contest.
Prescott, meanwhile, hasn’t been as dynamic as Allen in the yardage department, but he’s been very present in the touchdown department. He has rushed for six touchdowns in three of his first four seasons in the league, posting 21 scores on the ground in his career. Despite playing in the same offense as Ezekiel Elliott, Prescott handled 20% of the Cowboys’ carries from inside the 5-yard line in 2019, the fifth-highest rate among all quarterbacks. He is averaging 1.05 red-zone rushing attempts per game over the last two years.
We are seeing a ton of teams incorporate the RPO aspect into their offenses. Eight of the top-12 fantasy quarterbacks from last season were also inside the top-12 in plays out of the run-pass option. This type of usage can help identify some of the potential high-volume rushers at the quarterback position. It shows you which quarterbacks are seeing more designed runs than others, as the run-pass option gives players exactly that — the option to either hand the ball off or keep it and take off. For instance, your league leaders in rushing attempts out of the RPO from 2019 were Lamar Jackson (92), Kyler Murray (33) and Deshaun Watson (25) — no other quarterback was above 14 such runs. That is particularly interesting when talking about Murray, one of the best running quarterbacks and playing in a fantasy-friendly offense — the Cardinals ranked fourth in the NFL in average seconds per play (25.7). We know the potential for a breakout is there in year two because of the addition of DeAndre Hopkins, but don’t overlook the fact that Murray could legitimately add another 500-600 yards on the ground.
How else does rushing help quarterbacks for fantasy? Consider 2019 Cinderella story Gardner Minshew. The former sixth-round pick made some noise in fantasy during his rookie year, with his abilities as a rusher playing a large role. During the first nine weeks of the season, Minshew was a legitimate fantasy option, ranking 10th among quarterbacks in fantasy points and 11th in fantasy points per dropback (0.49). During that nine-week span, Minshew was sixth among all quarterbacks in rushing attempts (42) and fifth in rushing yards (235). Minshew also led all quarterbacks with 49 scrambles, which shows that if the play breaks down, he isn’t afraid to tuck the ball in and go get those yards. His less-than-stellar play as a passer (Minshew ranked 28th in adjusted completion rate during those weeks) didn’t impact his fantasy capabilities much. Because of his rushing, Minshew has top-15 upside in year wo.
Minshew isn’t the only sophomore passer with rushing potential. Daniel Jones of the Giants averaged 3.5 carries and nearly 22 rushing yards per game last season. In the weeks he started, Jones was sixth among all quarterbacks in rushing yards with 281. Despite a 62% completion rate, 6.6 yards per attempt and 17 fumbles, Jones was quietly a top-five fantasy quarterback in his 12 starts. Between his rushing and a (hopefully) healthy supporting cast, Jones makes for a potentially elite late-round target.
Nowadays, you are at a disadvantage if your fantasy quarterback doesn’t add anything with his legs. It is so nice to have that dynamic in your back pocket, especially if your quarterback is struggling to do much through the air in a given game. As Rich Hribar coined it, the Konami Code is an instrumental part of fantasy success.
