Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Obviously, what you do in sports is the most important thing. But as far as how you are perceived, when you do stuff matters a whole lot as well. Score 10 touchdowns in a year? Cool! If you scored 8 in the first half and 2 in the second, we’re going to ask what happened. If you scored 2 in the first half and 8 in the second? You might be a first-round pick next year.
In a lot of ways, it’s silly that we do that. But it’s also very understandable. And with that in mind, today I’m repeating one of my favorite exercises from last year: What would we be talking about if Weeks 1 and 2 didn’t exist? What if these last two weeks were our only data points? Let’s go.
Storylines If Weeks 1-2 Hadn’t Happened
Break Up the Ravens!
It’s one thing to start 2-0. It’s another thing altogether to do it in dominating fashion like the Ravens have. They beat the Cowboys 28-25 in their first game (in a game that was nowhere near as close as the final score indicates) and then followed that up with a 35-10 shellacking of the Bills. That’s two wins over two playoff teams from last year who are expected to be fighting to return there this year. Derrick Henry has 350 rushing yards and 4 total touchdowns through two games. Lamar Jackson has two top-five QB finishes. Justice Hill is the RB13 heading into Monday night even with Henry’s dominance. The defense is top-six. Sure, the receivers haven’t done much, and somehow Mark Andrews doesn’t even have a single reception so far. But … who cares? This is the early Super Bowl favorite in the NFL.
Same Old Saints
Turns out Pete Carmichael wasn’t the problem in New Orleans, as the switch from him at offensive coordinator to new hire Klint Kubiak hasn’t paid many dividends. The Saints opened the season with 36 points in their first two games last year in two wins, and now they have exactly 36 points through two games this year … in two losses. Derek Carr doesn’t even have a game with 10 fantasy points year. Give the defense credit for holding the Eagles and Falcons close, with losses of 3 and 2 points, but this offense just hasn’t offered much to get excited about so far.
How Does Shane Steichen Keep Doing It?
Last year, Steichen almost got the Colts into the playoffs despite missing wunderkind rookie Anthony Richardson for the majority of the year. This year, he has the team off to a 2-0 start, and that’s with Richardson scuffling through the first game and getting hurt again in the second, with Joe Flacco coming in cold and throwing for 168 yards and 2 touchdowns at a 105.9 passer rating. The line for Coach of the Year starts behind Steichen. Well behind him.
Dave Canales Does It Again … But Not How We Thought
When the Panthers hired “QB Whisperer” Canales this offseason, the general consensus was that he was there to fix whatever happened to Bryce Young last year. Instead, Canales went straight to retread Andy Dalton. In retrospect, there’s some logic there — Canales’ reputation came from rehabbing veterans in Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield, not in fixing young players who never got right. Why wouldn’t he do the same with Andy Dalton? The Panthers are 1-1, but with 60 points over two games. That’s more than they scored in any three consecutive games with Young at quarterback in 2023. Remember this when Dalton signs an eight-figure contract this offseason.
Oh, and the biggest beneficiary? Chuba Hubbard. Hubbard was a surprise stud last year, and he’s off to a roaring start in 2024, RB3 through two weeks behind only Kyren Williams and the immortal Derrick Henry.
Maybe It Wasn’t Arthur Smith After All
Everyone hoped Smith’s departure from Atlanta would portend great things for Kyle Pitts and (especially) Bijan Robinson. So far, nope. Pitts has 2 receptions for 59 yards so far (including a goose egg Sunday). Robinson did find the end zone a week ago, but he’s not even to 150 yards through two games and had fewer carries than Tyler Allgeier on Sunday. Smith certainly wasn’t helping matters, but it’s fair to be worried about Robinson now, and it was fair to be worried about Pitts even before this.
Breaking News: Injuries Still Suck the Life Out of You
All the preseason hype surrounding J.K. Dobbins being back to normal after his 2023 Achilles tear proved to be just that: Hype. Dobbins is dominating work in Los Angeles, but it’s not producing much — through 29 carries over two games, Dobbins has only managed 76 rushing yards, a rough 2.6 yards per carry. Another 6 receptions for 40 yards helps, but not that much, especially with no touchdowns. Achilles tears are (almost) undefeated.
Rookie Tight Ends Are Still Not to Be Trusted
Even someone as hyped as Brock Bowers might take some time to develop. Through two games, Bowers has 5 receptions for 60 yards, plus a 12-yard carry. There’s no shame in that! But anyone who drafted him under the thinking the most-hyped tight end in a generation would be an immediate difference-maker is certainly fretting right now.
You Didn’t Take Ja’Marr Chase 1.01? What Were You Thinking?
OK, fine, if you picked Justin Jefferson first overall, you’re probably not too upset. But other than that, no one taken in the first round is really offering up the kind of numbers we were hoping for … except Chase. Chase has 3 touchdowns through two games, with 203 yards and 9 receptions. The Bengals defense looks rocky enough that you can look at Chase as close to the WR1 the rest of the way, maybe the WR1.
Terry McLaurin: Taking the Leap
Jayden Daniels has been a revelation so far in Washington, and no one has been a bigger beneficiary than the Commanders’ erstwhile WR1, McLaurin. The veteran has 152 yards and 2 touchdowns on 11 receptions the last two weeks. Believe it or not, it’s McLaurin’s first time scoring in back-to-back games since Weeks 7 and 9 (around Washington’s bye) in 2020. Maybe this is the year McLaurin finally makes it up to the WR1 ranks.
