Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Thanksgiving is one of the best days of the year. Not only do we get to stuff our faces while spending time with friends and family, but we get to do it with a full day of football on television.
As has become the norm, we have three games on tap for Thanksgiving this season. The action gets underway with the Chicago Bears at the Detroit Lions at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by the Las Vegas Raiders at the Dallas Cowboys at 4:30. The nightcap features the Buffalo Bills at the New Orleans Saints at 8:20.
Let’s dive into some of the betting odds, trends and live movement for the three game NFL slate.
Bears at Lions Week 12 Odds
Date/Time: November 25, 12:30 p.m. ET
Arena: Ford Field
How to watch: Fox
Current odds: Lions -3.0 | O/U 44.5
Raiders at Cowboys Week 12 Odds
Date/Time: November 25, 4:30 p.m. ET
Arena: AT&T Stadium
How to watch: CBS
Current odds: Cowboys -7.0 | O/U 54.5
Bills at Saints Week 12 Odds
Date/Time: November 25, 8:20 p.m. ET
Arena: Caesars Superdome
How to watch: NBC
Current odds: Bills -4.5 | O/U 47.5
Thanksgiving Line Movement
We still have a full week before these games kick off, and all six of these teams will be in action Sunday. With that in mind, expect to see some line movement before these team’s kickoff on Thanksgiving.
There’s already been a bit of line movement to study. The Bears were listed as four-point road favorites on the advance spread, but they’ve dipped to 3.5. That could stem from the Lions’ tie last week vs. the Steelers. It was the first game of the year they didn’t lose, albeit against a Steelers squad playing without Ben Roethlisberger.
The Cowboys increased from -5 to -7 following their demolition of the Falcons in Week 10. They won by a final score of 43-3 in what was arguably their best performance of the year. They limited the Falcons’ offense to just 214 yards with three turnovers, while the Cowboys’ offense rolled to 431 yards. The Raiders were also walloped by the Chiefs on Sunday Night Football, so it’s not surprising the line moved two full points.
The Bills also had a bounceback performance in Week 10 against the hapless Jets. The Bills have shown some cracks in their armor recently, but they remain one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this season. The Saints are still trying to figure out how to best replace Jameis Winston, so the Bills have moved to 4.5-point road favorites.
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Thanksgiving NFL Best Bets
- Lions +3.0
- Raiders +7.0
- Bills -4.5
We’re still a ways away, but this is how I’m leaning at the moment.
The Lions are undoubtedly a bad football team, but they have shown some fight this season. Outside of their tie with the Steelers, they lost at the buzzer on a 66-yard field goal vs. the Ravens and had the Vikings on the ropes as well. Their Pythagorean win expectation has them as a two-win team, while the Bears are just 2.5-6.5. The current spread suggests that the Bears are approximately six points better than the Lions on a neutral field, which feels really aggressive.
In the second game, I’m buying low on the Raiders. They were rocked by the Chiefs last week, but the Chiefs were due for that type of performance. They’ve been a solid football team for most of the year, so I think they’ll be able to right the ship moving forward.
For what it’s worth, Dak Prescott is only 1-3 against the spread for his career on Thanksgiving. The Cowboys are used to playing in this spot, but they haven’t historically been very successful.
In the final game of the evening, I’m siding with the Bills as moderate road favorites. The Bills have had some hiccups recently, but I still think they’re the most complete team in football. They’re excellent on both sides of the ball, and they have an MVP-favorite in Josh Allen. The Saints are a competent squad, but they don’t have the ability to hang with the best teams in football.
