First TD Bets — Wild Card Monday Slate
Alex Christenson
On one side, we’ve got the Kansas City Chiefs, a 15-2 team going for an unprecedented third straight Super Bowl title. On the other hand, we’ve got the Houston Texans, default winner of a mediocre division. These teams played just four weeks ago and the Chiefs controlled the entire game. The final score was close, 27-19, but the Chiefs ended the game on the Texans’ 13-yard line and could have easily scored more points.
The Texans’ struggling offense finally had a big game against the Chargers last week. Can they do it again and pull a big upset in the Chiefs rematch?
Week-to-week charts represent that team’s single-game total DVOA. The extra line is a rolling five-week average. If you’re checking out FTN’s DVOA for the first time, it’s all explained right here.
Except for WEIGHTED DVOA, which gives more weight to recent games, all stats are regular-season only unless noted.
| HOU (11-7) | KC (15-2) | |
| DVOA | 5.3% (16) | 14.7% (8) |
| WEI DVOA | -0.1% (17) | 19.2% (7)* |
| Texans on Offense | ||
| HOU OFF | KC DEF | |
| DVOA | -12.4% (26) | -2.7% (12) |
| WEI DVOA | -15.5% (26) | -1.6% (11)* |
| PASS | -1.4% (25) | 6.5% (17) |
| RUSH | -14.4% (27) | -16.2% (9) |
| Chiefs on Offense | ||
| HOU DEF | KC OFF | |
| DVOA | -15.3% (3) | 10.8% (8) |
| WEI DVOA | -12.8% (2) | 16.0% (5)* |
| PASS | -9.8% (3) | 25.6% (11) |
| RUSH | -22.5% (3) | -3.0% (12) |
| Special Teams | ||
| HOU | KC | |
| DVOA | 2.3% (8) | 1.2% (12) |
| *Removes Week 18. | ||
The big story for the Chiefs is the span between Week 14 and Week 17 where they finally “flipped the switch” and played four of their best games of the year. The Kansas City passing game improved significantly during those games. (We’re leaving out Week 18 when the Chiefs sat Patrick Mahomes and other starters.)
| Chiefs Offense by Week, 2024 | ||||
| Weeks | Pass | Rk | Run | Rk |
| Wk 1-13 | 20.6% | 15 | -2.0% | 11 |
| Wk 14-17 | 51.1% | 6 | 0.6% | 10 |
Meanwhile, the Chiefs defense had started the year very strong, only to collapse after Week 8. This is timed to the injury to cornerback Jaylen Watson, although it can’t all be explained by the absence of one player. The Chiefs struggled mightily from Week 9 through Week 13, and then reversed things again over that four-game stretch starting in Week 14. Watson, meanwhile, is finally healthy again and will return for this weekend’s game.
| Chiefs Defense by Week, 2024 | ||||
| Weeks | Pass | Rk | Run | Rk |
| Wk 1-8 | -13.3% | 6 | -31.0% | 1 |
| Wk 9-13 | 34.2% | 30 | -2.1% | 24 |
| Wk 14-17 | -18.7% | 2 | -11.2% | 13 |
The Houston Texans defense is really, really good this year, so that side of the ball seems evenly matched if we assume that the Chiefs are going to play better than they did earlier this season. The Texans are No. 1 in ESPN’s pass rush win rate and the Chiefs are eighth in pass block win rate. Things are better since Joe Thuney moved over to left tackle. The Texans do not blitz much, they get pressure with their front four. The Texans were 12th in pressure rate by FTN charting, while Mahomes had the ninth-highest pressure rate among the top 40 quarterbacks.
Mahomes ranked sixth in DVOA this year against single-high coverage and 16th against two-high coverage. The Texans play both at about an NFL average rate, which means playing single-high about 60% of the time.
Will Mahomes be able to run a little? The Texans defense ranked 31st in DVOA on scrambles. Only the New York Giants were worse.
The biggest advantage for the Texans defense is on the ground. The Chiefs offense ranks dead last in the NFL in explosive run rate, yards after contact, and missed tackle rate this season.
It seems likely that the Texans defense can fight the Chiefs offense to a standstill, which means the big question here is trying to figure out where the Texans offense might have some kind of advantage over the Chiefs defense, especially with the Chiefs defense playing very well again and Watson (-51.5% coverage DVOA in the first half of the year) finally returning.
Houston’s big game against the Chargers was driven by an unsustainable big-play performance on third and fourth down. The Texans had -12% DVOA on first and second down with 5.0 yards per play and then 149% DVOA on third and fourth down with 10.8 yards per play.
The Chiefs are only 26th in DVOA against WR1 but Nico Collins in the first game caught 7-of-10 passes for just 60 yards. Tank Dell had the big performance in that first game, but Tank Dell is no longer able to play due to injury.
The matchups here just look terrible for the Texans. The Chiefs rank fourth in blitz rate and the Houston offense was 24th in DVOA against the blitz. The Chiefs defense ranks second in frequency of two-high safety coverage and the Houston offense was 28th in DVOA against two high safeties.
The Chiefs ranked seventh in pressure rate and C.J. Stroud ranked third highest in pressure rate out of the top 40 quarterbacks. Stroud was 22nd in DVOA under pressure. (Mahomes was fifth, in case you are curious. The top two quarterbacks under pressure play in the other AFC Divisional game.)
Regarding special teams: Both teams have an advantage in net punting. The Texans ranked second in net punting against a Chiefs unit with average punt returns. The Chiefs had good net punting against a Texans unit with poor punt returns.
