Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NFL Week 2 Sunday DFS slate is one sleep away, and after an entertaining rollercoaster of a slate last week, I’m back with my SuperDraft picks of the week.
Like last week, I will provide my top five overall plays on SuperDraft, regardless of position. If you’re new to SuperDraft, use the promo code FTN to get started with an instant $100 deposit match on deposits of $100 or more. Being a bit different from other DFS sites, SuperDraft uses a score multiplier instead of a salary cap, adding a different wrinkle of strategy.
Below are my top five plays for the weekend.
Justin Herbert, QB, Los Angeles Chargers (1.15x score multiplier)
I typically like to target quarterbacks who have a multiplier of 1.3x or better on SuperDraft, but Week 2 brings us an exception. Justin Herbert’s matchup is arguably the best on paper for any quarterback, and he still gets an incremental boost with a 1.15x multiplier. The game against the Cowboys carries a slate-high total of 55 points, which is the highest total in a game that Justin Herbert has ever played in. He has, however, played in three games last season with an implied total of 52 points or more. His production in that game speaks for itself, via the FTNDaily splits tool:
As shown, he’s seen a 13% increase in passing yards per game and while his touchdown rate has actually decreased, I wouldn’t expect that to hold against a secondary like the Cowboys. Fire him up with confidence and overall QB1 upside.
Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (1.4x)
With so many other running back options in good spots this week, the running back who saw over 30 touches in Week 1 has seemingly generated little buzz. Joe Mixon’s 1.4x multiplier on SuperDraft only makes this more of a smash play.
Mixon saw 33 total touches against a respectable Vikings front seven, totaling 127 yards on the ground and an additional 23 through the air while adding a rushing touchdown. The Bengals made it clear that he’s a three-down back, granting him 85.3% of the running back rushing attempts and 84.6% of the total running back touches.
Taking on a Bears defense that is typically not one targeted with the run game, Mixon should be in line for another massive workload that makes this multiplier an automatic value.
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Dallas Cowboys (1.4x)
Like Mixon’s, CeeDee Lamb’s multiplier just feels insulting. He was one of two Cowboys’ receivers to see at least 10 targets in Week 1, turning his 15 targets into a 7-104-1 stat line. The stat line could’ve been much better, too, if he hadn’t struggled with drops in the first half.
Turning his attention to a susceptible Chargers’ secondary that’s projected to be without Chris Harris, he should be primed for another massive workload in a game with an implied total of 55 points. Given that Dak Prescott has topped at least 39 pass attempts in six of his last seven games, a double-digit target effort is well within the range of outcomes here.
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Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (1.6x)
Sticking with the theme of the Cowboys-Chargers game, Mike Williams profiles as an elite GPP option on SuperDraft but also comes with a higher floor than we’ve typically been accustomed to with him.
He saw 12 targets in Week 1, catching eight for over 80 yards and a touchdown, as we saw a blend of his field-stretching upside coupled with elite volume. If Herbert is going to throw the ball 40 times per game, Williams is going to be a massive beneficiary. He’ll continue to get the high-value targets (end-zone, downfield) and after posting 118 air yards in Week 1 (11th in the NFL among WRs), he should be primed for another ceiling game against an even worse secondary. The 1.6x-multiplier here also provides an insane amount of value, even if all he does is bring in one catch for a 50-yard touchdown.
Darren Waller, TE, Las Vegas Raiders (1x)
Similar to what I mentioned in the Herbert blurb, I typically try and avoid a player without an additional score multiplier. The tight end position, however, is different. Given how big of a wasteland the position is, it’s hard to see any of the tight ends with a multiplier even sniffing Darren Waller’s ceiling without one. Regardless of the matchup, he’s going to produce strictly based on volume alone.
We saw this hold true in Week 1, as Waller had eight targets midway through the first quarter and finished with 19 total, leading the entire NFL. Derek Carr was nothing short of abysmal in the first half, too, throwing behind Waller on numerous occasions or letting the ball sail over his head. That doesn’t matter when you’re getting fed 19 times, though. Against a stout Pittsburgh defense, Waller should be primed for a similar workload. With no Josh Jacobs for Vegas this week, they could rely on the passing game even more, only adding to Waller’s stock. His standalone upside here is unmatched and this is a situation where I don’t want to get cute with a risky multiplier. Take the easy points and move along.
