Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
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By eliminating the traditional salary cap structure and providing a points multiplier for every player on the slate, there is almost limitless flexibility when building lineups on SuperDraft. You can load up on all the studs, but their point multipliers will be low. You can balance those plays out with some long shots who could score up to 2x their fantasy points to vault you to the top of the leaderboards.
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Similar to what has been provided in past weeks, here are three plays I will anchor my SuperDraft DFS lineups around. While there are typically five plays, I will provide three plays per week and add an “others to consider” section full of the players who round out the vast majority of my player pool.
This gives you the ability to lock in the key three and fill in around it. Below are my top three options for the Divisional Round’s four-game weekend slate.
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Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (@ TEN)
Score multiplier: 1.25x
Joe Burrow had a productive outing last game against the Raiders, going 24-for-34 as a passer for 244 yards and a pair of scores without turning the ball over. While productive, it may have been rather conservative. With a playoff game under his belt, we could see the leash lengthened against a beatable secondary Saturday. On the season, Burrow ranked top-10 in deep ball rate and top-15 in completion percentage on those deep passes, boding well against a defense that has shown the tendency to struggle against deep passes. Pairing him with Ja’Marr Chase is sure to be a unique strategy with so many opting for Josh Allen, Patrick Mahomes and Aaron Rodgers, giving you an immediate edge if we see a 300-yard, three-touchdown game out of the second-year star.
Elijah Mitchell, RB, San Francisco 49ers (@ GB)
Score multiplier: 1.2x
Derek Brown summed up the appeal to Elijah Mitchell perfectly in his game-by-game breakdown, as you have a voluminous running back colliding with a collapsing run defense:
“Since Week 14 the Packers are 32nd in explosive run rate and (non-quarterback) yards before contact allowed. Per FTN Data, 68.0% of Mitchell’s carries have come on zone runs. Over their last five games (65 carries), they’ve allowed a jaw-dropping 5.2 yards per carry and 2.38 yards before contact per attempt to zone runs.”
Combine the matchup with the fact that the Niners ran the ball at the fourth-highest clip (48.42%) during the regular season and his near-monopoly on the backfield and you have the safest floor at the position with astronomical upside.
Ja’Marr Chase, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (@ TEN)
Score multiplier: 1.15x
There are a handful of wideouts with lower multipliers worth rostering on this slate. and I strongly recommend rostering more than one of them. Also, make sure one of them is Ja’Marr Chase. The electric rookie logged nine catches for 116 yards on 12 targets in his first career playoff game and gets an even more enticing matchup this week.
Only six teams in the entire NFL allowed more total passing yards than the Titans during the regular season, as they also allowed the ninth-most yards after the catch, third-most passing attempts and ranked in the bottom half of the league in aDOT allowed (8.27 yards). With the Titans struggling to contain both possession and big-play receivers, a combo receiver like Chase should be set to thrive. If the Bengals want to win, this is the route they’ll take to do so.
