Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Sports gambling continues to rise in popularity, especially this week, with the Super Bowl just around the corner. Approximately 68 million Americans are projected to place a wager on the Super Bowl, with an estimated total of $23.1 billion worth of bets.
Below, I’m going to break down the key stats and trends you need to know for the final game of the season, featuring the Kansas City Chiefs and the San Francisco 49ers.
Super Bowl LVIII Betting Trends
Line and Total Movement
The 49ers opened as a 2.5-point favorite following their NFC Conference Championship victory over the Lions, closing at -1 Sunday night. The line has moved in both directions since, with the 49ers currently favored by 2-2.5 points in most books. Favorites are 36-21 in the Super Bowl — however, nine of the last 12 underdogs have covered the spread, including the Chiefs last year. As for the total, there hasn’t been much movement on either side, still sitting at 47.5.
Trends
- The Chiefs are the third team in Super Bowl history to be listed as underdogs after winning the previous season.
- The Chiefs have been underdogs just four times this season with Patrick Mahomes, including the playoffs.
- Andy Reid is 31-7 on the moneyline when his team is coming off 13-plus days of rest, excluding Week 1.
- The 49ers have been favorites in every game this season, including the playoffs.
- Over the last 20 years, the team that was favored more in the regular season is 7-13 on the money line, but 3-17 against the spread.
- The team with the better record in the regular season has covered the spread just once in the last 15 Super Bowls.
- Kyle Shanahan is undefeated as a favorite or playing at home in the playoffs.
Kansas City Chiefs
Regular Season Record: 11-6
Team DVOA: 5th
Offensive DVOA: 8th
Defensive DVOA: 7th
Special Teams DVOA: 7th
The Chiefs offense hasn’t been the same juggernaut as years past, ending the season 15th in scoring offense (21.8). However, they were still a top-eight unit based on DVOA, finally hitting their stride in the playoffs. They’re averaging 23.3 points and 363 yards of offense since the start of the postseason, holding their opponents to just 13.7 points per game during that span. The defense has continued to dominate in the playoffs, after ending the regular season allowing the second-fewest yards (289.8) and points (17.3) per game among all 32 teams. For as great as the Chiefs’ defense has been, they have been beatable on the ground, ranked 27th overall in DVOA against the rush (-1.7%) compared to fifth against the pass (-7.2%). They could be in for a long day trying to stop Christian McCaffrey, facing a 49ers offense that ended the regular season ranked second overall in rushing DVOA (17.3%).
San Francisco 49ers
Regular Season Record: 12-5
Team DVOA: 2nd
Offensive DVOA: 1st
Defensive DVOA: 4th
Special Teams DVOA: 25th
The 49ers were arguably the most dominant team entering the postseason, but they have shown some cracks in the playoffs, narrowly getting by the last two weeks. They ended the regular season ranked second overall in team DVOA, joining the Ravens as the only other team with a top-five unit on both sides of the ball. The only glaring flaw for the 49ers was on special teams, losing two games due to a missed field goal. Rookie kicker Jake Moody hasn’t necessarily panned out as a third-round selection, missing four field goals in the regular season, and twice in the playoffs. Aside from special teams, the biggest mismatch between the two teams is the 49ers rushing offense against the Chiefs rushing defense. It sets up well for Christian McCaffrey, who is currently the odds-on favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, leading the NFL in rushing yards (1,459) and finishing second in rushing touchdowns (14).
