Prime-Time First TD Bets — Monday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The NFL is in a golden age of Day 1 and 2 receiver talent. But not every early-round receiver has top-tier fantasy potential. Some are one-dimensional vertical threats that help their real teams more than fantasy ones with space-clearing deep routes. And some bolster their offensive profiles with value on special teams. You can beat the fantasy market if you understand prospect strengths and weaknesses, and my similarity scoring model can help.
The model projects peak ratios and identifies multiple comps for prospects based on a combination of their college efficiencies, combine measurements and drill times, and expected draft positions. The sim score comps may lack the nuance that a professional scout could cultivate from extensive film study. But they also avoid some pitfalls with their comprehensive approach and set reasonable expectations for many of the most important fantasy concerns like explosive play and red zone potential.
The listed comps include both a sim score and confidence level, the latter in parentheses. More similar players score closer to a 0.00, and the model is more confident with its comps when both players participated in more of the most predictive combine drills for the listed peak stat projections.
I already covered the running back prospects, and the series will conclude with tight ends next week leading into the start of the draft on April 25.
You can also check out my dynasty rookie rankings.
Marvin Harrison Jr., Ohio State
Predicted Round: Early 1st
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