Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Best ball is the fastest-growing niche in fantasy football, and that means playing without a defined strategy becomes more and more unwise. In general, these leagues pay out the top 20% at most. Due to the top-heavy nature of these tournaments, shooting for first provides the greatest return on investment. As such, a few key strategies can help increase the chances of taking down a top prize.
Stacking is one of the easiest strategies, building inherent upside into an individual draft. Stacking involves pairing of a team’s starting quarterback with one or more pass catchers on the same team. In theory, this approach raises the overall ceiling of a best ball team and requires less predictive ability. For example, if Tyreek Hill scores three touchdowns and records 100 yards, Patrick Mahomes also almost certainly scores very well. Now, extrapolate this outcome across an entire season and the same upside is displayed in a team’s final statistics.
In each individual season, certain stacks will be harder to acquire than others. For example, stacking Mahomes and Hill requires far more draft capital than stacking, for example, Joe Burrow and A.J. Green this season.
Looking ahead to 2020, here are a few stacks worth targeting in early best-ball leagues. The ADP data comes from BestBall10s. This data references standard 12-team leagues.
Dallas Cowboys
For those looking for an early stack, the Cowboys provide an explosive offense with players available at a variety of price points.
One of the more efficient offenses in football, the Cowboys scored 27.1 points per game (sixth-most) last season. While the team moved on from Jason Garrett as head coach, they retained Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator. This keeps consistency with franchise quarterback Dak Prescott and company heading into a 2020 that offers a lot of question marks when it comes to offseason preparation.
Prescott currently comes off the board at pick 73.2 (QB4) in early best balls, but he remains a value at this price. The Cowboys led the NFL with 8.0 yards per attempt last season, and Prescott’s 4,902 passing yards finished behind only Jameis Winston last season.
The Cowboys retained Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, who have ADPs of 33.2 and 71.0, respectively. The Cowboys moved on from Randall Cobb and Jason Witten, but they brought in 17th overall pick CeeDee Lamb (ADP 102.3). With Blake Jarwin (145.5) also poised for an increased role this year, the Cowboys look likely to retain their position as one of the most explosive offenses in the sport.
While landing Cooper and Prescott requires early draft capital, adding players like Lamb and Jarwin comes at little additional cost. However, that extra piece of an explosive offense adds an extra edge towards taking down that first-place prize.
Houston Texans
Looking a little later, Deshaun Watson (ADP 81.8) and the Texans also provide an interesting stack. A star at the position, Watson finished 2020 with 3,852 passing yards and 26 scores, while completing 67.3% of his passes. On top of his passing, Watson has at least 413 rushing yards in consecutive seasons, raising his floor.
Unlike Prescott, Watson’s cheap stacking partners make him a more desirable quarterback in best ball leagues. Both Will Fuller (ADP 79.0) and Brandin Cooks (93.3) fall outside the first six rounds in standard best ball leagues. The presumed top two targets for Houston, either or both remain acquirable for those looking to stack Watson.
While the entire offense may regress without DeAndre Hopkins in the fold, this team still looks likely to pass often. Despite sneaking into the playoffs, Houston actually ranked 20th in average scoring margin (-1.3). Their secondary also allowed 269.2 passing yards per game (29th), without making any meaningful upgrades this offseason.
Projected to trail often in 2020, Watson and company should see elevated pass volume this season.
Detroit Lions
Diving into the attractive late-round stacking options, Detroit stands out as an offense primed for positive regression. Last year, Detroit suffered an unfortunate turn of events with Matthew Stafford fracturing his vertebrae in Week 9.
Prior to the injury, Stafford was on pace for 4,998 passing yards, 38 touchdowns, and just 10 interceptions. With Stafford at the helm, Detroit actually went 3-4-1, losing three of four by one score or less. Without Stafford, Detroit went 0-8 to close the season.
Heading into 2020, Stafford (ADP 123.1) and the entire Lions offense remains remain mispriced relative to 2019 output. Looking at the pass-catchers, only Kenny Golladay (26.1) requires any major investment. However, a selection inside the top three rounds makes sense after Golladay racked up 640 yards and seven scores with Stafford. Extrapolated over 16 games, Golladay would have finished with 1,280 and 14 scores.
Marvin Jones (ADP 91.9) and T.J. Hockenson (ADP 127.0) come off the board as mid- to late-round selections. Similar to Golladay, both had better production while Stafford was at the helm.
For those stacking the Lions, landing three Detroit players remains feasible in almost all drafts. The NFC North plays one of the easier schedules in football, with Detroit checking in eighth when looking at opponent implied win totals.
Pittsburgh Steelers
A similar late-round stacking option, the Steelers offense imploded last season after Ben Roethlisberger’s injury. With every notable skill position player drafted at a discount, Pittsburgh looks option for those looking at late-round stacks.
Playing only two games last season, Roethlisberger now comes off the board at pick 139.8 (QB17). However, looking back to 2018, Big Ben remained a productive quarterback at the NFL level. During that season, Roethlisberger led the NFL in pass attempts (675) and passing yards (5,129). As an offense, Pittsburgh ran the fourth-most plays per game (66.1) and passed at the second-highest rate (67.39%) in the NFL.
After Roethlisberger’s injury in 2019, Pittsburgh predictably struggled. They passed at the 23rd-highest rate (57.84) and ran the second-fewest plays per game (58.6). Of course, this inefficiency trickled down to the entire offense, negatively affecting fantasy outpit.
However, JuJu Smith-Schuster (ADP 35.7), Diontae Johnson (85.7), and James Washington (189.1) all come off the board extremely late in early best ball leagues. While the Steelers remain unlikely to revert back to their 2018 levels, they should still see an uptick in offensive output with Big Ben returning to the lineup. With 2019 on the minds of drafters, stacking the Steelers for a bargain makes too much sense at this moment.
New York Jets
For those looking to implement an emergency stack, Sam Darnold and the Jets look like a prime target. While the Jets’ offense perennially struggles, Darnold retains job security. Coming off the board at pick 169.6 (QB24), Darnold falls firmly into the late-round dart throw category.
While Darnold has yet to take the next step in his career, a few notable situational factors point to him potentially producing in 2020. The Jets’ win total currently sits at 7.0 with heavy juice on the under. This suggests the team could experience negative gamescript and lead to additional Darnold pass attempts throughout the year.
The second reason Darnold makes sense in a stacking situation is the price of his pass-catchers. Breshad Perriman (ADP 140.6), Denzel Mims (ADP 183.2) and Chris Herndon (ADP 163.7) all remain late-round dart throws in best ball. Stacking this entire offense remains feasible in every draft and also allows a second team to potentially be stacked as well earlier in the draft.
While this remains a bold strategy, tacking on a Jets stack to the end of your best ball rosters remains a cheap way to bake in upside to a roster.
