NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Tennessee Titans.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Tennessee Titans
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Will Levis
Kelley: Tony Pollard
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Tony Pollard
Kelley: Calvin Ridley
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Will Levis Finishes as a Top-15 QB
Kelley: Titans Are Top-10 in Pass Attempts
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Will Levis
Levis is one of the biggest offseason winners in the NFL, and he’s set up to have success in his sophomore season. We’re used to seeing the Titans as a run-first team with Derrick Henry, but I believe they’ll be more pass-happy in 2024. The defense isn’t great, so they’ll have to be in the second half of games. The first big change in Tennessee was the hire of Brian Callahan (more on him below), followed by the signings of Tony Pollard, Calvin Ridley and Callahan’s former slot wideout in Cincinnati Tyler Boyd. Ridley, Boyd and DeAndre Hopkins make for a solid three wideouts. They may cut into each other’s production and be frustrating to own in fantasy, but that’s a nice group for Levis. Tennessee also has Chigoziem Okonkwo and Tyjae Spears. Both have shown they can make plays with the ball in their hands. On top of that, the Titans selected OL JC Latham seventh overall in this year’s draft. Buy low in dynasty while you can and take shots on Levis as your third QB in Superflex and Best Ball leagues the same way we did with Brock Purdy and Jordan Love last season.
Kelley: Tony Pollard
“Don’t take running backs the year after the injury, take them the year after the year after” generally applies to ACL tears, but in Pollard’s case, his serious leg injury to end his 2022 season came so late (in the Divisional Round) and was so significant (high ankle sprain and fractured fibula) that I think it works here as well. Pollard just didn’t have his burst last year, with his yards after contact per attempt falling from 3.8 to 2.9 and putting up 6 fewer runs of 15-plus yards (17 down to 11) on 59 more touches (193 up to 252). Last year’s rookie, Tyjae Spears, bested Pollard in most efficiency numbers, but if we assume Pollard’s “year after the year after” status helps him (and I do), his 2022 efficiency numbers crushed Spears’. The Titans offensive line was awful a year ago, and while it still might not be great, the talent is better, and they now have the consensus best offensive line coach in Bill Callahan. Most everyone was in on Pollard, and they’re out now. Zig when they zag. He’ll be back to top-15 status.
Busts
Meaney: Tony Pollard
Pollard was a bust last season, and it was probably one of the least surprising things in fantasy football. Pollard touched career-highs in carries (252) and catches (55) last season. He had 1,000 rushing yards for the second straight year, but he had fewer yards in 2023 despite nearly 60 more carries. He also had fewer receiving yards last season (311) compared to 2022 (371), even though he had 12 more targets and 16 more catches. Pollard is a great back, but he wasn’t as efficient without Ezekiel Elliott or a second back to operate with. Maybe working with Tyjae Spears will be good for Pollard’s game. Or maybe Spears is so much like Pollard, that he’ll cut into what Pollard does best and take touches away from him. One thing I know is that Pollard struggles in short-yardage situations and has been one of the worst goal-line backs in football over the last two seasons. Pollard’s 60 red-zone rushing attempts last season were the second-most in the NFL, but he only found the end zone five times, which was by far the lowest number of any back with 40+ attempts. He converted on three of his 17 carries inside the five and was 2-for-7 in that situation in 2022. How many red-zone rushing attempts will he get in Tennessee? Will he split time with Spears? Will he even have a goal-line role? How great is the line in Tennessee compared to Dallas? Or the offense? There are way too many unanswered questions. At RB28, the price seems fair, but he’s going around Zamir White, James Conner and Raheem Mostert, who I’d rather have.
Kelley: Calvin Ridley
Take out his breakout season, and Calvin Ridley’s career has mainly been that of a good, not great receiver with good end-zone presence. His breakout featured 1,374 yards on 2.4 yards per route run, absolutely elite numbers. Take that out? A 17-game pace of 995 yards and 1.64 yards per route run. You’ll take that out of your No. 2 receiver every day. But that breakout year was four years ago now, and since then he’s been at 1.5 YPRR as his teams’ No. 1 receiver … and he won’t be that in Tennessee alongside DeAndre Hopkins. And with two other competent receivers (Hopkins, Tyler Boyd), two good running backs (Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears) and a productive tight end (Chigoziem Okonkwo), it’s hard to imagine Ridley dominating TD share enough to overcome his efficiency deficiency.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Will Levis Finishes as a Top-10 QB
This prediction has a lot to do with new head coach Brian Callahan. Levis has a lot of special talents, and I think Callahan can get the most out of him, just like he did with Jake Browning when Joe Burrow was sidelined last season. Callahan has coached a lot of talented quarterbacks such as Peyton Manning, Matthew Stafford, Burrow and Derek Carr. Of course, Carr sticks out like a sore thumb, but he was able to get over 4,000 passing yards out of Carr in 2018, which was a career high at the time. Callahan’s play-calling abilities and the weapons he has at his disposal are why Levis will take the next step. Let’s not forget his 26.62 fantasy points showing in his first ever NFL start. Levis had three other games with at least 15 fantasy points. It’s not a stretch to think he can jump inside the top 15 at QB. All he’ll need to do is average 17 points per game and he’s knocking on the door of being a QB1.
Kelley: Titans Are Top-10 in Pass Attempts
A year ago, only the 49ers (491) had fewer pass attempts than the Titans’ 494. Only the Jets (2,919), Giants (2,886) and Panthers (2,741) had fewer passing yards than the Titans’ 3,067. But every move the team made this offseason says the plan is to go pass-heavier. Replacing the 6-foot-3, 247-pound Derrick Henry with the 6-0, 209 Tony Pollard screams for more RB passes and fewer RB handoffs. Adding Calvin Ridley and Tyler Boyd says the same. New head coach Brian Callahan’s Bengals offense was seventh in pass attempts a year ago. The team’s first-rounder, JC Latham, is a better pass protector than run protector. And with six games against C.J. Stroud, Trevor Lawrence and Anthony Richardson before even considering the out-of-division schedule, the Titans are likely to find themselves in high-scoring games this season and need to pass to keep up.
