Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The New York Jets.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: New York Jets
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Malachi Corley
Kelley: Tyler Conklin
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Mike Williams
Kelley: Mike Williams
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Garrett Wilson Leads the NFL in Touchdowns
Kelley: Jets Miss the Playoffs
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Malachi Corley
Corley’s outlook in dynasty is unclear with 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers under center for who knows how much longer in New York, but he’s appealing in redraft leagues. With Garrett Wilson and Mike Williams on the outside, Corley should have a role in the slot as early as Week 1. The 65th overall pick by the Jets is an athletic and physical wideout who turns into a freak when he has the ball in his hands. Corley is extremely difficult to bring down, and his 12.5 and 12.7 yards per catch numbers over the past two seasons suggest that. The level of competition at Western Kentucky is a touch low, but he impressed with 11 touchdowns in each of his last two seasons. Corley may be third or fourth on the depth chart in terms of targets when you include Breece Hall, but don’t be surprised if Corley finishes second in catches at the WR position in New York.
Kelley: Tyler Conklin
Only seven tight ends have had more targets the last three years than Tyler Conklin’s 261 (he’s had exactly 87 each year). Their quarterbacks have been primarily Patrick Mahomes, Jared Goff/Kirk Cousins, Lamar Jackson, Trevor Lawrence, Dak Prescott/C.J. Stroud, Jimmy Garoppolo/Brock Purdy and Matthew Stafford. Conklin got to catch passes from Kirk Cousins in 2021, but with Justin Jefferson, Adam Thielen and K.J. Osborn to contend with. And since moving to New York, it’s been Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, Chris Streveler, Tim Boyle, Trevor Siemian … which helps to explain why he’s only scored 6 touchdowns in that span (tied for the fewest among the 20 most targets tight ends) and had 1,766 yards.
Even if Aaron Rodgers isn’t vintage Aaron Rodgers, he’s better than Zach Wilson & Friends, and he should help Conklin turn his strong target load into better results. Locked-in fantasy starter? No, probably not. But given he’s only TE22 in early ADP, he should soar past that and be a strong weekly TE2.
Busts
Meaney: Mike Williams
I hate to be that guy, but I have Mike Williams as a bust simply because he can’t seem to stay on the field. Williams fractured his vertebrae at Clemson and has suffered numerous injuries at the pro level, including a broken back, an ankle sprain, hamstring pull and a torn ACL which limited him to three games last season. Williams has been one of the best deep-ball wideouts in football since he entered the league in 2017 (15.6 yards per catch), but he’s been held to five or fewer touchdowns in five of his six seasons. There’s no timetable for Williams’ return to the football field, but it does sound like he has a real shot to be ready for Week 1. However, with the move to New York, it’s not only Williams’ injury history you have to worry about as he enters his age 30 season, you also have to worry about Aaron Rodgers as he recovers from a ruptured Achilles.
Kelley: Mike Williams
This is more of a bust by reputation than it is a bust by ADP, because drafters are only taking Mike Williams as WR55 through early ADP, which frankly surprised me. That said, if he shows to be healthy in workouts and training camp, I fully expect that ADP to improve … and that’s where the mistake comes in. After spreading the ball around a fair amount early in his career, Aaron Rodgers has developed into a quarterback who finds his top receiver and sticks with him — he hasn’t had multiple receivers top 200 PPR points in a season since 2016, and only twice since 2012 (2014 and 2016). Garrett Wilson is going to lead the Jets in targets. Williams is very likely to finish second, but given the team has an elite running back and a strong defense that should prevent shootouts, it’s hard to imagine “Rodgers’ No. 2 receiver” is going to get enough work to be a fantasy factor in 2024.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Garrett Wilson Leads the NFL in Touchdowns
It’s either this or Rodgers busts again in 2024. Honestly, I have my concerns about Rodgers, but if he can play a full season, Wilson could lead the NFL in touchdowns. Wilson only has seven touchdowns in two seasons in the NFL, but we all know that’s not on him. The former 10th overall pick in 2022 has had nothing to work with at QB since he entered the league, and Rodgers only played a few snaps last season. Wilson has racked up over 315 targets in his first two seasons, but he only has 178 catches. We know he can beat any corner in the league and is a red-zone threat for Rodgers. The offensive line has improved and the defense remains strong. He just needs Aaron to play a full season so we can see his ceiling. Keep in mind Davante Adams had five double-digit touchdown seasons from 2016-2021, including 18 in 2020. I don’t want to compare the two, but Wilson will be leaned on just like Adams was with Rodgers in Green Bay. That’s a fact!
Kelley: Jets Miss the Playoffs
It’s not that Aaron Rodgers is old and coming off an Achilles tear (he’s exactly one week older than me — I want him to play forever). It’s not that the team is built on an excellent pass defense, and that’s the most volatile year-over-year aspect of a team. It’s not that their fame and notoriety resulted in a very randomized schedule with little consistency — the Jets don’t play at 1 p.m. ET Sunday in consecutive weeks until December, and only have three 1 p.m. games all season through Week 13. It’s not even that the Jets play in a division with two other contending teams and in the much harder of the two conferences. It’s … well, it’s all of those things at once. The Jets have as high a ceiling as just about any team in the league, but they have a low floor, and more has to go right for the Jets than most others.
