Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Los Angeles Rams.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Los Angeles Rams
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Demarcus Robinson
Kelley: Colby Parkinson
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Kyren Williams
Kelley: Puka Nacua
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Matthew Stafford To Lead The NFL In Passing Touchdowns
Kelley: Matthew Stafford Is a QB1
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Demarcus Robinson
Robinson is one of my favorite late-round targets, especially in best ball formats. If you’re able to get your hands on Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, you can easily complete an LA Rams stack with Matthew Stafford and Robinson late in drafts. Robinson surpassed Tutu Atwell as the third wide receiver on the depth chart thanks to a strong finish to the season, and he’ll open up as WR3 in 2024. Robinson scored a touchdown in four of his final five games of the regular season, and over that span he averaged 6.8 targets, 4.2 catches and 63.8 receiving yards. I know what you’re thinking and the answer is no, Kupp wasn’t hurt during that run by Robinson. It’s a fair question to bring up, though, as Kupp has missed 13 games over the past two seasons and is 31 years old.
Kelley: Colby Parkinson
So I really wanted to recommend a pass-catching running back for the Rams as the sleeper, because for all Kyren Williams did well las year, the best you can say about him as a receiver is he’s not the worst, and even that just barely — among all 140 running backs with at least 1 target last year, his 38.5 PFF receiving grade was 131st, and among the 57 with more than 20 targets, he was dead last. The problem? The Rams don’t have a receiving back. Zach Evans had 30 receptions in three years in college, none in the NFL. Boston Scott was a decent receiving back early in his career, but he has 9 receptions the last two seasons. Ronnie Rivers has played 118 snaps in two seasons. Even the big-name addition, third-rounder Blake Corum, is there for his rushing skill — he had 56 receptions in four years as the every-single-freaking-down back at Michigan.
So who catches the short targets, the dumpoffs, in Los Angeles? Demarcus Robinson had a 13.2-yard aDOT last year. Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp will get some of them, but they aren’t there for the quick passes and dumpoffs. Tyler Higbee didn’t even get his ACL surgery until the end of February, so we might not see him until midseason if at all. But the Rams grabbed Colby Parkinson early in free agency. Parkinson’s never done much in the NFL, but he was trapped in a committee in Seattle. In Los Angeles, he’ll compete with Davis Allen for the No. 1 job until Higbee returns, and Parkinson is my pick to emerge and put up mid-range TE2 value for as long as he’s the starter.
Busts
Meaney: Kyren Williams
Williams broke out last season to the tune of 1,144 rushing yards, 12 rushing touchdowns, 32 catches, 206 receiving yards and three receiving touchdowns. He took control of the backfield early before suffering a high ankle sprain in Week 7. He balled out when he returned in Week 12 en route to an RB6 finish (RB2 in points per game) in a half-point setting. In his final six regular season games, Kyren averaged 21.8 attempts, 90.8 rushing yards and 3.1 catches. The only person who flirted with that type of volume and production down the stretch of the season was CMC. At 5-foot-9, 202 pounds, I wonder if Kyren can handle that type of workload over a full season. I’d say the Rams have the same concerns since they drafted Blake Corum in the third round. Corum was a workhorse back with Michigan who will no doubt cut into Williams’ workload. We know because Williams said so himself. On top of that, Williams is already dealing with a foot injury. Rams’ head coach Sean McVay has drafted a running back each year he’s been with Los Angeles, and he’s always surprising fantasy owners when it comes to his RB touches.
Kelley: Puka Nacua
This one hurts. I believe in Puka Nacua, and I was in on him early last year. But you know who doesn’t appear to believe in him? The Rams. Nacua earned a lot of targets in 2023, and that’s likely to happen again. He’s pretty safe for 130 targets even on the low end (assuming he continues landing on the good side of the Puka Cycle). The bad part is that, even with all the targets he gets, they won’t be the valuable ones.
Nacua had 16 red-zone targets last year. That was 22.2% of the Rams’ total red-zone attempts. Among the top 10 receivers by ADP heading into 2024 (and excluding Marvin Harrison Jr. for obvious reasons), the only other one under 25% of his team’s red-zone targets when active was Justin Jefferson, at 21.6% (and I already listed Jefferson as a mild bust). And Nacua did that with Cooper Kupp missing part of the year and Demarcus Robinson not arriving until Week 9. From Week 9 to Week 17, Nacua had 9 red-zone targets and 6 end-zone targets. Robinson had 9 and 8, respectively, and Kupp had 9 and 8. Nacua will get plenty of targets and plenty of yards. He’s pretty safe as a WR2. But the team holding him back in the important area caps his ceiling, and because of that, his current ADP (WR7) is a bit too high.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Matthew Stafford To Lead The NFL In Passing Touchdowns
Stafford’s 24 passing touchdowns last season were tied with Lamar Jackson for the 11th-most in the NFL. He was 12 behind Dak Prescott for the NFL lead but just six away from finishing with the fourth-most. Keep in mind Stafford missed two games and Cooper Kupp was limited to 12 games. Of course, health is a major concern for Kupp and Stafford, but should both stay healthy, along with Puka Nacua, this offense should score a lot of points. Despite time missed, Stafford’s 78 red-zone pass attempts were the fourth-most in football. This is an offense that likes to throw the football under Sean McVay. Keep in mind Stafford tossed 41 touchdowns in 2021 and hooked up with Kupp 16 times.
Kelley: Matthew Stafford Is a QB1
Matthew Stafford finished as QB15 last year despite (a) missing two games and (b) having a fifth-round rookie as his only competent receiver for a big chunk of the season until Cooper Kupp got healthy. He had no worthwhile receiver out of the backfield and an offensive line that was decent by the end of the season but started out as a patchwork unit that most thought would be the worst in the league and looked like it in September. Now, he has Kupp, Puka Nacua and Demarcus Robinson, the line is ranked fourth in our offensive line rankings, and if Stafford can stay healthy, there’s huge upside. He’s never going to give you a lot on the ground (he hasn’t topped 100 rushing yards since 2020, hasn’t topped 200 or scored multiple touchdowns since 2016), so there’s a ceiling, but as a passer, he could easily top 4,000 yards and could even flirt with 4,500, and 30-plus touchdowns is well within his range of outcomes. (Related: Stafford is +2500 to lead the league in TD passes on DraftKings Sportsbook — tied for the 13th-best odds — and that’s a nice play.)
