Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Las Vegas Raiders.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Las Vegas Raiders
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Zamir White
Kelley: Michael Mayer
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Brock Bowers
Kelley: Davante Adams
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Gardner Minshew starts all 17 games
Kelley: The Raiders’ Top RB Isn’t Currently a Raider
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Zamir White
White was one of the biggest offseason winners in the NFL when the Raiders decided to let Josh Jacobs walk through free agency. Las Vegas selected Dylan Laube in the draft, but not until the sixth round, and I know you’re not worried about Alexander Mattison stealing important touches. Mattison scored zero rushing touchdowns last season, and the backfield was his in Minnesota for a majority of the season. White is in a good spot to finish inside the top 10 in touches in his first full year as a starter. For one, his offensive line is awesome, and it improved in the offseason as the Raiders selected Jackson Powers-Johnson in the draft. Powers-Johnson is one of the better run-blockers from the draft. In his one season as a starter at Oregon, he won the Rimington Trophy as the most outstanding center in NCAA Division I, as he only allowed one pressure.
We have the Raiders offensive line ranked as the fifth best in the league. On top of that, head coach Antonio Pierce showed fans in Las Vegas that they’re going to run the football when he took over. They did it with Jacobs, and in four games without Jacobs last season, White averaged 21 attempts, 99 rushing yards and 2.5 catches per game. White is currently getting drafted as RB24, and I believe he has the ceiling to be a top-15 back in fantasy football.
Kelley: Michael Mayer
A couple months ago, Michael Mayer set up as a mid-range TE2 with upside. Today, he’s an utter afterthought in drafts. Check it out, per our FTN Fantasy ADP Exploration Tool:
The “how” there is obvious — Brock Bowers showed up. The ex-Georgia tight end was one of the most exciting prospects in this year’s draft, and he was paired with a bunch of different teams as spots that would have made him a fantasy starter right away. The Raiders, who had just drafted Mayer with a second-round pick a year ago, was not one of those teams, but that’s where Bowers landed with the 13th overall pick.
But here’s the thing — there’s room for both tight ends to be productive. The Raiders, in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers, only have two relevant wide receivers (you’ll hear murmurs about Tre Tucker, Michael Gallup and/or Jalen Guyton, but I stand by what I said). This personnel positive screams 12 personnel on offense, lining Bowers up as a receiver and keeping Mayer in line. And yes, that means Mayer will have to block, but when you’re on the field, you’re available for targets, and if you can get a tight end who will get 50-60 targets at TE35 (Mayer’s current ADP), that’s a value.
Busts
Meaney: Brock Bowers
The Raiders can run two-tight end sets all they want with Brock Bowers and Michael Mayer. The truth is, it’s very rare to see two tight ends from the same team have success in fantasy football. Bowers will no doubt be the lead. He moves like a wide receiver and has been the best tight end in college football over the last two years. I’d be willing to buy in dynasty, but I’m fading in redraft leagues. I already told you I think the Raiders will be run-heavy, and they have two veteran wideouts in Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers who will dominate red-zone targets. Bowers is currently going as TE10 at pick 99.2 on average. That’s just too early for my liking.
Kelley: Davante Adams
A player doesn’t need an elite quarterback to be a fantasy starter. We know that. But elite wide receivers who don’t have at least decent quarterbacks are rare. These were the primary quarterbacks for the top 12 receivers: Dak Prescott, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Baker Mayfield, Justin Herbert, Josh Allen, Jimmy Garoppolo/Aidan O’Connell, Joe Burrow, C.J. Stroud. The worst quarterbacks there are Fields and Garoppolo/O’Connell, who got top-10 seasons out of, respectively, DJ Moore (who was almost literally the only game in town in Chicago) and Davante Adams (who is a Hall of Famer). Can Adams do it again with some combination of O’Connell and Gardner Minshew? Sure — he did it last year, and Minshew helped produce WR13 Michael Pittman Jr. But once you add in age (Adams turns 32 in December), decline (his 1.97 yards per route run in 2023 were his lowest since 2017) and increased competition (adding Brock Bowers to the mix), I’m out on Adams repeating as a fantasy WR1.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Gardner Minshew Starts all 17 Games
Gardner Minshew starting every game isn’t necessarily that bold of a prediction, but him being good enough to start all 17 games is bold. Let’s be honest, this is more about the lack of talent Aidan O’Connell has shown. At some point, the Raiders may want to get another look at O’Connell because he wasn’t great in his 11 games last season. There was a game where he didn’t complete a pass after the first quarter. Minshew will not only win the job in camp, he’ll keep it throughout. All he has to do is not turn the ball over and manage the game. He’s shown us before he can make big plays when surrounded by talented weapons.
Kelley: The Raiders’ Top RB Isn’t Currently a Raider
Zamir White was the RB9 in PPR over the last four weeks of 2023, when Josh Jacobs was hurt, averaging just under 100 rushing yards per game. That’s pretty good! But turning 397 rushing yards in four weeks into only 60.7 PPR points is actually kind of underwhelming. White only scored once in that stretch and only had 13 targets, despite being more or less the only game in town for the Raiders.
In fact, his production and appeal for 2024 both scream a very particular name, and it’s a relevant one: Alexander Mattison. White’s new backup in Las Vegas shot up to RB25 in ADP last year after Dalvin Cook left Minnesota, thanks to his appeal as a top handcuff during Cook’s Vikings tenure. And he turned that into an RB38 finish, a benching and ultimately a release. White’s big virtue right now is that he has the job. And that’s fine. But he’s yet to show anything special in the NFL, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the team goes out and finds someone to do it at least as good if not better.
