Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Detroit Lions.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Detroit Lions
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Jameson Williams
Kelley: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Jahmyr Gibbs
Kelley: Jameson Williams
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Jared Goff Is a Top-10 QB
Kelley: David Montgomery Outscores Jahmyr Gibbs
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Jameson Williams
This tweet regarding Jameson Williams couldn’t have come at a better time for me in this Sleeper, Bust and Bold Prediction series.
Whether it’s Mean Streets, All In Football or FTN Fantasy on SiriusXM, I’ve made it known I’m very interested in Jameson Williams, and I believe he’ll break out in Year 3. I understand that he’ll be the third or fourth option in the passing game, but he’s primed for a breakout season as the No. 2 wideout on a very good Detroit offense.
The 12th pick from the 2022 NFL Draft had a rough start to his NFL career to say the least. He tore his ACL in the College Football Playoff National Championship Game, which limited him to six games in his rookie season. He missed four games to start his sophomore campaign due to a violation of the NFL’s gambling policy. As noted above, though, Williams is healthy and he looks great in camp. The tweet from Nick isn’t the reason I’m in on him, though — I expect him to look good in camp and rise up draft boards. I also expect him to be in shape and not puke all over the field, but that’s a story for another day. I’m buying all the great things HC Dan Campbell has had to say about Williams. This is the first time in his NFL career that he’s active with the first team offense in training camp.
You could feel the breakout coming toward the end of last season as the former Alabama product racked up 159 yards on 11 catches in his final three games. That carried over into the playoffs, especially against the 49ers, as he caught a 22-yard touchdown pass and had a 42-yard touchdown run in the same game. This guy is a weapon and a big play waiting to happen, as evidenced by his 14.8 yards per catch last year. Some have compared him to boom-or-bust wideout DeSean Jackson, and that may not be for you. However, I’ll take the high-upside games and you should too, but only if Williams will be your WR3 or WR4. At WR48 off the board, it’s possible you can get him as your WR4 at pick 86.5 on average. I love to draft wideouts early and often, so I can live with the highs and lows of Williams, due to the strong floors I’ll have from my first 2-3 wide receivers.
Kelley: Amon-Ra St. Brown
The guy going as the No. 5 receiver in early ADP is a sleeper? Well, he is if he finishes as the overall WR1, which is what I think happens for Amon-Ra St. Brown in 2024. This is a team with an excellent offense, the best offensive line in the game, a quarterback who doesn’t run and thrives indoors, and a dearth of receiving weapons (basically just St. Brown and Sam LaPorta). St. Brown has improved his performance in every category over his years in the league (steady year-over-year improvement in [deep breath] targets, receptions, yards, touchdowns, PFF receiving grade, yards per route run, yards per reception and passer rating when targeted). He’s still only 24 (25 in October) and is the No. 6 favorite on DraftKings Sportsbook to lead the league in both receiving yards and receiving TDs. If you pick in the mid/late first round this year, you might just get the overall WR1 with your first pick.
Busts
Meaney: Jahmyr Gibbs
I’ll keep this brief because of how long I went on about Jamo. David Montgomery. That’s really all you need to know. Gibbs is the better back, there’s no question. He offers more, especially through the air. But this is a timeshare situation. Montgomery isn’t going anywhere, and it shouldn’t shock anyone if he finished inside the top five in red zone rushing attempts again. Gibbs is going ahead of Jonathan Taylor and Saquon Barkley, which is nuts to me. Those backs are not splitting time with other running backs. Let’s also keep in mind that Montgomery is the closer, and the Lions are going to win a lot of football games this season.
Kelley: Jameson Williams
At this point, if you’re still buying a Jameson Williams breakout, it’s based almost entirely on a single college breakout season in 2021. Literally. His career since high school includes:
- 2019, Ohio State: 11 games, 112 yards, 1 touchdown
- 2020, Ohio State: 8 games, 154 yards, 2 touchdowns
- 2021, Alabama: 15 games, 1,572 yards, 15 touchdowns
- 2022, Detroit Lions: 6 games, 41 yards, 1 touchdown
- 2023, Detroit Lions: 12 games, 354 yards, 2 touchdowns (plus 1 rushing)
So Williams had 1,572 yards in 2021, and in the other four of the last five years combined, he’s totaled 522 yards and 7 scores. There are obviously extenuating circumstances there (logjam at Ohio State, ACL tear, gambling suspension). And Williams has the ability. But Williams has the ADP (WR48) of a player we’re planning on at least being a real factor, while the other Detroit receivers behind Amon-Ra St. Brown (Kalif Raymond and Donovan Peoples-Jones) are going outside the top 120 receivers. Williams has more upside, but that’s too big a gap.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Jared Goff Is a Top-10 QB
Goff finishing inside the top 10 at QB may not be that bold, but he’s going as QB16 in drafts. He’s the perfect target for someone who doesn’t like to spend a high pick on a QB, which is my jam. The Lions have a strong offense and one of the better offensive lines in football. As a result, Goff ranks second in passing yards and third in passing touchdowns over the past two seasons. That’s with significant home and away splits:
2023:
- Home: 280.0 PasY/G, 19:16 TD:INT, 8.1 YPA, 70.1 CMP%
- Away: 259.4 PasY/G, 11:6 TD:INT, 7.1 YPA, 64.8 CMP%
2022:
- Home: 274.7 PasY/G, 23:3 TD:INT, 7.7 YPA, 65.8 CMP%
- Away: 245.8 PasY/G, 6:4 TD:INT, 7.3 YPA, 64/2 CMP%
What if I told you Goff doesn’t play outside of a dome until Week 9? What if I told you Goff will play in a dome in 14 of his 17 games this season? Make Goff a target of yours in superflex leagues and stock up on wideouts and running back before taking him with your last pick.
Kelley: David Montgomery Outscores Jahmyr Gibbs
Jahmyr Gibbs outscored David Montgomery in PPR last year, 242.1 to 207.2. He also had an edge in points per game, 16.1 to 14.8. Gibbs’ reputation coming out of his rookie year is that of an elite receiving back, but the truth is he was only good-not-great as a receiver, with only 316 yards (16th among running backs), 4.5 yards per target (54th among 69 backs with at least 15 targets) and a 62.8 PFF receiving grade (32nd). He also only scored one receiving touchdown. Gibbs has some upside left to uncover as a receiver, but he’ll need to take strides both as a pass-catcher and a pass-blocker to really be the receiving wonder that he’s reputed to be. Gibbs was better on the ground, with 5.2 yards per carry and an 81.3 PFF rushing grade. You know who outgraded him? David Montgomery, at 83.6. Gibbs’ fantasy success last year came in part because of his excellent scoring success on the ground, with 10 rushing touchdowns. Of those 10, only two came from the 1-yard line, and both were in Week 10, when Montgomery was just coming back from injury.
The scenario: Gibbs doesn’t develop as expected as a receiver, with some of that short receiving work going to Sam LaPorta. Montgomery gets all the short-yardage touchdowns that the Lions are so good at producing, and Montgomery and Gibbs split the ground work. Where does “Gibbs RB6, Montgomery RB22” (their current ADPs) fit in with that? Answer: It doesn’t.
