Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Chicago Bears.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Chicago Bears
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Roschon Johnson
Kelley: Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson
Biggest Bust
Meaney: D;Andre Swift
Kelley: D’Andre Swift
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Rome Odunze Leads the Bears in TDs
Kelley: 3 Bears Receivers Top 900 Receiving Yards
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Roschon Johnson
The addition of D’Andre Swift put a cap on Johnson’s ceiling as he heads into his sophomore season. There may be nothing here from a redraft standpoint, but at pick 190.2 on average (RB56), he may just be worth your time toward the end of your drafts. Johnson only had 81 carries last season, but he had a decent 4.3-yard average and racked up 34 grabs on 40 targets. The fourth-round pick from 2023 has all the tools to be a bell-cow back in the NFL, but it may not happen until later in the season. Be patient with Johnson and buy in dynasty where you can. He could have the third-down role immediately and he could play himself into more touches as Swift only has one full season on his NFL resume, and he’s struggled in red zone situations.
Kelley: Khalil Herbert/Roschon Johnson
The Bears have an excellent ball carrier, especially after contact, in the backfield. They have a young up-and-comer as well with sky-high potential. Neither of those players is named D’Andre Swift. Chicago pounced on Swift in free agency in one of the most puzzling moves this offseason (at least to me). Maybe if the Bears had known they’d end up with Keenan Allen and Rome Odunze before the offseason was done they’d have held off on the Swift move, because his value is as a receiver and they don’t need that as much as they had before.
Which gets us to Khalil Herbert and Roschon Johnson. I wish I could commit to one of them as the sleeper here, but the best I can offer you is “A Bears back not named Swift leads the backfield in yards.” Herbert was better last year (77.9 overall PFF grade vs. 65.8 for Johnson, 2.3 yards after contact per attempt vs. 1.9), but Johnson is three years younger. Herbert is probably the choice, but either way, if I’m drafting a Bears back, it’s not the big offseason addition.
Busts
Meaney: D’Andre Swift
Swift is coming off a season where he had career highs in games (16), carries (229), rushing yards (1,049) and total yards (1,263). However, he was only able to finish as RB23 despite playing on one of the best offenses with the best offensive line in the NFL in Philadelphia. Swift had to deal with the Tush Push in Philly, which won’t be the case in Chicago, but he joins a crowded backfield with Khalil Herbert and Johnson. Swift didn’t have much competition with the Eagles, and he was hit in the backfield on just 27% of his carries in 2023, the lowest rate among running backs. The line in Chicago is decent, but not as good as the Eagles who were No. 1 in run block win rate last season. Swift was beat out for the goal line role by Jamaal Williams in his final year in Detroit, and he isn’t a lock for the role in Chicago. We know Swift can make plays out of the backfield, but he had a career-low 39 grabs, 49 targets and 214 receiving yards, and he only had one touchdown through the air in 2023. He’s also not a lock for a third-down role, and at best he’s probably the third or fourth option in the passing game. There are just too many questions regarding the backfield and at RB23 and pick 86 on average, I’m not interested. Give me Zamir White, who has the backfield to himself at essentially the same cost.
Kelley: D’Andre Swift
I talked about this above, but while Swift has been an excellent rusher over the course of his career, his best value is his versatility, averaging over 350 receiving yards a season (including topping 350 each of his three years in Detroit before heading to a Jalen Hurts-led Philadelphia team that doesn’t pass to running backs as much). His surface rushing numbers look like they improved last year because of set a career-high in carries by more than 100, but when you look closer, his yards per attempt dropped by almost a yard (5.5 to 4.6), his breakaway rush percentage (percentage of runs going for 10-plus yards) dropped by more than a quarter (13.1% to 9.6%), and his avoided tackle rate fell from 20.2% to 17.9%. Add to that the fact that the Bears — who now have DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, Rome Odunze, Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett — aren’t likely to need to throw to running backs much these days and have a quarterback who averaged a 10-yard aDOT in college, and Swift is not going to sniff his RB21 ADP in 2023.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Rome Odunze Leads the Bears in TDs
Odunze will likely finish behind DJ Moore and Keenan Allen in snaps, targets, catches and yards, but Odunze is a big body who could quickly turn into Caleb Williams’ favorite target in the red zone. Odunze totaled 20 touchdowns in his final two seasons with Washington, including 13 last year. At 6-foot-3, 215 pounds, Odunze can go up and get it. The ninth overall pick has the size, physicality and body control to rack up a lot of scores with Williams for years to come, and they may come earlier than expected given the crowded WR room in Chicago. Moore has had four or fewer touchdowns in four of his six seasons, and 32-year-old Allen has missed 11 games in the last two years.
Kelley: 3 Bears Receivers Top 900 Receiving Yards
Only 17 teams in NFL history have had three players top 900 yards in the same year, with the Vikings (Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, T.J. Hockenson) getting there in 2023. The Bears could easily make it 18 in 2024. DJ Moore (at least 1,100 yards four of the last five years, including a career-best 1,364 last year) and Keenan Allen (at least 992 yards in six of the last seven years, including 1,243 last year despite missing four games) feel like relative sure things. So the question is Rome Odunze. He had 1,325 yards at Washington in college last year and is certainly more electric than Cole Kmet, Gerald Everett or D’Andre Swift. And narrative-wise, the Bears have every incentive to show off flashy rookie Caleb Williams in 2024, especially given this coaching staff desperately needs this move to work out to stay employed. Dumpoffs to the backfield and short passes to tight ends aren’t showing off. Electric passes to a pair of possible future Hall of Famers and a fellow dynamite rookie? Yeah, that’s showing off.
