Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2024 fantasy football season. Our Chris Meaney and Daniel Kelley are going to go team-by-team around the league all summer. They’ll pick sleepers, busts and bold predictions for each team. Sometimes they’ll agree! Sometimes they will go completely opposite one another! And that’s fine, because they’ll defend their positions, and you can decide for yourself who to side with. Up today: The Baltimore Ravens.
Below, they tackle the team, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2024 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Baltimore Ravens
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Meaney: Isaiah Likely
Kelley: Isaiah Likely
Biggest Bust
Meaney: Mark Andrews
Kelley: Justin Tucker
Bold Prediction
Meaney: Derrick Henry Scores 20 Touchdowns
Kelley: Lamar Jackson Sets a Career-High in Yards Per Attempt
The Explanations
Sleepers
Meaney: Isaiah Likely
The Ravens have a weapon in Isaiah Likely, and his upside was on full display toward the end of last season. Of course, it took a Mark Andrews injury for him to pop off, but I believe the Ravens will find a way to get him more touches due to how productive he was last season. It’s rare to see two tight ends from the same team have fantasy appeal, but this could be the season we see it. Baltimore didn’t do much at the WR position, and we’re not falling for the Rashad Bateman offseason hype again. Likely already showed us he could flirt with TE1 overall numbers should something happen to Andrews — maybe now we’ll see him crack top 10 status regardless of Andrews. If anything, he’ll be a threat in the red zone.
Kelley: Isaiah Likely
The Ravens offense is going to run through, in some order, Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and Zay Flowers. But that can’t be the whole list, and given the receivers after Flowers are Rashod Bateman and Nelson Agholor (neither of whom topped 400 yards last year), No. 3 in targets in Baltimore in 2024 is all but fated to be Isaiah Likely. Likely didn’t get a lot of run last year while Mark Andrews was healthy, but after Andrews went down, he was TE5 from Week 12 to 18 as the fill-in starter, with 5 touchdowns in six games. At this point, over two years, he’s shown to be the best No. 2 tight end in the league, and in an offense with no clear second-tier pass-catcher elsewhere, the Ravens have every reason to utilize two tight ends more often. Add in the chances that Likely gets any sort of run as the starter in case of another Andrews injury, and Likely is a potential draft steal at TE22 by ADP.
Busts
Meaney: Mark Andrews
In order to get a Likely breakout, we’ll need a step back from Andrews. The 28-year-old is still a beast when he’s healthy, but he’s missed time in each of the last two seasons. As mentioned above, I believe the Ravens will run more two-TE sets, and they may look to keep Andrews fresh. Fewer snaps and fewer touches could result in a healthier season. I also believe we’re going to see a much larger second tier at tight end, including possible breakouts from Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid and Kyle Pitts.
Kelley: Justin Tucker
Part of this is due to the Ravens having a relative dearth of possible bust candidates (and me believing in Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Mark Andrews and — mostly — Zay Flowers), but also, Justin Tucker is riding on a reputation in fantasy these days. Not completely of course — he was K2 last year, and he’s the best kicker of all time — but his upside has dropped in recent years. Tucker converted 93.3% of his field goal attempts from 2016 to 2021, with at least an 89.7% success rate each year. The last two years, he’s been at 86.3%, not topping 86.5% in either year. He didn’t miss more than two field goals from beyond 50 yards in any year from 2016 to 2021, but over the last two years, he’s a combined 10-for-19 from 50-plus, including 1-for-5 last year. He turns 35 in November, and while he should still have a few years as a worthwhile kicker, his days as “If you’re going to draft a kicker before the last round, you can’t go wrong with Justin Tucker” are behind him.
Bold Predictions
Meaney: Derrick Henry Scores 20 Touchdowns
King Henry landed in the perfect spot in the offseason, and he’s set up to score more than a touchdown per game in his first season with the Ravens. Henry is coming off a campaign where he had a career-low 4.2 YPC, yet he still finished with 12 rushing touchdowns. He did that on a team that averaged 17.9 points per game (sixth lowest), with (mostly) a rookie QB and a poor offensive line. Now he joins a Baltimore team that has a two-time MVP under center and a squad that ranked fourth in points per game (28.4). The Ravens finished first in rushing yards last season and first in RSH% (49.9%) according to our NFL Pace Tool. This really is a fantastic spot for Henry, who has seasons with 16 and 17 rushing touchdowns. Keep in mind that Gus Edwards led all running backs with 23 rushing attempts at the goal line in 2023. Twelve of his 13 rushing touchdowns came inside the 5-yard line and all 13 came inside the 10. No back had more rushing touchdowns inside the 10 or at the goal line than Edwards. Lamar Jackson only had five attempts inside the 5 last season, so Henry will get a big chunk of opportunities near the goal line, and he’s a much better back than Edwards.
Kelley: Lamar Jackson Sets a Career-High in Yards Per Attempt
Lamar Jackson ran for 6.9 yards per attempt in 2019. In the last decade, there have been 13 examples of a player rushing for at least 6.0 yards per attempt on 100-plus carries, and Jackson has three of those seasons (6.9, 2019; 6.8, 2022; 6.3, 2020), with Josh Allen the only other player appearing on that list twice. So a career high in that mark would actually be saying something. Here’s the thought process:
The Ravens brought in Derrick Henry this offseason, giving Jackson comfortably the best running back complement he’s had since he entered the league. That means (a) he can give the ball to a running back he can trust more often, but also (b) defenses can’t go with the “We’ll let the running back beat us, but not that guy” approach to defending Jackson, and have to split attention between both of them, opening lanes. On top of that, Jackson famously dropped pounds this offseason to make him more elusive again after having gained some weight and muscle the last few years. That should work to make him more slippery, but also, a lighter Jackson is likely one the Ravens aren’t going to call designed runs for quite as often, meaning he can put more effort into the runs he does get and won’t need to have as many carries as he has in the past — Jackson has 14 games of at least 15 carries in his career, with Allen (9) the only other quarterback with more than 4. Fewer carries means less wear on his legs means more efficiency.
I can’t swear it’ll be the best rushing season of Jackson’s career (though it might!), but it’ll be the most efficient.
