Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Welcome to Sleepers, Busts and Bold Predictions for the 2023 fantasy football season. All summer, our analysts, two at a time, will preview all 32 NFL teams for the upcoming season. We’ll pick a pair of sleepers, a pair of busts and a pair of bold predictions. Sometimes they’ll be the same pick! Sometimes they will directly disagree! And that’s fine. Today: The Chicago Bears
Below, Michael Dolan and Jeremy Popielarz tackle the Bears, starting with their picks in “The Answers,” then expanding on their picks in “The Explanation.”
2023 Sleepers, Busts & Bold Predictions: Chicago Bears
The Answers
Favorite Sleeper
Dolan: Khalil Herbert
Popielarz: Chase Claypool
Biggest Bust
Dolan: Darnell Mooney
Popielarz: Khalil Herbert
Bold Prediction
Dolan: Justin Fields is the biggest QB disappointment relative to ADP
Popielarz: Justin Fields is a top-three QB
The Explanations
Sleepers
Dolan: Khalil Herbert
Considering he’s penciled into a starting running back role, Khalil Herbert isn’t the deepest sleeper, but he’s certainly being slept on. The Bears ranked third in rush attempts last year, yet Herbert — who’s penciled into Chicago’s RB1 role — is ranked outside the top 30 RBs in fantasy right now.
The Bears’ addition of DJ Moore paired with some growth from Justin Fields may lead to a slight reduction in rush attempts next year, but they won’t abandon the ground game entirely. Running the ball will always be a key component of a Fields-led offense, and Herbert’s first in line to be a primary beneficiary. His upside isn’t massive because Fields will vulture some touchdowns and both D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson should steal some backfield touches, but barring an injury, Herbert’s a near-lock to outperform his current draft position.
Popielarz: Chase Claypool
As a rookie, Chase Claypool scored 9 touchdowns and produced 873 yards on 62 receptions en route to a top-24 PPR finish. He’s regressed each season since, leading to the Steelers trading him to the Bears in the middle of the 2022 season. He did not see over 6 targets or produce more than 51 receiving yards in any game with the Bears down the stretch. This is no surprise considering the Bears were dead last in passing yards per game at 130.5 yards and passing attempts per game with 22.2.
In 2023, I expect this to change, as Justin Fields will be in his third season, second under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. With a jump in passing attempts, there should be more opportunities for Claypool to produce more consistently. The addition of DJ Moore and the return of Darnell Mooney will also help open up more space for Claypool to produce as he will draw softer coverage. As the overall offense improves, Claypool should also find the end zone more often than he did a year ago.
Busts
Dolan: Darnell Mooney
Last year, Darnell Mooney was a popular sleeper candidate who wound up falling into the bust category with only 40 receptions and 493 yards. Entering 2023, many believe in the Mooney we saw in 2021 (81 receptions, 1,055 yards) based on the belief that the Bears’ passing attack will improve. Even if Chicago’s passing attack does improve, though, I’m not convinced that’ll positively impact Mooney.
Mooney was never a high-volume guy, and the addition of Chase Claypool knocked his target share down even further last year. In Weeks 1-9 (pre-Claypool), Mooney saw 5.8 targets per game. That number dropped down to 4.5 when Claypool entered the equation. Even if the passing attack does improve in 2022, DJ Moore’s a much more capable receiver than Claypool, and his presence will ultimately prevent Mooney’s target numbers from increasing any further. There are too many players being drafted near Mooney this year who possess much more upside, and I’ll be avoiding him in all my drafts accordingly.
Popielarz: Khalil Herbert
Khalil Herbert has become a popular name when forecasting potential 2023 breakouts, but I don’t buy it. Over his first two seasons, we have seen Herbert produce 1,164 rushing yards and 6 touchdowns on just 232 rushing attempts. This comes out to an impressive 5.0 yards per carry — last year, his 5.7 yards per carry was third among running backs (min. 70 rushing attempts).
Of course, this sounds all fine and dandy, but even with this he has yet to finish higher than the RB41 (he did miss four games due to injury in 2022). With the additions of D’Onta Foreman and Roschon Johnson, this looks like a backfield committee, which will limit Herbert’s touch total. This, plus a likely regression in yards per attempt, paired with a shift to a more pass-heavy attack, makes me believe that Herbert’s ceiling is capped. He will struggle to find his way into the top-24 PPR finishers this year.
Bold Predictions
Dolan: Justin Fields Is the Biggest QB Disappointment Relative to ADP
I can’t put Justin Fields in the “Bust” category because his rushing ability provides him with too high a floor. That said, I do believe fantasy managers who draft him as a mid-range QB1 will finish the season disappointed with their return on investment.
In fantasy football, the quarterback position contains a tier of six elite players – Patrick Mahomes, Jalen Hurts, Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow and Justin Herbert – and many think Fields can crack that tier in 2023. While it’s certainly possible, his ADP is simply too high to justify that gamble. Outperforming any of these six names will be a tall task for Fields, yet he’s priced as if it’s nearly a guarantee. If I’m not getting a surefire high-end QB1, I’d much rather wait until the later rounds and take shots there while someone else rolls the dice on Fields.
Popielarz: Justin Fields Is a Top-3 QB
Justin Fields has shown steady improvement over his two seasons, and his fantasy stock has risen accordingly. His 307 fantasy points last season were enough for a QB7 finish, with a significant portion of that total coming in the second half of the season after a slow start. He had a stretch of seven straight weeks of 20-plus fantasy points in Weeks 7-15, including back-to-back weeks of 40-plus. He led the league with 6.1 yards per carry, showing off his immense rushing upside and safe floor.
Now, the Bears have helped Fields by improving the offense around him. They added a true perimeter weapon in DJ Moore via trade, then picked Darnell Wright in Round 1 of the NFL Draft to help improve the offensive line. And of course, Fields is entering his second year in Luke Getsy’s offense, giving him some continuity. I expect Fields to take another step forward improving his consistency along the way. More consistency means improved fantasy production, which means a top-three finish in 2023.
