Should you draft TJ Hockenson or George Kittle in 2023: Fantasy Crossroads

All summer long, I’m taking a look at the fantasy landscape heading into 2023 and helping drafters make some of the toughest decisions. If two players are close to one another in ADP, who should you choose? That’s the plan here. This is Fantasy Crossroads.

For the first time this offseason, we take a look at the tight end position.

It is no secret that George Kittle is arguably the best tight end in the league but his role in the San Francisco offense isn’t as consistent as we’d like. T.J. Hockenson, meanwhile, clearly benefited from the move to Minnesota this past season.

T.J. Hockenson, TE, Minnesota Vikings

The Case for T.J. Hockenson

A change of scenery did wonders for T.J. Hockenson.

With the Detroit Lions from Weeks 1-8, Hockenson averaged just 3.7 receptions, 5.8 targets, 56.4 receiving yards and 11.9 fantasy points per game. And that production was absolutely carried by an absurd eight-catch, 179-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 4. His role in the Lions offense wasn’t as high as you’d might like, as Hockenson posted a 19.4% target per route run rate during his first seven games, while also sporting a modest 17.8% target share.

And then he was traded.

Ahead of Week 9, Hockenson was traded to Detroit’s rival, the Minnesota Vikings. From that point one, he was not only a focal point of the Vikings passing attack, but he was legitimately the second-best tight end in all of football. From weeks 9 to 18, Hockenson averaged 8.2 targets, 6.0 receptions, 52 receiving yards and 13 fantasy points per game. He trailed only Travis Kelce in receptions, targets and receiving yards during that span, while his target share climbed to 22.1% with Minnesota, while seeing a target on nearly 23% of his routes during that span. No tight end ran more routes than Hockenson once he joined the Vikings, while only Dallas’ Dalton Schultz had more end zone targets (6). Obviously everyone knows that Justin Jefferson is the best player on the Vikings, including opposing defenses, which led to the All-Pro wideout seeing the fifth-most targets against double coverage in 2022 (22). And as the season progressed, would see a ton of bracket coverage from opposing defenses.

T.J. Hockenson’s 2022 Splits

Entering the 2023 campaign, that volume shouldn’t be going anywhere. Yes, the Vikings should get more production from their WR2 spot this year than last year, as Adam Thielen posted the 16th-worst yards per route run in all of football last season. His 17% target share was the lowest since 2016, too. Still, in Kevin O’Connell’s first season in Minnesota, the Vikings’ offensive philosophy changed, as they transformed into a pass-heavy team. Minnesota ranked fourth in early down pass rate (58.3%) and third in neutral script pass rate at 64%. Meanwhile, the Vikings also passed the ball 63% of the time in the red zone, second to only Tampa Bay last season. Hockenson is the number-two target in a successful, high-volume passing offense.

The Case Against T.J. Hockenson

Assuming Minnesota’s scheme is identical to last season–and considering it is the same regime, I’d bet it is– the Vikings should be passing early and often in 2023. But still, there is a chance Hockenson’s targets dip if Jordan Addison is far more efficient than Thielen was in 2022, which is more than likely. If Addison surpasses Thielen’s insanely low 17% target share from last season, Hockenson’s production will take a bit of a hit, though there should still be enough passing volume to go around.

George Kittle, TE, San Francisco Giants

The Case for George Kittle

Just watch him play football.

George Kittle remains arguably the best all-around tight end in the league. Not many tight ends can stretch the seams as well as Kittle, while absolutely no one at his position is better after the catch. Like Hockenson, Kittle got off to a slow start last season, averaging just 33 receiving yards per game through his first three contests. Touchdowns were a huge factor, however, as Kittle scored 11 times on just 60 receptions. His near 13% touchdown rate easily led the position and is obviously unsustainable. Kittle closed the season on a massive run, finding the end zone seven times over the final four weeks. He remained elite after the catch, averaging 4.1 yards after the catch per target, which often helps him make up for underwhelming target totals.

San Francisco’s scheme is obviously very friendly and allows Kittle to do what he does best. And the insertion of Brock Purdy into the starting lineup didn’t hurt Kittle, as the All-Pro tight end was the top tight end in all of fantasy during the final six games with Purdy under center. 

The Case Against George Kittle

If Kittle played on the Chiefs, Bengals, Bills or even Vikings, he’d contend for TE1 status in fantasy. The only thing that has really held him back (outside of some injuries) has been volume, as San Francisco is a run-first offense at their core. As a result, Kittle has ranked 18th, 18th and 8th among tight ends in routes run over his last three healthy seasons. Kittle has to compete for targets in a loaded, run-first offense. He only averaged about four targets per game in contests alongside Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk all played in, while the target share was around 16% in those games. His weekly ceiling is as high as anyone outside of maybe Kelce, and Kittle will have plenty of huge weeks but also has a lower floor than other elite fantasy tight ends, as he was under 30 receiving yards eight times.

The Verdict: T.J. Hockenson

Simply put, if Kittle played in a pass-first offense where he’d consistently see 6-8 targets per game, he’d be the TE2 in my rankings every year. He’s that good and as an overall football player, clears Hockenson. However, Hockenson’s role is so much more reliable when it comes to fantasy football and his weekly floor feels much, much safer. If there was a decent-sized difference in ADP between the two, I’d easily go with Kittle. But if I am drafting a tight end in the range where both players are going, it is going to be Hockenson.