Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Fantasy drafts are rapidly approaching, which means time is running out to answer some of the toughest draft day questions. We continue our Fantasy Crossroads series with two of the best quarterbacks in all of fantasy. Patrick Mahomes took a step back last season but now finally has some serious wide receiver talent to work with. Jalen Hurts, meanwhile, has a brand-new offense that should greatly benefit him. So who should lead your fantasy team in 2024?
Let’s take a look.
Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
The Case for Hurts
Jalen Hurts has now put together consecutive top-three fantasy scoring seasons, averaging over 23 fantasy points per game during that stretch. Last season, Hurts set career-highs in passing touchdowns (23) and passing yards (3,858). His 15 rushing touchdowns tied Josh Allen for the most among quarterbacks, as well as the most by a quarterback in a single season. Over the past three seasons, Hurts is averaging an insane 12.6 rushing touchdowns per year. The Tush Push may have annoyed the rest of the league, but those with Hurts on their fantasy rosters absolutely loved the most unstoppable play in football. Hurts finished with 16 rushing attempts inside the 5-yard line last season, the most among quarterbacks and sixth most in all of football. He accounted for 53.3% of Philadelphia’s carries inside the 5-yard line, good for the 16th-highest rate in the league.
Hurts is going to provide plenty of rushing production, but I’m more excited about what he can do through the air in 2024.
The Eagles offense in 2023 was unbelievably mundane. It essentially consisted of Hurts, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith making plays down the field. And during the first half of the season, it worked because all three are fantastic football players. But when it didn’t work, this offense really stalled, which is exactly what we saw down the stretch. However, Kellen Moore will bring much more variety and movement to this offense, which is going to work wonders for Hurts. According to FTN Data, Hurts averaged just 1.63 yards of separation per pass attempt to wide receivers and tight ends in 2023, tied for the fourth-worst rate among qualified signal callers. In an offense with Brown, Smith and Dallas Goedert, you wouldn’t expect that. But the lack of movement in this offense played a key part. The Eagles ranked dead last in pre-snap motion rate last year (22.8%), while Hurts attempted just 81 passes out of pre-snap motion. And his 77 pass attempts with a player in motion at the snap ranked just 17th. The Chargers, meanwhile, ranked fifth in pre-snap motion last year with Kellen Moore calling the plays (55.7%). Allowing Philadelphia’s top two wideouts to move around the formation much more will create more layup pass attempts for Hurts.
The Case Against Hurts
Honestly, there really isn’t one. If I had to make one case against Hurts, I suppose it would be the fact that the Eagles brought in Saquon Barkley, who might finish off more short-yardage runs than D’Andre Swift did last season, which could result in fewer 1-yard touchdowns from Hurts. Last season, Swift was tackled at the 1-yard line six times, a top-three mark among all running backs. Meanwhile, the Eagles did watch legend Jason Kelce retire, and while that is certainly a major loss, this offensive line is still one of the top units in the league.
Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Case for Mahomes
Look out, NFL. Patrick Mahomes has wide receivers.
Mahomes was comfortably behind both Allen and Jalen Hurts in fantasy points per game last year, though his supporting cast was clearly the worst. The Chiefs addressed that this offseason by adding both Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy, giving this offense more speed and reliability on deep passes. In 2023, Mahomes completed just 31.6% of his deep passes, which ranked 33rd among qualified quarterbacks. That stat reflects his supporting cast much more than it does Mahomes. According to the FTN StatsHub, Mahomes’ 260 dropped air yards were the second-most in all of football. It was a huge reason behind his career-worst 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Simply put, the best quarterback on the planet just seriously upgraded the talent around him, on top of already having an elite tight end, playcaller and offensive line. Last season, Mahomes posted a career-high scramble rate of 8.0%, which, again, had a lot to do with the fact that no one was consistently open until the Chiefs finally gave Rashee Rice an every-down role. I fully expect Mahomes to return to 30-plus passing touchdowns in 2024, while he’ll also continue to give you some added rushing production. Mahomes has rushed for at least 300 yards in each of the last four seasons.
The Case Against Mahomes
He likes to put ketchup on his steak. That’s just… wow.
Since the Chiefs traded away Tyreek Hill, the only argument you could make against Mahomes in fantasy was his lack of skill position players. And that was clearly evident last season. However, between Rashee Rice’s impressive rookie season and the additions of Brown and Worthy, it appears that has been seriously addressed.
The Verdict: Jalen Hurts
You cannot go wrong with Hurts, Mahomes or Josh Allen for that matter. And I fully expect Mahomes to return to eclipsing 20 fantasy points per game in 2024. However, the weekly floor Hurts provides is massive, while I’m so excited to see what he can do in this brand-new offense in Philadelphia. And while I do love Mahomes’ situation this season, Hurts still has the better supporting cast around him. 4,000 passing yards, 25 passing touchdowns and 10-plus rushing touchdowns is absolutely in play for Hurts this season, especially if he is fully healthy.
