Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
(Follow along with the whole Fantasy Crossroads series as you get ready for your 2024 fantasy football drafts.)
Our Fantasy Crossroads series continues with a matchup between two tight ends who have immense upside but are being drafted outside of the top five or six at the position. George Kittle is arguably the best all-around tight end in the game, but middling volume has limited his season-long ceiling. Meanwhile, David Njoku was one of the best tight ends in all of football during the second half of last season.
Who should headline your fantasy roster’s tight end room?
George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers
The Case for Kittle
He’s as efficient as any player in football. At any position. And he needs to be. Kittle has continuously made up for middling volume with elite efficiency and even at age 30, that trend continued last year. His 11.3 yards per target not only led all tight ends with at least 50 targets, but it was also the highest mark of Kittle’s career. Since 2017, Kittle has ranked seventh, fourth, second, second, second, sixth and first. Despite his advanced age, Kittle also led the tight end position in yards per reception (15.7), yards per route run (2.22) and yards after the catch per reception (7.4). Because Kittle makes so many plays down the field and does so much after the catch, he’s been able to consistently finish as a top-five fantasy tight end, despite ranking just seventh among all tight ends in targets since the 2020 season. During that same span, Kittle is averaging an impressive 0.52 fantasy points per route run, one of the highest rates in all of football.
You also obviously love the offense Kittle plays in, which is perfect for his skill-set. We know San Francisco runs as much motion as anyone else in football. This past season, the 49ers used pre-snap motion 65% of the time. And individually, Kittle was in motion pre-snap 11% of the time, while his 54 targets with a player in motion trailed only Travis Kelce among tight ends last season. Kyle Shanahan’s scheme helps Kittle get open in space where he can make those electric plays after the catch. Only 16 of Kittle’s 65 receptions from last year were in tight coverage, according to FTN Data, which was tied for 17th in the league.
The Case Against Kittle
Imagine the damage Kittle could do if he saw the same volume as the other elite tight ends…
Between San Francisco asking him to run-block and the plethora of options in the 49ers offense, Kittle will have a handful of disappearing acts in fantasy. And it really isn’t his fault. It’s just the 49ers offense is so damn good. This past season, Kittle posted seven games as a top-three fantasy tight end, averaging nearly 19 fantasy points per game in those contests. However, he also finished as TE25 or worse six times, averaging less than five fantasy points per game. Playing in an offense alongside Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel has led to some middling usage from Kittle over the years. Since 2022, Kittle has played 26 games where Aiyuk and Samuel have logged at least 30 snaps. In those games, Kittle is averaging just 4.9 targets, 3.6 receptions and 11.3 PPR points per game. And during that span, Kittle is sporting a 17.6% target share with both Aiyuk and Samuel on the field, along with an 18% target per route run rate. But when just one of the wideouts is off the field, those rates climb to 21.4% and 30%, respectively. Of course, there are plenty of rumors surrounding the futures of Aiyuk and Samuel right now, so there is an outside chance Kittle is playing the 2024 season without one of his veteran teammates on the team.
David Njoku, TE, Cleveland Browns
The Case for Njoku
After a slow start, David Njoku was one of the best tight ends in all of football during the second half of last season. In fact, from Week 8 on, Njoku ranked first in targets (92), third in receptions (57), second in receiving yards (666), second in touchdowns (6) and third in target share (23.2%). His 15.9 fantasy points per game during that stretch also paced the tight end position, and he really turned it on once Joe Flacco took over at quarterback for Cleveland. It helped Njoku finish with career-highs in receptions (81), targets (123), receiving yards (882) and touchdowns (6). Kevin Stefanski’s scheme is very tight end friendly and with Nick Chubb sidelined for most of the season, we saw Cleveland throw the ball a lot more last year. From Week 3 on, the Browns were 13th in neutral script pass rate (58.1%), but that climbed to 64.3% once Flacco took over from Week 13 to the end of the season. That was the second-highest pass rate in football during that span, while their 63.5% early down pass rate led the NFL. I don’t expect Cleveland to rank that high in pass rate this season but with Chubb’s status in question, we should continue to see this offense lean more on the pass than we have seen over the last few years. And that is great for Njoku, especially after the team traded for Jerry Jeudy this offseason.
The Case Against Njoku
While Njoku shined alongside Joe Flacco, he wasn’t nearly as good with Deshaun Watson under center. In six games alongside Watson last year, Njoku averaged 5.8 targets, 4.2 receptions, 38.3 receiving yards and 9.0 PPR points per game. Watson’s Cleveland tenure has been one to forget so far, though he has to play better than what he’s shown, right?
And as we mentioned, Cleveland did add Jerry Jeudy to this offense, which (theoretically) gives this team a viable slot wide receiver. It will be difficult for Njoku to repeat his 21% target share from last season, especially with Amari Cooper still comfortably leading the team in targets.
The Verdict: George Kittle
Kittle is a few spots ahead of Njoku in my rankings and although I do expect his targets to be a tad lower, it won’t be by enough for me to overlook the absurd guaranteed efficiency. And if the 49ers happen to move on from one of their veteran wide receivers, Kittle will likely eclipse 100 targets, which could help him contend for overall TE1 production.
