Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
When it comes to fantasy football, we want young, talented running backs in high-scoring offenses. Isiah Pacheco and De’Von Achane certainly check all of the boxes there. And there is plenty of hype around both players entering the 2024 campaign, but which player should you draft this season?
Let’s break it down in today’s Fantasy Crossroads.
Isiah Pacheco, RB, Kansas City Chiefs
The Case for Pacheco
When the Kansas City Chiefs selected Clyde Edwards-Helaire in the first round of the 2020 NFL Draft, the excitement was through the roof. Yes, Edwards-Helaire was a talented prospect, but most of the appeal surrounded the fact that he was entering the league as the lead running back for the league’s best offense in Kansas City.
Four years later, that same excitement surrounds 2022 seventh-round selection Isiah Pacheco.
Pacheco has essentially become everything we hoped CEH would be. As a rookie in 2022, Pacheco climbed the depth chart, emerging as the starting running back for the Chiefs. Pacheco carried the ball 170 times for 830 yards that year (4.9 yards per carry), while his 5.2 yards per touch ranked 16th in football. He was second among all running backs in second-level yards per rush attempt (1.8), which are essentially yards 5-10 yards past the line of scrimmage. During his second season, Pacheco played an even larger role for the Chiefs, rushing for 935 yards and nine touchdowns on 205 carries. Among running backs with at least 150 carries last year, Pacheco ranked ninth in success rate (40%), 10th in yards after contact per attempt (2.6) and fifth in EPA/ATT (0.10), per the FTN Fantasy StatsHub. He also took a huge step forward in the passing game, increasing his reception total from 13 as a rookie to 44 as a sophomore.
I also love the fact that Pacheco has now put together consecutive seasons as Kansas City’s lead running back during their Super Bowl run in the postseason. This past season, Pacheco logged 75% of the snaps, handled 76% of the rush attempts and averaged just over 23 touches per game. But what I’m really excited about is the potential upside in fantasy if Pacheco can finally take over the third-down role in this offense.
Over his first two seasons in the NFL, Pacheco has played about 11% of the snaps on long down and distances, as well as 21% in the two-minute drill. Per the FTN Fantasy Splits Tool, from Week 11 on last year (including the playoffs), Pacheco averaged 18 carries, 80.3 rushing yards, 3.7 targets, 3.6 receptions, 21.6 touches and 19.2 PPR points per game. It was the second consecutive season he was a key piece of Kansas City’s Super Bowl run. Already the clear lead running back for an elite offense, imagine what Pacheco could do if he earned the third down role. Pacheco had just one total reception in the two-minute drill all season long, which ranked 45th at the position. He also tallied just four total receptions on third down (35th), while Jerick McKinnon ranked eighth in the league with 15. McKinnon, who has played a huge role for this team down the stretch over the years, is now gone, and head coach Andy Reid has talked up Pacheco’s ability to play on third downs. If he gets that role in year three, he has top-five fantasy upside in 2024.
The Case Against Pacheco
The argument against Pacheco is simple — what if he doesn’t get that third-down role? Because while his reception total increased tremendously last year, I do believe it was largely due to the lack of wide receivers in Kansas City’s offense. He had zero receptions as the first read last season, which obviously isn’t uncommon for a running back, but it shows that plenty of his production came from Mahomes checking it down because no one else was getting open. Fast forward to 2024 and the Chiefs now have Travis Kelce, Rashee Rice, Marquise Brown and Xavier Worthy to catch passes, which makes it even more crucial for Pacheco to earn that three-down role.
De’Von Achane, RB, Miami Dolphins
The Case for Achane
I mean, did you watch him last season?
Achane is arguably the most polarizing player in all of fantasy. And admittedly, I am more afraid to not draft him than to draft him. He took the league by storm as a rookie, averaging a legitimate, real life, not video game simulated 7.8 yards per carry. Per the Statshub, Achane ranked second in EPA/ATT (0.41), and a league-best 21.4% of his rush attempts went for 10-plus yards. He averaged an absurd 5.2 second-level yards per rush attempt (first), while ranking fifth in avoided tackle rate (25.2%). Basically, Achane was elite in just about every advanced metric you can think of, as his speed and talent were a perfect fit for Mike McDaniel’s offense in Miami. Despite averaging just about 12 touches per game last year, Achane averaged 17.3 PPR points per game, fifth most among all running backs. While it is highly unlikely Achane gets more than 15-16 touches per game, he certainly is in line for some more work entering his second NFL season. Giving a player with Achane’s talent and speed plenty of room to run is a terrifying concept for opposing defenses. But because of the movement and elite wide receivers in this offense, opposing defenses cannot stack the box against the Dolphins. In fact, just 11.7% of Achane’s carries came against stacked boxes (7-plus defenders), the eighth-lowest rate in the league.
The Case Against Achane
Volume. That’s it.
Given his size, it is highly unlikely we see Achane post many, if any, 20-touch games this season. Again, he averaged just under 12 touches per game last year, losing plenty of work to veteran Raheem Mostert, who has been very good in his own right in this offense. Mostert scored over 20 touchdowns last season, ranking second in the NFL with 12 goal line carries. His 19 carries inside the 5-yard line were also tied for the most in football, while Achane saw just one goal-line carry and four inside the 5-yard line. Of course, Achane is already arguably the best candidate among any running back in the league to score from 20-plus yards out, but we’d love to see more short-yardage usage this season.
The Verdict: Isiah Pacheco
I fully understand the hype surrounding Achane in 2024. And like I said, while I am worried about drafting him, I am more worried that he isn’t on my fantasy team because that kind of upside wins fantasy leagues. But I think Pacheco has league-winning upside, too, especially if he does take over that third down role. Pacheco is guaranteed for more touches, more touchdown opportunities and similar usage in the passing game. And I fully expect Kansas City’s offense to return to being an elite unit this season. Give me Pacheco here.
