2024 Wimbledon Betting Preview
Josh Gross
The Scott Fish Bowl 14 — or #SFB14 on Twitter — has arrived! It’s a massive tournament, so ADP and rankings largely go out the window once drafts go live, but it’s never a bad idea to have general guidelines.
This is the largest, most popular redraft fantasy football contest in the world. Fantasy analysts and fans are grouped up to duke it out over the course of the season, and all proceeds go to charity. Shout out to Scott Fish. Donate to Fantasy Cares here.
Note: This year, the NFL changed the kickoff rule, which will likely result in more returns. SFB14 awards points for return yards, so this is a significant change. At the end of the rankings, we provide some detail on the methodology we used.
SFB14 Rankings: Scott Fish Bowl 2024
1. Josh Allen, QB, BUF
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
4. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
5. Rashid Shaheed, WR, NO
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
7. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
8. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
9. Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
10. C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
11. Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
12. Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
13. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
14. Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
15. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
16. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
17. Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
18. Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
19. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
20. Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
21. Trey McBride, TE, ARI
22. Jordan Love, QB, GB
23. Brock Purdy, QB, SF
24. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
25. Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
26. Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
27. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
28. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
29. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
30. Rachaad White, RB, TB
31. Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
32. Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
33. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
34. Marvin Mims, WR, DEN
35. Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
36. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
37. Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
38. Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
39. Jared Goff, QB, DET
40. Xavier Gipson, WR, NYJ
41. Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
42. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
43. Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
44. Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
45. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
46. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
47. Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
48. Derrick Henry, RB, BAL
49. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
50. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
51. Braxton Berrios, WR, MIA
52. Davante Adams, WR, LV
53. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
54. Kenneth Walker, RB, SEA
55. Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
56. Tank Dell, WR, HOU
57. Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
58. Evan Engram, TE, JAX
59. Chris Olave, WR, NO
60. Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
61. Devin Singletary, RB, NYG
62. Derius Davis, WR, LAC
63. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
64. James Cook, RB, BUF
65. Devon Achane, RB, MIA
66. Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
67. George Kittle, TE, SF
68. Russell Wilson, QB, PIT
69. Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF
70. Drake London, WR, ATL
71. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
72. Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL
73. Jayden Reed, WR, GB
74. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
75. J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN
76. Baker Mayfield, QB, TB
77. Michael Pittman, WR, IND
78. David Montgomery, RB, DET
79. Will Levis, QB, TEN
80. D.J. Moore, WR, CHI
81. Drake Maye, QB, NE
82. DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
83. Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
84. Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
85. Nico Collins, WR, HOU
86. Geno Smith, QB, SEA
87. Mike Evans, WR, TB
88. Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
89. Zamir White, RB, LV
90. D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
91. Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
92. Najee Harris, RB, PIT
93. T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN
94. Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
95. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
96. Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
97. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
98. Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
99. James Conner, RB, ARI
100. David Njoku, TE, CLE
101. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
102. Derek Carr, QB, NO
103. Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
104. George Pickens, WR, PIT
105. Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
106. Rashee Rice, WR, KC
107. Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
108. Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
109. Gus Edwards, RB, LAC
110. Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
111. Bryce Young, QB, CAR
112. Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
113. Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
114. Younghoe Koo, K, ATL
115. Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU
116. Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
117. Deven Thompkins, WR, TB
118. Chase Brown, RB, CIN
119. Zack Moss, RB, CIN
120. Harrison Butker, K, KC
121. Diontae Johnson, WR, CAR
122. Velus Jones, WR, CHI
123. Raheem Blackshear, RB, CAR
124. Bo Nix, QB, DEN
125. Justin Tucker, K, BAL
126. Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
127. Calvin Ridley, WR, TEN
128. Jake Moody, K, SF
129. Brock Bowers, TE, LV
130. Jake Elliott, K, PHI
131. Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
132. Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
133. Marquise Brown, WR, KC
134. Xavier Legette, WR, CAR
135. Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
136. Brandon Aubrey, K, DAL
137. Chris Godwin, WR, TB
138. Evan McPherson, K, CIN
139. Cole Kmet, TE, CHI
140. Josh Downs, WR, IND
141. Rico Dowdle, RB, DAL
142. Ka’imi Fairbairn, K, HOU
143. Hunter Henry, TE, NE
144. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
145. Jason Sanders, K, MIA
146. Tyler Bass, K, BUF
147. Michael Badgley, K, DET
148. Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
149. Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
150. Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
151. Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC
152. Cameron Dicker, K, LAC
153. Jonathon Brooks, RB, CAR
154. Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
155. Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS
156. Blake Grupe, K, NO
157. Jason Myers, K, SEA
158. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
159. Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
160. Christian Watson, WR, GB
161. Greg Zuerlein, K, NYJ
162. Matt Gay, K, IND
163. Anders Carlson, K, GB
164. Luke Musgrave, TE, GB
165. Cairo Santos, K, CHI
166. Chase McLaughlin, K, TB
167. Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
168. Joshua Karty, K, LAR
169. Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
170. Jameson Williams, WR, DET
171. Dustin Hopkins, K, CLE
172. Curtis Samuel, WR, BUF
173. Antonio Gibson, RB, NE
174. Kavontae Turpin, WR, DAL
175. Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL
176. Matt Prater, K, ARI
177. Mike Williams, WR, NYJ
178. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
179. Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, ATL
180. Keon Coleman, WR, BUF
181. Josh Palmer, WR, LAC
182. Cade Otton, TE, TB
183. Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
184. Greg Dortch, WR, ARI
185. Chris Boswell, K, PIT
186. Will Reichard, K, MIN
187. Wil Lutz, K, DEN
188. Ty Chandler, RB, MIN
189. Trayveon Williams, RB, CIN
190. Daniel Carlson, K, LV
191. Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI
192. Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
193. Adam Thielen, WR, CAR
194. Nick Folk, K, TEN
195. Jerry Jeudy, WR, CLE
196. Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR
197. Gabe Davis, WR, JAX
198. Eddy Pineiro, K, CAR
199. DeMario Douglas, WR, NE
200. Isaiah Likely, TE, BAL
201. Brian Thomas, WR, JAX
202. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, NE
203. Dontayvion Wicks, WR, GB
204. Ramiz Ahmed, K, WAS
205. Michael Mayer, TE, LV
206. Tucker Kraft, TE, GB
207. Trey Benson, RB, ARI
208. Devin Duvernay, WR, JAX
209. Pierre Strong, RB, CLE
210. Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN
211. Michael Wilson, WR, ARI
212. Graham Gano, K, NYG
213. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN
214. Gardner Minshew, QB, LV
215. Blake Corum, RB, LAR
216. Elijah Moore, WR, CLE
217. Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ
218. Jerome Ford, RB, CLE
219. Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, NYG
220. Chad Ryland, K, NE
221. Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC
222. Adonai Mitchell, WR, IND
223. Isaiah McKenzie, WR, NYG
224. Taysom Hill, TE, NO
225. Troy Franklin, WR, DEN
226. Demarcus Robinson, WR, LAR
227. Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL
228. Malik Washington, WR, MIA
229. Jonnu Smith, TE, MIA
230. Roman Wilson, WR, PIT
231. J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC
232. Justice Hill, RB, BAL
233. Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
234. Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
235. Jalen Reagor, WR, NE
236. Kendre Miller, RB, NO
237. Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL
238. Darius Slayton, WR, NYG
239. Tyler Boyd, WR, TEN
240. Dylan Laube, RB, LV
241. Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG
242. Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG
243. Cam Little, K, JAC
244. Parris Campbell, WR, PHI
245. Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF
246. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, CAR
247. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, GB
248. Noah Fant, TE, SEA
249. Zay Jones, WR, ARI
250. D’Ernest Johnson, RB, JAX
251. Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, PIT
252. Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX
253. DeeJay Dallas, RB, ARI
254. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, MIA
255. Malachi Corley, WR, NYJ
256. Javon Baker, WR, NE
257. Miles Sanders, RB, CAR
258. Will Shipley, RB, PHI
259. Gerald Everett, TE, CHI
260. Riley Patterson, K, JAC
261. Ben Sinnott, TE, WAS
262. Aidan O’Connell, QB, LV
263. Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE
264. Tyler Scott, WR, CHI
265. Dawson Knox, TE, BUF
266. Jonathan Mingo, WR, CAR
267. Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
268. Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI
269. Justin Fields, QB, PIT
270. Kimani Vidal, RB, LAC
271. Jermaine Burton, WR, CIN
272. Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA
273. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, SEA
274. Craig Reynolds, RB, DET
275. Trey Palmer, WR, TB
276. Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE
277. Alec Pierce, WR, IND
278. Colby Parkinson, TE, LAR
279. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI
280. D’Onta Foreman, RB, CLE
281. Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF
282. Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR
283. Jelani Woods, TE, IND
284. Kalif Raymond, WR, DET
285. Ty Johnson, RB, BUF
286. AJ Dillon, RB, GB
287. Calvin Austin, WR, PIT
288. Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF
289. Mike Gesicki, TE, CIN
290. Zach Ertz, TE, WAS
291. Chris Moore, WR, ARI
292. K.J. Osborn, WR, NE
293. Ray Davis, RB, BUF
294. Boston Scott, RB, LAR
295. Britain Covey, WR, PHI
296. Audric Estime, RB, DEN
297. Charlie Jones, WR, CIN
298. Parker Washington, WR, JAX
299. Tre Tucker, WR, LV
300. Noah Gray, TE, KC
SFB14 Return Yards Scoring
The NFL has adopted an XFL-like kickoff policy on a trial basis in 2024, and the Scott Fish Bowl 14 awards 0.2 fantasy points per return yard.
That’s why Rashid Shaheed ranks fifth overall (!). But a few important notes on the methodology (and notes of caution):
- Last year, 22% of kickoffs were returned. My conservative estimates are that 50% will be returned this year
- My primary source is this NFL operations page, which says: “special teams coaches estimate that between 50–60% of kickoffs will be returned”
- I say it’s conservative because the XFL had a 97% kickoff return rate using very similar rules
- If the NFL comes remotely close to a 97% return rate, kickoff return specialists will completely break SFB14. I ran the numbers at 50%, 60%, 70%, etc., and once you reach the higher levels, fourth-string running backs become top-30 SFB14 players
- More importantly: We don’t know who will be returning kickoffs yet! We know players like Shaheed and Marvin Mims are good bets, but the new rules may shake everything up.
- Will we see elite athletes like Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill return more? Or running backs like Rachaad White and Tony Pollard?
- In my rankings, I went through every player that I thought had a reasonable chance to get a bump in return yards and input those data points, but again, these are all conservative
It’s probably not worth chasing return specialists on draft day outside of the few who are very, very good bets to return a lot of kicks. But if they are good open-field runners, using the kickoff potential as a tiebreaker when you’re drafting is probably a good idea.
The waiver wire runs after the first few weeks are going to be extremely important. You do not want to sleep on the early waivers this year. There will be plenty of players that do not get drafted that end up being weekly starters if they secure the kick return role for their team.
Long story short: This twist is going to shake things up. Kudos, Scott Fish!
A Note on Value: Best Draft Positions for SFB14
Value in all fantasy leagues, including SFB14, is not linear. It’s better described by an exponential model, which makes the third-round reversal a big twist from the norm — but it actually makes things more fair.
Here is the expected value for each draft position:
| SFB14 Draft Slot | Expected Value Index |
| 1.01 | +2.50% |
| 1.02 | +2.55% |
| 1.03 | +1.99% |
| 1.04 | +2.19% |
| 1.05 | -0.74% |
| 1.06 | -1.65% |
| 1.07 | -1.55% |
| 1.08 | -1.14% |
| 1.09 | -0.33% |
| 1.1 | -0.03% |
| 1.11 | -1.95% |
| 1.12 | -1.85% |
These numbers are all so close to each other (+/- 2% from expected) that the 3RR neutralizes draft slot as an inherent advantage.
In other words: No, you aren’t allowed to complain about your draft position or 3RR. Everyone has an equal chance to end up with a good team.
(For context, a standard snake draft sees expected value range from +5% to -8%.)
More Rankings
Check out our fantasy football rankings for all league types. We also have Jeff Ratcliffe’s PPR rankings and best ball rankings.
