Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
The Scott Fish Bowl 14 — or #SFB14 on Twitter — has arrived! It’s a massive tournament, so ADP and rankings largely go out the window once drafts go live, but it’s never a bad idea to have general guidelines.
This is the largest, most popular redraft fantasy football contest in the world. Fantasy analysts and fans are grouped up to duke it out over the course of the season, and all proceeds go to charity. Shout out to Scott Fish. Donate to Fantasy Cares here.
Note: This year, the NFL changed the kickoff rule, which will likely result in more returns. SFB14 awards points for return yards, so this is a significant change. At the end of the rankings, we provide some detail on the methodology we used.
SFB14 Rankings: Scott Fish Bowl 2024
1. Josh Allen, QB, BUF
2. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
3. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
4. Jalen Hurts, QB, PHI
5. Rashid Shaheed, WR, NO
6. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
7. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
8. Patrick Mahomes, QB, KC
9. Anthony Richardson, QB, IND
10. C.J. Stroud, QB, HOU
11. Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
12. Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
13. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
14. Joe Burrow, QB, CIN
15. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
16. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
17. Kyler Murray, QB, ARI
18. Dak Prescott, QB, DAL
19. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
20. Tyjae Spears, RB, TEN
21. Trey McBride, TE, ARI
22. Jordan Love, QB, GB
23. Brock Purdy, QB, SF
24. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
25. Justin Herbert, QB, LAC
26. Jayden Daniels, QB, WAS
27. Ja’Marr Chase, WR, CIN
28. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
29. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
30. Rachaad White, RB, TB
31. Trevor Lawrence, QB, JAX
32. Caleb Williams, QB, CHI
33. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
34. Marvin Mims, WR, DEN
35. Deshaun Watson, QB, CLE
36. Tua Tagovailoa, QB, MIA
37. Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
38. Kirk Cousins, QB, ATL
39. Jared Goff, QB, DET
40. Xavier Gipson, WR, NYJ
41. Travis Etienne, RB, JAX
42. Mark Andrews, TE, BAL
43. Matthew Stafford, QB, LAR
44. Aaron Rodgers, QB, NYJ
45. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
46. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
47. Deebo Samuel, WR, SF
48. Derrick Henry, RB, BAL
49. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
50. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
51. Braxton Berrios, WR, MIA
52. Davante Adams, WR, LV
53. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
54. Kenneth Walker, RB, SEA
55. Joe Mixon, RB, HOU
56. Tank Dell, WR, HOU
57. Dalton Kincaid, TE, BUF
58. Evan Engram, TE, JAX
59. Chris Olave, WR, NO
60. Kyle Pitts, TE, ATL
61. Devin Singletary, RB, NYG
62. Derius Davis, WR, LAC
63. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
64. James Cook, RB, BUF
65. Devon Achane, RB, MIA
66. Aaron Jones, RB, MIN
67. George Kittle, TE, SF
68. Russell Wilson, QB, PIT
69. Khalil Shakir, WR, BUF
70. Drake London, WR, ATL
71. Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, NE
72. Jake Ferguson, TE, DAL
73. Jayden Reed, WR, GB
74. Alvin Kamara, RB, NO
75. J.J. McCarthy, QB, MIN
76. Baker Mayfield, QB, TB
77. Michael Pittman, WR, IND
78. David Montgomery, RB, DET
79. Will Levis, QB, TEN
80. D.J. Moore, WR, CHI
81. Drake Maye, QB, NE
82. DeVonta Smith, WR, PHI
83. Daniel Jones, QB, NYG
84. Dallas Goedert, TE, PHI
85. Nico Collins, WR, HOU
86. Geno Smith, QB, SEA
87. Mike Evans, WR, TB
88. Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
89. Zamir White, RB, LV
90. D’Andre Swift, RB, CHI
91. Stefon Diggs, WR, HOU
92. Najee Harris, RB, PIT
93. T.J. Hockenson, TE, MIN
94. Malik Nabers, WR, NYG
95. DK Metcalf, WR, SEA
96. Zay Flowers, WR, BAL
97. Nick Chubb, RB, CLE
98. Amari Cooper, WR, CLE
99. James Conner, RB, ARI
100. David Njoku, TE, CLE
101. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
102. Derek Carr, QB, NO
103. Keenan Allen, WR, CHI
104. George Pickens, WR, PIT
105. Tony Pollard, RB, TEN
106. Rashee Rice, WR, KC
107. Xavier Worthy, WR, KC
108. Tee Higgins, WR, CIN
109. Gus Edwards, RB, LAC
110. Christian Kirk, WR, JAX
111. Bryce Young, QB, CAR
112. Raheem Mostert, RB, MIA
113. Terry McLaurin, WR, WAS
114. Younghoe Koo, K, ATL
115. Dalton Schultz, TE, HOU
116. Javonte Williams, RB, DEN
117. Chase Brown, RB, CIN
118. Zack Moss, RB, CIN
119. Harrison Butker, K, KC
120. Diontae Johnson, WR, CAR
121. Velus Jones, WR, CHI
122. Raheem Blackshear, RB, CAR
123. Bo Nix, QB, DEN
124. Justin Tucker, K, BAL
125. Brian Robinson, RB, WAS
126. Calvin Ridley, WR, TEN
127. Jake Moody, K, SF
128. Brock Bowers, TE, LV
129. Jake Elliott, K, PHI
130. Zach Charbonnet, RB, SEA
131. Jaylen Warren, RB, PIT
132. Marquise Brown, WR, KC
133. Xavier Legette, WR, CAR
134. Jakobi Meyers, WR, LV
135. Brandon Aubrey, K, DAL
136. Chris Godwin, WR, TB
137. Evan McPherson, K, CIN
138. Cole Kmet, TE, CHI
139. Josh Downs, WR, IND
140. Rico Dowdle, RB, DAL
141. Ka’imi Fairbairn, K, HOU
142. Hunter Henry, TE, NE
143. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, TEN
144. Jason Sanders, K, MIA
145. Tyler Bass, K, BUF
146. Michael Badgley, K, DET
147. Pat Freiermuth, TE, PIT
148. Courtland Sutton, WR, DEN
149. Dameon Pierce, RB, HOU
150. Ladd McConkey, WR, LAC
151. Cameron Dicker, K, LAC
152. Jonathon Brooks, RB, CAR
153. Jordan Addison, WR, MIN
154. Austin Ekeler, RB, WAS
155. Blake Grupe, K, NO
156. Jason Myers, K, SEA
157. Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, SEA
158. Tyler Lockett, WR, SEA
159. Christian Watson, WR, GB
160. Greg Zuerlein, K, NYJ
161. Matt Gay, K, IND
162. Anders Carlson, K, GB
163. Luke Musgrave, TE, GB
164. Cairo Santos, K, CHI
165. Chase McLaughlin, K, TB
166. Rome Odunze, WR, CHI
167. Joshua Karty, K, LAR
168. Romeo Doubs, WR, GB
169. Jameson Williams, WR, DET
170. Dustin Hopkins, K, CLE
171. Curtis Samuel, WR, BUF
172. Antonio Gibson, RB, NE
173. Kavontae Turpin, WR, DAL
174. Brandin Cooks, WR, DAL
175. Matt Prater, K, ARI
176. Mike Williams, WR, NYJ
177. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, DAL
178. Ray-Ray McCloud, WR, ATL
179. Keon Coleman, WR, BUF
180. Josh Palmer, WR, LAC
181. Cade Otton, TE, TB
182. Jahan Dotson, WR, WAS
183. Greg Dortch, WR, ARI
184. Chris Boswell, K, PIT
185. Will Reichard, K, MIN
186. Wil Lutz, K, DEN
187. Ty Chandler, RB, MIN
188. Trayveon Williams, RB, CIN
189. Daniel Carlson, K, LV
190. Khalil Herbert, RB, CHI
191. Juwan Johnson, TE, NO
192. Adam Thielen, WR, CAR
193. Nick Folk, K, TEN
194. Jerry Jeudy, WR, CLE
195. Chuba Hubbard, RB, CAR
196. Gabe Davis, WR, JAX
197. Eddy Pineiro, K, CAR
198. DeMario Douglas, WR, NE
199. Isaiah Likely, TE, BAL
200. Brian Thomas, WR, JAX
201. Ja’Lynn Polk, WR, NE
202. Dontayvion Wicks, WR, GB
203. Ramiz Ahmed, K, WAS
204. Michael Mayer, TE, LV
205. Tucker Kraft, TE, GB
206. Trey Benson, RB, ARI
207. Devin Duvernay, WR, JAX
208. Pierre Strong, RB, CLE
209. Jaleel McLaughlin, RB, DEN
210. Michael Wilson, WR, ARI
211. Graham Gano, K, NYG
212. Chigoziem Okonkwo, TE, TEN
213. Gardner Minshew, QB, LV
214. Blake Corum, RB, LAR
215. Elijah Moore, WR, CLE
216. Tyler Conklin, TE, NYJ
217. Jerome Ford, RB, CLE
218. Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, NYG
219. Chad Ryland, K, NE
220. Quentin Johnston, WR, LAC
221. Adonai Mitchell, WR, IND
222. Isaiah McKenzie, WR, NYG
223. Bucky Irving, RB, TB
224. Taysom Hill, TE, NO
225. Troy Franklin, WR, DEN
226. Demarcus Robinson, WR, LAR
227. Tyler Allgeier, RB, ATL
228. Malik Washington, WR, MIA
229. Jonnu Smith, TE, MIA
230. Roman Wilson, WR, PIT
231. J.K. Dobbins, RB, LAC
232. Justice Hill, RB, BAL
233. Greg Dulcich, TE, DEN
234. Rashod Bateman, WR, BAL
235. Jalen Reagor, WR, NE
236. Kendre Miller, RB, NO
237. Darnell Mooney, WR, ATL
238. Darius Slayton, WR, NYG
239. Tyler Boyd, WR, TEN
240. Dylan Laube, RB, LV
241. Tyrone Tracy Jr., RB, NYG
242. Jalin Hyatt, WR, NYG
243. Cam Little, K, JAC
244. Parris Campbell, WR, PHI
245. Ricky Pearsall, WR, SF
246. Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, CAR
247. MarShawn Lloyd, RB, GB
248. Noah Fant, TE, SEA
249. Zay Jones, WR, ARI
250. D’Ernest Johnson, RB, JAX
251. Cordarrelle Patterson, RB, PIT
252. Tank Bigsby, RB, JAX
253. DeeJay Dallas, RB, ARI
254. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, MIA
255. Malachi Corley, WR, NYJ
256. Javon Baker, WR, NE
257. Miles Sanders, RB, CAR
258. Will Shipley, RB, PHI
259. Gerald Everett, TE, CHI
260. Riley Patterson, K, JAC
261. Ben Sinnott, TE, WAS
262. Aidan O’Connell, QB, LV
263. Kendrick Bourne, WR, NE
264. Tyler Scott, WR, CHI
265. Dawson Knox, TE, BUF
266. Jonathan Mingo, WR, CAR
267. Treylon Burks, WR, TEN
268. Roschon Johnson, RB, CHI
269. Justin Fields, QB, PIT
270. Kimani Vidal, RB, LAC
271. Jermaine Burton, WR, CIN
272. Jaylen Wright, RB, MIA
273. Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, SEA
274. Craig Reynolds, RB, DET
275. Trey Palmer, WR, TB
276. Cedric Tillman, WR, CLE
277. Alec Pierce, WR, IND
278. Colby Parkinson, TE, LAR
279. Kenneth Gainwell, RB, PHI
280. D’Onta Foreman, RB, CLE
281. Elijah Mitchell, RB, SF
282. Tyler Higbee, TE, LAR
283. Jelani Woods, TE, IND
284. Kalif Raymond, WR, DET
285. Ty Johnson, RB, BUF
286. AJ Dillon, RB, GB
287. Calvin Austin, WR, PIT
288. Isaac Guerendo, RB, SF
289. Mike Gesicki, TE, CIN
290. Zach Ertz, TE, WAS
291. Chris Moore, WR, ARI
292. K.J. Osborn, WR, NE
293. Ray Davis, RB, BUF
294. Boston Scott, RB, LAR
295. Britain Covey, WR, PHI
296. Audric Estime, RB, DEN
297. Charlie Jones, WR, CIN
298. Parker Washington, WR, JAX
299. Tre Tucker, WR, LV
300. Noah Gray, TE, KC
SFB14 Return Yards Scoring
The NFL has adopted an XFL-like kickoff policy on a trial basis in 2024, and the Scott Fish Bowl 14 awards 0.2 fantasy points per return yard.
That’s why Rashid Shaheed ranks fifth overall (!). But a few important notes on the methodology (and notes of caution):
- Last year, 22% of kickoffs were returned. My conservative estimates are that 50% will be returned this year
- My primary source is this NFL operations page, which says: “special teams coaches estimate that between 50–60% of kickoffs will be returned”
- I say it’s conservative because the XFL had a 97% kickoff return rate using very similar rules
- If the NFL comes remotely close to a 97% return rate, kickoff return specialists will completely break SFB14. I ran the numbers at 50%, 60%, 70%, etc., and once you reach the higher levels, fourth-string running backs become top-30 SFB14 players
- More importantly: We don’t know who will be returning kickoffs yet! We know players like Shaheed and Marvin Mims are good bets, but the new rules may shake everything up.
- Will we see elite athletes like Deebo Samuel and Tyreek Hill return more? Or running backs like Rachaad White and Tony Pollard?
- In my rankings, I went through every player that I thought had a reasonable chance to get a bump in return yards and input those data points, but again, these are all conservative
It’s probably not worth chasing return specialists on draft day outside of the few who are very, very good bets to return a lot of kicks. But if they are good open-field runners, using the kickoff potential as a tiebreaker when you’re drafting is probably a good idea.
The waiver wire runs after the first few weeks are going to be extremely important. You do not want to sleep on the early waivers this year. There will be plenty of players that do not get drafted that end up being weekly starters if they secure the kick return role for their team.
Long story short: This twist is going to shake things up. Kudos, Scott Fish!
A Note on Value: Best Draft Positions for SFB14
Value in all fantasy leagues, including SFB14, is not linear. It’s better described by an exponential model, which makes the third-round reversal a big twist from the norm — but it actually makes things more fair.
Here is the expected value for each draft position:
| SFB14 Draft Slot | Expected Value Index |
| 1.01 | +2.50% |
| 1.02 | +2.55% |
| 1.03 | +1.99% |
| 1.04 | +2.19% |
| 1.05 | -0.74% |
| 1.06 | -1.65% |
| 1.07 | -1.55% |
| 1.08 | -1.14% |
| 1.09 | -0.33% |
| 1.1 | -0.03% |
| 1.11 | -1.95% |
| 1.12 | -1.85% |
These numbers are all so close to each other (+/- 2% from expected) that the 3RR neutralizes draft slot as an inherent advantage.
In other words: No, you aren’t allowed to complain about your draft position or 3RR. Everyone has an equal chance to end up with a good team.
(For context, a standard snake draft sees expected value range from +5% to -8%.)
More Rankings
Check out our fantasy football rankings for all league types. We also have Jeff Ratcliffe’s PPR rankings and best ball rankings.
