Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
North Dakota State wide receiver Christian Watson came into Senior Bowl week as a relative unknown to most. After a good showing in Mobile and being awarded the National Team WR of the Week award, the buzz on Watson has gotten borderline out of control.
The crazy part is, Watson wasn’t originally included on the Senior Bowl roster and was a late addition, just days before the event. Long story short, I am here to answer the question asked most by the people who didn’t have the opportunity to watch him in practice all week, “Is the hype on Watson legit?” The answer to that question is, yes, and then some. Watson is absolutely the real deal.
If you read my Senior Bowl preview, I talked about how to reasonably get something out of the week while cautioning against overreactions, especially in cases in which what we see this week contradicts what has been put on film the past four years. In that article, I stressed the importance of looking for bits of information that add to the story of each player or emphasize a certain part of the existing story. What we can’t do is use a few good or bad practices to rewrite the story outright. Unfortunately, I have been on the bad end of that (Denzel Mims), but I am determined not to fall into that trap again. I used the example of Terry McLaurin in my preview article as a good example of how to apply what we learn from the week.
Back to Watson. It is without question that, entering the practice week, the single biggest question looming over Watson was his level of competition in college. That made Senior Bowl week a great opportunity for him to showcase his skills and help paint a clearer picture of who he is as a player against the top senior defensive backs in the country. Obviously, given the nature of our discussion here, he did that very well. While I was certainly exposed to Watson over the years, I had not done a formal deep dive into his tape. Upon returning home from Mobile, I made it a priority to dive in with an attempt to either confirm or deny the guy we saw in Mobile was in fact who he is. Check out my takeaway after my deep dive below.
Where I See Christian Watson Fitting into this Draft Class
After fully evaluating Watson and putting him through my numeric scoring system, I view Watson as a WR prospect with all the tools to become a legit No. 1 option in the NFL and is worthy of a top-50 pick. In my system he scored similarly to other top names in the class and is in the mix as a top 5-6 wide receiver in this draft. Watson is best fit as a scheme-transcendent, traditional X receiver with a lot of versatility baked into the cake already. Ultimately his final landing spot could hinge on the personal preference or need of teams drafting in that range. It’s also worth noting that Watson being a fifth-year senior may be something that some teams hold against him.
Christian Watson Skill Summary
Prototype size with extraordinary athletic ability: Watson has the burst and top-end speed to stack opposing DBs at the line and then comfortably generate separation at his breaks or late in the route. He also has the leaping ability and strength to be an asset on contested catches when space isn’t necessarily available, specifically down in the red area. Good contact balance and flexibility makes him an asset after the catch as well.
Being a deep threat requires more skills than just being fast, and Watson has them: On top of his legit deep speed, Watson has the body control and ball tracking skills to finish at a very high rate. Watson’s ability to make adjustments to the ball mid-flight is top notch, often looking like an MLB center fielder tracking down a deep line drive. He also can contort his body mid-air, even while absorbing contact to come down with contested balls or throws in heavy traffic. This combined with a unique understanding of body positioning lends to him being an asset on back shoulder throws against tight man coverage or between the corner and safety against cover-2 looks.
Developed skills as a route runner: One of the things that makes Watson so hard to defend is the variety of ways he can win in his routes. We already addressed his size and speed, which help him quickly erode opposing defenders’ cushions, but he also has good success vs press with a developed release package. With his releases he displays quick feet (especially for his size), violent hands, and good shoulder dip. He mostly keeps his chest clean and shows urgency getting across the defender’s face after his release set up.
Once he gets to the top of his route, Watson shows incredible flexibility in his hips and ankles allowing him to drop his weight, quickly change directions and explode out of his breaks. For a guy his size, the ease and fluidity in which he moves is a sight to behold. Watson can generate separation at all levels of the field.
Watson can be featured on schemed throws or gadget plays: One of the most surprising things upon diving into Watson’s film was the way he was used as a gadget player. From end arounds, reverses, backfield handoffs, or running routes out of the backfield, North Dakota State sought out getting him touches this way and he was very successful doing so. This type of versatility is what helps sell me on Watson developing into a true No. 1 in the NFL.
