Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, New England Patriots
Rhamondre Stevenson got off to a slow start during his rookie season, but once he became more acclimated with the offense, he burst onto the scene, becoming one of the most underrated running backs in the NFL. He finished the season with 606 rushing yards and five touchdowns on 133 attempts, and during the second half of the season, Stevenson began to emerge as the 1B in New England’s backfield.
What Went Right
With his size (5’11”, 231 pounds), Stevenson has the ability to make it extremely difficult for opposing defenders to make tackles. And the numbers back that up. In fact, Stevenson broke a tackle every 8.3 rushing attempts, which was the second-highest rate among all running backs, behind only fellow sophomore Javonte Williams. And among running backs with at least 75 carries last season, Stevenson ranked seventh in yards after contact per attempt (3.35). He forced 31 missed tackles on just 133 rushing attempts, the 21st-most in football, but Stevenson saw the fewest carries among players inside the top-20. Twenty of his 133 carries went for at least 10 yards (15%), and he also sported the sixth-highest elusive rating on receptions. Stevenson’s ability to break tackles and New England’s skill on the offensive line is a very nice combination. In 2021, the Patriots generated 1.95 yards before contact per rush, good for the third-highest mark in the NFL. Stevenson also played in one of the run-heaviest offenses in football, as New England posted the highest neutral-script run rate in the league last season (50.3%). His role increased as the season went on, as Stevenson averaged nearly 13 carries and 1.56 targets per game from Week 8 on. Playing on a team that runs the football as often as New England, he should get plenty of work alongside Damien Harris.
What Went Wrong
Stevenson’s rookie season got off to a slow start. During Weeks 1-4, the rookie logged just five total offensive snaps, as some issues in pass-protection kept him out of the lineup until Week 5. An injury to pass-catching running back James White also accelerated Stevenson’s playing time going forward. He still wasn’t consistently used in the passing game, despite showing signs he could be productive in that role. Stevenson actually was second in all of college football back in 2020 in yards per route run (2.32), but New England used Brandon Bolden as the third-down/two-minute drill running back. Meanwhile, Harris was still the clear goal-line back, as his 14 carries from inside the five-yard line were the third most in all of football.
Prognosis Entering 2022
Entering his sophomore season, Stevenson isn’t likely to emerge as New England’s clear lead back. However, after an impressive rookie campaign, I do believe the touches could be split almost evenly between Harris and Stevenson. He is one of my favorite running backs to target in a Zero-RB build, because not only will Stevenson have some standalone value, but if Harris is forced to miss any time, Stevenson would dominate the carries in an offense that will run the football as much as any team in the league. There have also been some reports that Stevenson’s role in the passing game could be increased in year two, especially if James White (hip) isn’t fully healthy to start the season. Remember, Brandon Bolden is now in Las Vegas with the Raiders, and while the Patriots did add Pierre Strong and Kevin Harris this offseason, I’d expect Stevenson to get the first crack at a third-down role.
Dynasty Outlook
2022 is the final season of Damien Harris’ contract, and given New England’s history of using multiple running backs, it’s very possible the Patriots let him enter free agency and begin the 2023 campaign with Stevenson as the team’s lead back. Stevenson, however, will be 25 years old in February and will be a free agent after the 2024 season. And while it remains to be seen if the Patriots will bring back Harris next year, or even Stevenson the following year, there’s a legitimate path to a lead role in 2023 while also being plenty involved in 2022.
