NBA Prop of the Day
Jake Silverman
June is underway, and we’re getting closer and closer to the 2023 regular season. Best ball leagues have been drafting for months now, and they are getting more popular now that we understand landing spots for veteran free agents and rookies.
Every year, rookie fever emerges, and the previous class gets pushed aside by the shiny new NFL toys. This usually results in a rookie surge of ADP, which opens up pockets of value, especially with players from the previous class who may not be as established as some long-time veterans in the league. This happens even though most fantasy analysts (and players) understand the largest leap occurs from year 1 to year 2.
Throughout the summer, FTN will be releasing second-year scouting reports to keep these players fresh in fantasy managers’ minds. The series shifts today to Malik Willis, the second-year quarterback with the Tennessee Titans. This article is a breakdown of Willis’ first season and what fantasy managers can expect from him going forward in 2023 and beyond.
Malik Willis, QB, Tennessee Titans
Malik Willis began his college career at Auburn before transferring to Liberty, where he started for two seasons and racked up 74 total touchdowns. One of the knocks on Willis coming out of college was obviously the level of competition he played against, but the fact that he was a dual-threat prospect – over 1,800 rushing yards and 27 rushing touchdowns in two seasons – resulted in some palpable buzz. Despite rumors of Willis being drafted in the first round, he was ultimately selected in the third by the Tennessee Titans.
In his rookie year, the Liberty QB backed up Ryan Tannehill but got a few spot starts due to injury. Unfortunately for him and the Titans, there wasn’t much to write home about in any of those performances. Still, he’s had a full offseason to work on his craft and most people assumed he’d be a bit of a project coming into the league. Let’s take a deeper look at Malik Willis’ rookie season and his outlook for 2023 and beyond.
What Went Wrong
Entering the year, it felt like a possibility that Malik Willis would overtake Ryan Tannehill at some point as the starting quarterback in Nashville. Tannehill was never benched, but he did get banged up throughout the season which resulted in three starts for the rookie, during which he completed 25 total passes. Aside from the fact that the gameplan included more running and less throwing to accommodate him, Willis’ performances were uninspiring to say the least. He completed just 50% of his passes, didn’t throw a touchdown and graded out as a worse passer than Zach Wilson. He also turned the ball over four times in those three starts.
Without belaboring the point too much, it wasn’t a good rookie season for Willis, especially as a passer. Still, that’s something he can develop considering he now has the benefit of NFL coaching and practice.
What Went Right
While Willis failed to impress during his few starts and additional appearances in mop-up duty, he did flash some athleticism and intuitive rushing ability that scouts figured he had after his college career. He eclipsed 40 rushing yards in two of his three starts and showed an ability to avoid huge losses and sacks with his legs. His decision-making needs to improve, but the physical ability is there to some extent.
Other than using his legs out of necessity though, Willis’ only positive was that he wasn’t completely afraid to throw the ball downfield. His 8.1-yard aDOT ranked top-25 out of almost 60 qualified quarterbacks, and he did throw a handful of deep passes in his starts, one of which was dropped. It’s not much, but sometimes backups and young quarterbacks practically refuse to throw down the field and hold back the offense as a result. This at least provides Willis with an opportunity to make big plays through the air, even if he’s not consistent or skilled enough yet.
Prognosis Entering 2023
With Ryan Tannehill still holding the starting job and rookie Will Levis holding second-round draft capital to Willis’ third, 2023 looks bleak. It would be very surprising if he saw any meaningful snaps this season with the Titans. He’d likely need one of those aforementioned QBs to get hurt and the other to either get hurt or play extremely bad football. Even if he did get on the field, he shouldn’t be considered an option in redraft leagues until he proves he can effectively lead an NFL offense.
Dynasty Outlook
Despite the stark outlook for the upcoming season, some may be holding out hope for Willis in dynasty. Personally, I wouldn’t. His rushing potential could make him interesting if he gets released or traded to a team that is willing to give him a shot, but those odds seem slim. Plus, he can certainly develop as a passer, but his rookie season was so brutal that the Titans, who see him in practice every day, felt the need to draft another quarterback in the early second round. Because of that, don’t even hold onto Willis in dynasty leagues.
