Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Kadarius Toney, WR, New York Giants
At Florida, Kadarius Toney played mostly a utility role until his breakout senior season in which he caught 70 balls, racked up over 1,100 total yards and scored 11 total touchdowns. His explosiveness and quick-twitch ability got him drafted 20th overall by the New York Giants.
In his rookie year, Toney taunted fantasy managers. He provided a tantalizing mix of electricity, stardom and injury-driven disappearance. The lows were frustrating, but the highs were intoxicating. In year two, we’ll see if Toney can stay healthy and if the Giants can use him to awaken an offense that’s been dormant for years.
What Went Right
When Toney was on the field and at full strength, he was the Giants’ best receiver and one of the most explosive players in the NFL. For starters, he ranked 10th in the league in targets per route run at 25%, meaning when he was out there, he was getting open at a rate similar to Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs.
He also led all Giants pass-catchers in target share (20%) when he played more than 30% of snaps. His targets are typically close to the line of scrimmage, which deters some fantasy managers who are looking for deep-ball receivers with the potential to rip off 50 yards in an instant. But Toney still has that ability.
As opposed to doing it via air yards and deep balls, he does it with the rock in his hands. In his rookie season, Toney ranked second among receivers in missed tackles forced per reception and graded out as the second-most elusive wide receiver in the NFL, according to FTN’s advanced stats.
So if Toney is so explosive, why wasn’t he better for fantasy?
What Went Wrong
Simply put, Toney couldn’t stay on the field. He appeared in only 10 games and played more than 30% of snaps in just seven of them, so nagging injuries and a boom-or-bust tendency made for an inconsistent first season. Throw in the fact that he didn’t score once, and you’ve got a recipe for torture for fantasy managers hoping he’d be their secret weapon and key to a playoff run.
Prognosis Entering 2022
It obviously wasn’t all smooth sailing for Toney in year one, but his flashes of extreme upside should make year two fun to watch. Metrics like target share, yards per route run and elusiveness suggest Toney could be in for a big breakout this season. Not a lot of wide receivers even have the ability to put up numbers like the 10-catch, 189-yard stat line that he put up in his fifth-career game.
There are two main things that could hold him back from a true breakout season, though. That’s health and Daniel Jones. Toney is currently being drafted in the ballpark of WR47. If you guaranteed me he’d play at least 14-15 full games, I’d bet my house he finishes higher than WR47. How high he could finish is less clear, however, thanks to the Giants’ QB situation and ambiguous wide receiver room.
I’ve expressed my distrust in Jones before, but Toney is the type of receiver who makes life a lot easier on quarterbacks. Jones doesn’t have to improve his deep-ball accuracy or even develop a particularly strong chemistry with the second-year wideout. Toney’s low average depth of target and impressive YAC numbers show that he just needs the ball, wherever and whenever he can get it.
If you’re worried about New York’s crowded receiver room, don’t be. Toney is young, explosive and has recent, significant draft capital. He’ll be on the field and getting targets. Health considered, Toney’s ceiling is extremely high in 2022, and he’s better than a dart throw in the ninth or 10th round of drafts.
