NHL Best Bets for Tuesday (11/19)
Kenneth Le
Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.
Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?
Javonte Williams, RB, Denver Broncos
Javonte Williams was drafted with the 35th pick in the 2021 NFL Draft. The most surprising part of this pick was that the Broncos traded pick 40 along with their fourth-round pick to move up and select the North Carolina running back. This physical, yet agile runner was added to a depth chart that included former first-rounder Melvin Gordon already – making it likely he was in a split role in year one. Some people believed that he could take over a larger role in a short time though, in large part due to multiple stellar scouting reports. One of these was NFL.com. In their Combine report, we saw that he was a strong back who could break a significant amount of tackles due to his strong contact balance. He also showed the ability to pick up the blitz and contribute in the passing game. On the flip side, he struggled to show that breakaway gear that is highly coveted from running backs, and he struggled with ball security at times.
As far as his fantasy football stock, we saw it drop after the 2021 draft due to a perceived poor landing spot. This helped him become one of the best values in rookie drafts in 2021. On average, he was being selected as the fifth player off the board and the RB2 of the class. When it came to redraft leagues, he slipped even further down draft boards to the sixth round as the 64th overall player selected.
What Went Right
Year one started slow for Williams like many expected. As a tandem back, he produced only one 100-plus yard game and one rushing touchdown in the first 10 weeks of the season. On the flip side, he showed a lot of promise, producing 35 missed tackles, 16 runs of 10-plus yards and 378 yards after contact during this span. This was only the tip of the iceberg, as after the Week 11 bye, Williams produced three consecutive weeks of 20-plus fantasy points.
Williams would go on to finish the season with 903 rushing yards and 4 touchdowns on 203 carries – along with 43 receptions for 316 yards and three touchdowns. This led to him finishing as RB17 finish in PPR scoring with 204.9 points. Within this, he forced 63 missed tackles while producing 694 yards after contact and 25 10-plus yard runs – nine of which went for over 15 yards. It left fantasy owners begging for more by the end of the season.
What Went Wrong
When we take a look back at Williams’ 2021 season, it’s hard to point out many things that went wrong for him, aside from his usage. Whether this was a coach’s decision or due to the fact he couldn’t outplay Gordon, we will never know. Things got more complicated entering 2022, as Gordon’s contract was up, meaning there was an opportunity to shut the door on his return. This was not the case though. After a long delay, Gordon was brought back to Denver for at least one more year. Now, there’s doubt in the minds of fantasy managers as to whether Williams will ever get the lead role managers hoped for.
Prognosis Entering 2022
To build on the paragraph above, Williams’ 2022 season will likely look very similar to 2021, as he once again will be splitting carries with Gordon. This is not the best news, considering last season Gordon showed great effectiveness when called upon. He produced 918 yards and eight touchdowns on 203 carries. As long as Gordon can keep up the production he showed last season, it’s likely he continues to be relevant for a significant portion of the season. On top of this, we have seen new head coach Nathaniel Hackett use a two-back system in many of his offenses, most recently in Green Bay. This will likely create quite a headache for Williams and Gordon managers, as they try to figure out whose week it will be.
As far as Williams’ dynasty outlook goes, it would be hard to get any better. As possibly the most efficient rookie running back last season, he has proven that the talent and production will come. It leaves us with only one question: When? The answer is unclear at the moment, but Gordon was only brought back on a one-year deal, meaning it could be as early as next season. Once he is given the workhorse role, it’s likely we see consecutive seasons of top-12 PPR scoring finishes from Williams.
