Second-Year Scouting Report: Amon-Ra St. Brown

Rookies get all the attention. They’re the flashy new piece that could be anything. And then a class of rookies comes through and they’re old news, replaced by the next flashy, new thing. But last year’s rookies aren’t gone, and in many cases, they’re going to be even better than the exciting new pieces that are just showing up.

Of course, sometimes they won’t be, and that matters too. So as we head toward training camp, preseason, and then the start of the 2022 NFL season, we’re taking a look at last year’s rookie class. What did we think about last year’s rookie class? What worked? What didn’t? And what’s the prognosis for them going forward?

Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions

Every year during the NFL Draft a player falls to the later rounds, puzzling both football fans and analysts everywhere. For me last year, that player was Detroit wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, who was drafted in the fourth round. One of my top wideouts in the class, St. Brown demonstrated the ability to run every route in the book during his time at USC but fell in the draft likely due to his lack of top-end speed and explosiveness. However, St. Brown showcased the ability to get open and when the ball was in the air, he demonstrated terrific body control. After a slow start to his rookie campaign, St. Brown emerged as one of the most productive receivers in all of football down the stretch.

What Went Right

St. Brown’s rookie season started off a bit slow but down the stretch, not only did he emerge as Detroit’s clear top receiver, but he was also one of the most productive wideouts in the NFL. In fact, in Weeks 13-18, St. Brown averaged 11.17 targets, 8.5 receptions, 93.3 receiving yards and 25.8 PPR points per game. Only Cooper Kupp scored more fantasy points during that span. Sure, the Lions were missing T.J. Hockenson and D’Andre Swift for most of those games, but regardless, putting up that type of production as a rookie usually means a player is legit. He was the focal point of Detroit’s offense to end the season, as we also started to see Dan Campbell manufacture touches for the rookie. During the first eight weeks of last season, Jared Goff threw a screen pass on 9.4% of his dropbacks. But after Campbell started calling plays, that number climbed to nearly 11%,, and backup quarterback Tim Boyle actually ranked second among all qualified signal callers with a 14.7% dropback rate off screens (Weeks 10-18). Campbell did a pretty good job of scheming his top players’ touches on offense, especially during St. Brown’s dominant play down the stretch. St. Brown would often line up in the backfield during the weeks Swift and Hockenson were sidelined, giving Detroit’s top receiver more free releases and easier paths to touches. Over the course of the season, St. Brown lined up in the backfield 13 total times, with 11 of those instances coming from Weeks 13-18. Sure, the Lions lacked playmakers on offense during St. Brown’s incredible run. But to be able to put up that kind of production as a rookie, especially in a bad offense, is pretty special.

What Went Wrong

The only thing that really went wrong during St. Brown’s rookie campaign was how it started. Of course, it isn’t exactly shocking to see a rookie wide receiver get off to a slow start in year one, but St. Brown didn’t find the end zone until Week 13, the start of his tremendous stretch of games. He also only averaged 5.82 targets per game with Hockenson active, compared to 11 per game with the tight end out of the lineup. St. Brown also isn’t going to see many targets down the field, especially in this offense. He only saw four such targets during his rookie season, which was outside the top-50 wide receivers and while the Lions might throw the ball deep a little more next season, it won’t be by a lot. Goff sported the league’s lowest intended air yards per pass attempt (6.4), while his 3.0 completed air yards per pass attempt was the second-lowest mark in football. Just 8.5% of his pass attempts traveled 20 yards or more down the field, one of the lowest rates in the league.

Prognosis Entering 2022

Is St. Brown going to continue to produce like he did to end his rookie season? Of course not. And with the Lions adding DJ Chark and Jameson Williams and getting Swift and Hockenson back from injury, he suddenly has more target competition. Still, as the slot receiver running a ton of intermediate routes alongside a quarterback who sported the eighth-highest rate of intermediate passes a season ago (50.8%), I’d still pencil in St. Brown to lead this team in targets, especially after the offense implemented more of the screen game during the second half of last season. Meanwhile, when Williams is on the field alongside Chark, both players will present the vertical targets that the Lions simply didn’t have last season, giving St. Brown even more room to operate in the short/intermediate parts of the field. Entering his sophomore season, St. Brown is a high-floor WR3 for fantasy.

Dynasty Outlook

There was a lot of talk during the offseason about whether you should consider trading St. Brown in dynasty leagues after his successful rookie season, especially since many believe it was simply due to the fact that the Lions were missing so many pass-catchers. And if you traded him this offseason, I totally get it, especially after the team added more receivers. However, I also wouldn’t exactly be sprinting to trade him off my team either. History tells us that when a player produces at that level as a rookie, good things tend to happen for the rest of the career.