Prop God’s NFL Playbook: Week 12
Prop God
Thanksgiving kicks off with a battle of the NFC North, as the Lions host the Bears in the first game of the slate. At 10-1, Detroit has a lead for the division, but they have historically struggled on Thanksgiving, losing each of their last seven games. That said, they’re currently a 10-point favorite at home, looking to get the monkey off their back.
Chicago Bears @ Detroit Lions
Lions -9.5, O/U 48.5, FanDuel Sportsbook
Amon-Ra St. Brown 4+ Receptions and 25+ Receiving Yards
- At least 4 receptions and 37 receiving yards in nine of 11 (81.8%) games, averaging 6.5 on 7.3 targets for 67.9 yards.
- Team-high 92.4% route participation rate and 25% target share, third in the NFL.
- 88.7 rating on the WR/CB Matchup Tool, fifth among all receivers in Week 13, facing Kyler Gordon as the primary defender.
DJ Moore 3+ Receptions and 25+ Receiving Yards
- At least 3 receptions and 33 receiving yards in seven of 11 (63.6%) averaging 4.9 grabs on 7.3 targets for 51.5 yards.
- At least 7 targets, 7 receptions and 62 receiving yards in both games without Shane Waldron, averaging seven grabs on seven targets for 116 yards.
- Season-high 106 receiving yards in Week 12.
- Team-high 97.6% route participation rate and 19.2% target share.
- The Lions allow the most targets (25.1), receptions (15.3) and receiving yards (188.6) per game to opposing wideouts.
- Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, wide receivers see a 20% boost in production against Detroit, the third-highest rate in the league.
Keenan Allen 3+ Receptions
- At least 3 receptions in eight out of nine (88.9%) games, averaging 4.3 grabs on 7.9 targets for 40.9 yards.
- At least 8 targets, 4 receptions and 41 receiving yards in both games without Shane Waldron, averaging 6.5 grabs on 11.5 targets for 127 yards.
- Season-high in targets (15), receptions (9) and receiving yards (86) on Week 12.
- Team-high 22.4% target share and 30.4% air yard share when active.
- The Lions allow the most targets (25.1), receptions (15.3) and receiving yards (188.6) per game to opposing wideouts.
- Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, wide receivers see a 20% boost in production against Detroit, the third-highest rate in the league.
Jahmyr Gibbs 25+ Rushing and Receiving Yards
- At least 74 rushing and receiving yards in every game (11), averaging 16.9 opportunities, 16.4 touches and 104.6 yards from scrimmage.
- Season-high 21 carries in Week 12.
- Team-high 26.7% opportunity share, 30.6% touch share, and 43.3% rush share.
- The Bears are 30th in DVOA against the rush (5.6%), allowing eighth-most rushing yards (111.1) per game to opposing backfields.
- Per the DVOA-Adjusted Fantasy Points Against Tool, running backs see a 6% boost in production against Chicago, the 10th-highest rate in the league.
Detroit Lions +7.5
- The 10-1 Lions are 10-point favorites at home, leading the league in points (32.7) and point differential (+16.1) per game, ranked No. 1 overall in DVOA (47.5%) as a team, inside the top two in both offense (-20.2%, 2nd) and defense (20.2%, 2nd).
- The 4-7 Bears are 10-point underdogs on the road, ranked 24th in DVOA (-14.8%) as a team and 26th on offense (-12.5%).
