Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
After some flashes as a consistent starting quarterback in fantasy football with Miami, Tennessee Titans QB Ryan Tannehill reached another level over the last two seasons. Free from the fantasy shackles of Adam Gase, Tannehill enjoyed new life breathed into his career with a scheme tailored to his strengths with Arthur Smith.
With Smith now leading the Atlanta Falcons, Titans tight end coach Todd Downing now oversees the controls to their offense. This year's offense could look quite different if it resembles Downing's previous endeavor as an offensive coordinator (Oakland, 2017).
That said, let's dive into Tannehill's outlook for 2021 and decide if he can still deliver fantasy excellence or if we're better passing on him in drafts.
Ryan Tannehill with Arthur Smith — Fantasy Football Star
Under Smith, Tannehill has finished as the QB9 and QB11 in fantasy points per game over the last two seasons. During that duration, he’s enjoyed an offensive system that was heavily built upon play-action passing and near the top of the league in play pace. With the Titans (among all quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks), Tannehill has ranked 10th (29.9%) and first (36.4%) in play-action passing rate. This consistent wrinkle to the offense helped Tannehill as he ranked sixth (2.8) and third (5.7) among all quarterbacks in yards per attempt difference on play-action throws since 2019. The dropoff was notable last year for him on non-play-action plays as he ranked 16th (out of 44 quarterbacks) in yards per attempt (7.0). The scheme fit with Smith was like a glove for Tannehill.
The passing volume has been wretched for Tannehill with the Titans, as they ranked 31st in neutral-script passing rate (50%) since he took over. Though the pace has helped his passing attempt numbers not look nearly as bad. Since he assumed the starter’s role, the Titans have ranked sixth in neutral script pace and eighth in total pace. If the passing rate doesn’t increase and the pace drops in 2021, his passing volume could suffer.
Ryan Tannehill with Todd Downing — Fantasy Football Bust?
The biggest concerns for Tannehill and his fantasy production are that the two factors laid out above could be gone or severely diminished moving forward. The last time we saw Todd Downing direct an NFL offense, it lacked play-action and was a mediocre pace affair. In 2017 with the Raiders, Derek Carr ranked 40th (among 45 quarterbacks with 100 or more dropbacks) in play-action passing rate (14.0%). This would be incredibly detrimental for a quarterback who has succeeded with this being the lifeblood of the offense. The efficiency and yards per attempt could plummet, which would siphon off sparks that previously turned Tannehill into a fantasy flame.
Downing’s Raider offense ranked 15th in neutral-script pace and 16th in total pace. While these don’t sound like terrible marks, for a passer already dealing with a bottom three passing rate, this drop could be incredibly impactful. These factors could easily drop Tannehill from the QB1 realm into the depths of backend QB2 territory.
Fantasy football verdict
Ryan Tannehill is currently being drafted as the QB16 (125.1th overall). I’ll happily pass at that draft price, especially with Justin Fields (QB17), Tua Tagovailoa (QB19) and Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB21) all in offenses with excellent skill players surrounding them. Tannehill’s rushing upside will be pointed to as a possibility to help cover up the other problems that could arise, but it’s simply not enough to do the job. Tannehill has averaged 15.4 and 16.6 rushing yards per game each year, and his seven rushing touchdowns last year are more likely outlier than reproducible. Tannehill can’t rest on previous laurels as he’s being drafted at or near his fantasy ceiling. Take the discount and target other quarterback options after him.
