Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
Mercifully, the poking, prodding and Wonderlic-ing has ceased. With player destinations finally set, this wannabe soothsayer forges ahead previewing what newly drafted contributors could accomplish in their fresh digs for fantasy/betting audiences. Today’s rookie under the microscope: DeVonta Smith.
Follow along with the whole Rookie React series here.
Current fantasy ADP (PPR): 92.48, WR43
Current player props: 750.5 receiving yards (-115/-115, PointsBet), Offensive Rookie of the Year (+1400, DraftKings)
DeVonta Smith fantasy outlook
Upsides: There’s a reason Smith is nicknamed the ‘Slim Reaper.’ Yes, your average driveway crack could swallow him whole, but his skinniness artificially inflates defender confidence in containing him, lulling them to sleep. Speed, body control, ball tracking, suddenness, Gumby-like contortions — the man possesses multiple alpha qualities. Looks can be deceiving. Last season with the national champion Crimson Tide, he ranked top-five in all of Division I football in deep catches, deep yards, screen yards and slot yards — signs he sports plenty of branches on the route tree. He also slotted in at No. 2 in yards after catch per game (72.8) and No. 1 in yards per route run (2.8). There’s a reason he hoisted the Heisman, folks.
Downsides: At watering holes, on Zoom chats and throughout social media streams, Smith’s slender build (6-foot-1, 170 pounds) is a centerpiece of conversation. Though he posted a 78.9% success rate against press coverage (H/T Reception Perception) while playing for some small football-starved university in Tuscaloosa, questions remain whether that skill instantly translates. Additionally, Jalen Hurts’ suboptimal accuracy during his four-game starting tenure (QB37 in adjusted completion percentage) ramps up concern.
What is DeVonta Smith’s fantasy ceiling in Year 1?
Fearless forecast: 62 receptions, 858 receiving yards, 6 receiving touchdowns
Final word: Now in Philly, Smith is sure to subscribe to the Rocky diet, routinely pounding egg yolks and protein shakes in an attempt to add a pound or three. Even if he’s unable to pack on weight, he could easily emulate another svelte, Kelly green-clad wide receiver before him, DeSean Jackson. If he impresses from Day 1, he has ample opportunity to command a massive target share. Jalen Reagor and Dallas Goedert are his only primary competition. Hurts’ strong downfield arm combined with his devastating wheels could wreck defenses starting Week 1 in Atlanta. Considering his soft betting lines and affordable ADP, he’s worth investing in. Expect numbers comparable to what Tee Higgins, who finished WR28 in PPR, accumulated in his rookie campaign a season ago.
