Week 11 NFL Moneyline Underdogs
Mike Randle
NFL training camps are set to kick off, which means we are set to see how the rookie quarterbacks look on their new teams. This is one of the better quarterback classes we have seen in a few years, but will that translate to a ton of upside in fantasy football?
Let’s revisit the top rookie quarterbacks for 2024.
Rookie QB Outlooks for 2024
Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
In USC’s Air Raid offense, Williams often carried his team with his off-platform playmaking ability and arm strength. Williams now joins a Chicago Bears franchise that has yet to have a quarterback throw for even 4,000 yards in a season, but even as a rookie, he has every opportunity to change that in 2024. For starters, as the top overall selection in the 2024 NFL Draft, we know the talent and upside are both there. But because the top overall pick normally lands on the worst team in football, you don’t normally see rookie quarterbacks find themselves in ideal situations for immediate success.
That is not the case with Williams.
As a rookie, Williams will be throwing passes to DJ Moore, Keenan Allen and fellow rookie Rome Odunze, giving him arguably the top wide receiver trio in the league. And when you add D’Andre Swift and Cole Kmet to the mix, I don’t think a rookie quarterback has ever been in this good a situation right out of the gate. The upside for Williams in year one is a low-end QB1 for fantasy, but because Chicago’s defense was among the league’s best in the second half of last year, I do think the passing volume is middling. We did see Williams rush for 979 yards and 27 touchdowns in three college seasons, so he’ll also add some rushing production as a rookie.
Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
Daniels was one of the most exciting players in all of college football last season, and if any rookie signal caller has a chance of finishing inside the top-10 in fantasy, it is certainly him. Last season at LSU, Daniels tossed 40 touchdown passes, while adding over 1,100 yards and 10 touchdowns on the ground. He was easily the best deep ball passer in the country, leading all of college football in deep passing touchdowns last year (20), while his 1,347 yards on deep passes ranked fourth in the nation.
With Washington, Daniels also lands in what should be a fantasy-friendly scheme. In 2019-2021 with the Cardinals, Kingsbury’s offenses ranked sixth in early down pass rate (56.5%). During that same span, Arizona was second in average seconds per snap (25.5) and easily first in no-huddle rate (35.5%).
Drake Maye, QB, New England Patriots
While Williams and Daniels will undoubtedly start Week 1, Drake Maye might have to wait a little bit. Reports out of New England are that veteran Jacoby Brissett continues to work with the first-team offense, so we’ll have to see what happens throughout training camp. Maye has immense arm talent and should give the Patriots their best quarterback since, well, you know. His arm talent and throw power are both lightyears better than what Patriots’ fans have grown accustomed to seeing from Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe, while he also rushed for over 1,000 yards and 16 touchdowns over the past two seasons. He is unlikely to emerge as a weekly fantasy starter in this New England offense, especially given all of the question marks at the wide receiver position. But the talent is undoubtedly there.
Michael Penix Jr., QB, Atlanta Falcons
The Falcons shocked the NFL world on draft day, selecting Penix ninth overall just months after handing Kirk Cousins a massive contract. Penix won’t touch the field this season if Cousins is healthy, though the veteran is a 36-year-old quarterback coming off an Achilles tear. I’d be really excited about Penix if he were able to play in this offense that should be much improved. Bijan Robinson, Kyle Pitts and Drake London provide a ton of talent for a rookie quarterback, while the overall scheme should be much better with Zac Robinson calling plays. Penix has really good arm strength along with massive hands. He is also really, really good at avoiding sacks, though when forced off script, Penix struggles to make off-platform throws. He only completed 38.5% of his passes from outside the pocket. Clearly, the Falcons really like Penix but there is a scenario where he doesn’t take meaningful snaps until 2027.
JJ McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
Don’t let last year’s lack of volume fool you — JJ McCarthy can play. He has good arm strength and touch and has plenty of experience operating under center in a pro-style offense. McCarthy is comfortable turning his back to the defense off play-action, while also possessing the athleticism to keep defenses honest and extend plays. McCarthy is a very good fit in Kevin O’Connell’s offense, while throwing passes to Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Aaron Jones and (eventually) T.J. Hockenson would certainly be ideal. It does sound like he’ll have to compete with Sam Darnold for the starting job, but if he starts Week 1, McCarthy could be a really strong weekly streaming option in favorable matchups. After all, we did see Nick Mullens and Joshua Dobbs post fantasy relevant production in this offense just last season. In Weeks 14-18 last year, Mullens posted three top-12 scoring weeks, and Dobbs finished as QB5, QB3 and QB14 during his three-week stretch.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Hand meet glove.
Nix is a perfect fit for the offense Sean Payton wants to run. Payton’s offenses have always heavily relied on the screen game, and that was no different in 2023. 23.3% of Russell Wilson’s pass attempts went behind the line of scrimmage last year (fourth), while also posting a 12.1% screen dropback rate. Expect that to continue this season, especially if Nix starts at quarterback. 749 of his passing yards from 2023 came off screens in 2023, while 27% of his passes were behind the line of scrimmage. It is pretty unlikely that he has massive fantasy upside in this offense, but I do believe he’ll be good enough to support the pass-catchers.
