Prime-Time First TD Bets — Sunday Night Football, Week 16
Alex Christenson
The Las Vegas Raiders and Los Angeles Chargers are both defying expectations through the start of the 2021 NFL season and are a combined 5-1 entering Week 4. The Raiders are travelling to Los Angeles to face the Chargers at SoFi Stadium, and it could resemble a home game for Las Vegas with their L.A. roots and fans coming out to watch. Despite being undefeated and potentially having a large contingent of fans at the game, the Raiders opened as +3.5-point underdogs to move to 4-0 and take a commanding lead in the AFC West standings.
Las Vegas Raiders vs Los Angeles Chargers Week 4 odds
Date/Time: October 4, 8:15 p.m. ET
Arena: SoFi Stadium
How to watch: ESPN
Opening odds: Chargers -3.5 | O/U 52.5 (BetMGM)
Latest Raiders-Chargers odds
Looking for the latest odds for this matchup? Check them out.
Opening odds – Raiders vs. Chargers
After opening as 3-point favorites for Monday Night Football, the line has moved to Chargers -3.5 with over 60% of early bets on Los Angeles to win and cover the spread. The Chargers are 1-2 ATS to start the season while the Raiders are 2-1 ATS.
As for the total, it’s hovering around 52.5 with over 70% of bets on the OVER and bettors expecting a shootout in this AFC West matchup. All three Chargers games have gone UNDER the closing total while two of three Raiders games went OVER the closing total.
Quarterback analysis – Derek Carr vs. Justin Herbert
Say what you will about Raiders quarterback Derek Carr, but through three games, he’s been balling. He currently leads the NFL in total passing yards with 1,203 and has six touchdowns to two interceptions. Where Carr has seemed to progress the most is his yards per attempt when throwing the football, as he’s averaging 8.8 yards per pass compared to 7.5 in 2020. That may not seem like much but in a game of inches, a yard can be the difference between winning and losing. Carr and the Raiders are 3-1 in the last four games vs the Chargers and the loss happened after he left the game in the first quarter in Week 15 last year.
As for Justin Herbert, he’s done everything a quarterback can be asked for since being drafted out of Oregon in 2020 as the No. 6 overall pick. He broke the rookie record for touchdown passes and passing yards and in three games this season, he’s fourth in the NFL with 956 passing yards to go with six touchdown passes and three interceptions. In two games vs. the Raiders in 2020, he threw for 640 yards, four touchdowns and no interceptions. The Chargers will be relying on Herbert’s cannon for an arm in this matchup if they want to take down the Raiders.
Latest Raiders betting news & info
You may wonder if you’ve seen this before from Las Vegas Raiders of starting off a season hot but that’s happened over the previous two seasons too. The Raiders were 6-4 to start the 2019 season and then 6-3 to start the 2020 season before flaming out in both second halves. The main difference we can see from those two seasons compared to 2021 is the Las Vegas has much more playmakers at the skill positions. WRs Henry Ruggs and Hunter Renfrow along with TE Darren Waller are matchup nightmares and allow the QB Derek Carr to take more changes on offense.
Defensively, the Raiders are still a work in progress, especially for rush defense. In 2020, the Raiders were 30th in rushing touchdowns allowed and have already given up five TDs from runners in 2021. Teams that can stop the run typically have long term success in the NFL, so it remains to be seen if Las Vegas is a contender or a pretender at this juncture of the season.
Latest Chargers betting news & info
On paper, the Los Angeles Chargers should be a top-five offense for most metrics. Receivers like Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are easy targets for QB Justin Herbert along with TE Jared Cook and all-purpose back Austin Ekeler. Instead, the Chargers are only averaging 22.3 points per game in 2021 which is middle of the pack in the NFL. It may be early in the season but if the Chargers offense doesn’t get that spark consistently like it did in Week 3 vs the Chiefs, it’ll be a quick playoff exit for Los Angeles.
On defense, the Chargers secondary has been lights out through three games by limiting teams to only 201.7 yards per game which is impressive considering the Cowboys and Chiefs were two of those squads. While they’ve been able to create some pressure with the defensive line, a concerning trend is only having five sacks on 92 dropbacks by opposing quarterbacks. If L.A. can’t generate pressure, there’s only so many times the secondary can clean up the line’s mistakes. Watch for this matchup on Monday if they can get to Derek Carr.
Raiders vs. Chargers betting picks – NFL Week 4
Most of the public action is on the Chargers -3.5 and I’m not so sure with that betting line. The Raiders are feisty and have shown this year and in past seasons that they can score on anyone. Instead, I prefer to take the OVER 52.5 and watch the offensive fireworks. Here are our betting picks for Raiders vs. Chargers in Week 4.
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