Gross Bombs: NFL Props for Week 16
Josh Gross
It was an amazing Thursday night game to kick off the NFL season, with the Chiefs holding off the Ravens 27-20, thanks to Isaiah Likely’s misplaced toe.
Let’s do it again Friday.
Friday night football takes us to Brazil, where the Philadelphia Eagles will battle the Green Bay Packers. Here are my three favorite prop bets for the NFL’s first-ever game in San Paolo.
Christian Watson Over 38.5 Receiving Yards
(-110, BetMGM)
It’s time to take advantage of uncertainty. The betting public does not know which Green Bay wide receiver is the top passing option, but I feel strongly it’s Christian Watson. The 25-year-old former North Dakota State wideout stands 6-foot-4 and runs a 4.36 40-yard dash. When Watson has been on the field, he has always produced. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Watson has consistently eclipsed this number and has posted one touchdown for every two games he has played.
Friday, Green Bay faces a Philadelphia team that ranked just 17th in pass defensive DVOA last year and allowed the most pass attempts (10.4) per game and the seventh-most passing yards per game (83.8) to opposing WR1s. I believe Christian Watson is the WR1 for the Packers, and we are getting a reduced number due to the lack of clarity in target distribution to Watson, Romeo Doubs, Jayden Reed and Dontavion Wicks. The Philadelphia secondary will already be shorthanded after the recent loss of cornerback/safety James Bradberry, which opens up deep-ball attempts for Watson and quarterback Jordan Love. After tonight, there will be no doubt who the top wideout is for the Packers. Our FTN Prop Tool projects Watson for 43.1 yards. This is the last time Watson’s receiving yardage prop will be below 40 yards for the rest of the season.
Jordan Love Over 6.5 Rushing Yards
(-118, BetRivers)
The critical component of my Jordan Love preseason projection (overall QB2) is his underrated rushing ability. His 4.73 40-yard dash puts him in the upper quartile of NFL quarterbacks, and his 247 rushing yards ranked a respectable 12th at the position. Love easily crested this number in six of the first seven games last season, averaging 23.4 rushing yards per game during that span. Love also saw a huge spike in rushing yardage when the Packers were an underdog last season. Per our FTN Splits Tool, Love averaged 18.8 rushing yards per game when Green Bay was a betting underdog, and only 3.1 rushing yards when the Packers were a favorite. The Eagles also ranked just middle of the league in rushing yards allowed to quarterbacks last season.
This game carries a robust 49.5-point total, with scoring ample projected scoring opportunities. I’m staying with the Love trend from last season and will back his sneaky speed to beat this low total.
Jahan Dotson Under 14.5 Receiving Yards
(-115, DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jahan Dotson joined the Eagles late from a rare intradivision trade Aug. 23. Are we sure Jahan Dotson is even the WR3 in Philadelphia? Rookie Johnny Wilson had a stellar preseason despite suffering a concussion in a joint practice with New England and brings elite size (6-foot-6) and a substantial catch radius that Dotson does not possess. With A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, Dallas Goedert, Saquon Barkley and even running back Kenneth Gainwell as additional targets, I could see Dotson getting shut out from receptions in tonight’s opening matchup. Per FTN StatsHub, he has averaged less than 1.5 yards after catch per target in each of his two NFL seasons. As a lower-priority receiving option with limited RAC ability, I’ll fade this low number in the season opener for Philadelphia.
